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The previous statement was too brief and was criticized for implying that the price would rise no matter what. After some thought, it indeed lacked rigor. Let me break down the logic chain again: 1. This downturn clearly started internally; basically, the buying momentum was exhausted after too much of a rise. To give a recent example, Meta announced selling computing power and then dropped, followed by a drop after Apple's price increase. It's obvious that the US tech giants are starting to diverge internally. 2. Hynix's US-listed ADR was drained again. Although the ADR's high premium seemed to spark a small boom, this was based on low conversion and limited circulation. 3. This week's downturn is partly due to major negative factors that fundamentally undermine the previous scarcity, such as the expansion of the three seas' production capacity, Changxin's listing, and breakthroughs in DUV lithography machines. 4. Most importantly, after Waller took office, the Federal Reserve withdrew forward guidance on information disclosure. The market is still adapting and adjusting, making it inherently fragile. For institutional large funds, it is necessary to hedge ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. Regardless of whether there is a rate hike, they need to deleverage in advance. After all, large funds' withdrawal is not as simple as retail investors clicking a one-click sell; it requires a longer preparation window. 5. Therefore, it is very normal risk control behavior for funds to reduce risk exposure and deleverage before an unpredictable announcement. 6. Recently, the stock prices of companies with excessive AI capital expenditures, which Waller is concerned about, have already effectively undergone a rate hike through a sharp drop, but this cost was borne by shareholders. Thus, the Federal Reserve actually has no need to hike again. If it does not hike, positions reduced prematurely under Fed pressure might be added back after the announcement, which explains the earlier logic that a rebound could occur regardless of whether the Fed hikes or not. But if it really hikes, the market might panic again, though the extent may be limited since this has already been priced in. 7. Although the probability of a July rate hike is indeed increasing, according to Waller's own stance, a hike in July is not appropriate. The so-called hike to restore the Fed's authority is too trivial. With CPI still trending down, a forced hike without convincing data would only weaken the already questioned Fed credibility, let alone restore it. 8. The market has recently stopped mentioning Trump's original intention in nominating Waller. This might be a sign of Waller's successful tactics, but this political deal does exist; we just don't know when or how it will be activated. However, we know the Federal Reserve, Treasury, Waller, and Brainard have close ties and are intentionally coordinating efforts toward a soft landing. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 $MU $SKHYNIX $SKHY