#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 CPI will be released tomorrow night, will $BTC go up or down? I'm betting on down Lying on the sofa scrolling through my phone tonight, I glanced at BTC's price, hovering around 64000. It surged to 65300 during the day but couldn't hold and dropped back down. CPI will be announced at 8:30 PM tomorrow, and the market is currently waiting for this data to set the direction. Last week when the non-farm payroll data came out, new jobs added were only 57,000, nearly half less than the expected 110,000. Logically, poor employment = no rate hike = bullish for BTC. So what happened? BTC rose for less than 5 minutes then dropped. Why? Because oil prices rose again. US-Iran negotiations stalled, Brent crude surged back to $89 [IMG_3168]. When oil prices rise, inflation expectations rise too, making the Fed even less likely to ease. On one hand, weak employment suggests easing; on the other, rising oil prices discourage easing. BTC is stuck between these two forces, unable to rise or fall decisively. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in September has climbed to 51.3%, up from about 44% a week ago. ETFs are also starting to exit. This indicates funds are pulling out ahead of the CPI release. Three CPI scenarios: Below expectations (<3.3%): bullish, BTC might surge to 70000. In line with expectations (3.3%-3.5%): sideways, continuing to fluctuate between 63000-65000. Above expectations (>3.6%): bearish, possibly retesting 60000-62000. I lean toward the third scenario, with limited upside and greater downside risk. The 65000 level has been tested multiple times without holding, showing clear selling pressure. Also, oil prices are still hovering above 80, and their inflationary impact won't disappear quickly. Since 65000 has been tested several times without breaking through, I'm betting on down. I'll wait for tomorrow's data before making a move, no rush.

$DOS just tripled right after launch, and the AI infrastructure earnings season has also arrived In the afternoon, I took a look at DOS, priced at 0.4939, up 26%. It was only listed on OKX at 20:00 yesterday, followed by Gate, Binance Alpha, BingX, Bitget, and HiBT. Binance Alpha was listed on August 10, Gate went live with spot trading at 19:00 on August 10, and BingX also launched spot trading on August 11. Within a day or two, seven or eight exchanges listed it simultaneously, pushing the price up more than threefold. Looking into this project, DAPPOS is a Web3 AI operating system that packages AI research, strategy planning, and on-chain execution into one platform. Its flagship product is called xBubble, which can automatically orchestrate executable AI plans from simple user commands. Binance invested early in this project, which is among the institutions favored in the AI+Crypto sector. However, newly launched coins usually have unstable price movements. At 0.49, the price has already increased several times from yesterday’s opening low, with many short-term profit takers. The initial price discovery phase for new coins is not complete, so fluctuations are large. I have a 20x leverage position open with unrealized profit less than 1%, so I’ll watch for now. Additionally, several important AI infrastructure earnings reports are due today. Lumentum’s after-hours report is expected to show Q4 revenue of $988 million, up 105% year-over-year; CoreWeave’s Q2 revenue is expected at $2.555 billion, up 110% year-over-year. Before the reports, Coherent and Lumentum’s stock prices dropped 12% and 7% respectively, as funds exited ahead of earnings. SpaceX is also interesting. On August 6, 911 million shares will be unlocked, raising market concerns about selling pressure, but the stock price rose instead of falling, closing at 138.74 on Monday, reclaiming the IPO price of 135. Another 7% of restricted shares will unlock on August 20. With new coin listings, AI earnings, and share unlocks all happening together, the market is quite chaotic. I’ll keep this position open and focus on the direction. I’ll decide when to exit later. New coins are volatile right after launch, so don’t be greedy. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 #财报观察员：AI基建财报接力登场

The cola is still the same cola, but the contract is new Lying on the sofa at night scrolling through my phone, I saw that the KOUSDT contract was still hovering around 87, with 20x leverage and unrealized profit less than one percent. This trade is going quite steadily, just like the Coca-Cola stock, quiet but always there. Looking through the news, over the past half month, major exchanges have seemingly coordinated to line up the perpetual contract for Coca-Cola. Bybit launched it first at the end of July, offering up to 25x leverage. Binance followed on August 6th at 5 PM, with up to 20x leverage. XT also launched it at 6 PM the same day. KOUSDT quickly became a standard in the TradFi section across major platforms. Behind the rush to list it is Coca-Cola’s impressive recent earnings report. Q2 revenue was $13.4 billion, up 7% year-over-year, beating market expectations. Adjusted EPS was $0.97, 4 cents above estimates. Global case volume grew 5%, double the forecast. Zero Sugar Coke sales surged 16%, even Buffett had to say, “This business is indeed stable.” The World Cup marketing also helped a lot. Coca-Cola is a major FIFA sponsor, and this event fully introduced hydration breaks, boosting Powerade’s presence. The company simultaneously raised its full-year guidance, increasing expected organic revenue growth from 4%-5% to about 5%. Exchanges racing to list, earnings beating expectations, stock price hitting all-time highs. This is Coca-Cola — even when doing contracts in crypto, it’s backed by a legacy asset that has raised dividends for 64 consecutive years. No need to understand AI narratives or analyze candlesticks; a can of cola sold worldwide is just good business. This trade can stay open as long as it’s right; we’ll talk about exiting when the time comes. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

In the morning, I thought it was going to drop, but it directly pulled up. Opened the shop in the morning, after the morning rush, I glanced at $SOL. Last night before bed, I was thinking if this wave had peaked and should go down a bit. But when I woke up this morning and saw 76.93, it not only didn’t drop but surged up a bit. After checking the news, I realized there are two things fermenting on Solana’s side, both related to supply-side expectations. One is proposal SGP-0003, which aims to increase the daily SOL burn from 650 to 7,500–9,000. The other is doubling the inflation slowdown, bringing the 1.5% target forward to 2029. Together, these two mean 18.9 million fewer SOL issued over six years, worth $1.36 billion. Currently, about 63 million SOL have signaled support, with around 3 million more needed to enter the formal voting stage, which ends on August 18. Although it’s still some way from official approval, 73 validator nodes have already expressed their stance. On-chain data also supports this. On August 4, Solana processed 1.699 million non-voting transactions, setting a single-day record. Stablecoin transaction volume also surpassed Ethereum, showing this wave is truly solid network activity. This isn’t just pure speculation. A tenfold increase in burn volume, accelerated inflation slowdown, plus rising on-chain activity—putting these together, it’s reasonable for the price to push upward. At 76.93, the unrealized gain is nearly 20%. I haven’t moved, still holding. Waiting to see if it can reach around 80; will decide then. If it can’t hold, I’ll exit. Sometimes, the market is more patient than you think. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$SOL #标普收盘再创新高，8000点预期升温

Didn’t sell $SOL, waiting for 80, I want to watch this trade a bit more Checked my position this afternoon, 76.49, floating profit of 14%. Didn’t close, still holding. Looked through the news, Solana indeed has something brewing recently. The community is pushing two governance proposals: one to increase the daily SOL burn from 650 to 7,500-9,000, and another to double the inflation reduction speed, bringing the 1.5% target forward to 2029. Together, these two plans could reduce issuance by about 18.9 million SOL over the next 6 years, worth $1.36 billion at current prices. Before August 18, 65.16 million SOL support is needed to enter formal voting; currently, 24.94 million SOL has been received, still short by tens of millions, but Helius alone contributed over 16 million. On-chain data is also strong. Last week, non-voting transaction count broke 1.01 billion, a record high, mainly from DeFi, stablecoin transfers, and consumer applications—not driven by meme coins. The price has diverged from fundamentals for a while; SOL is still hovering around 75, below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. Technically, if it can hold the 75-77 range, the next target is around 80. It tried several times before but didn’t break through; let’s see if it can leverage the proposal momentum this time. Risks are present too. Although the burn amount increases, it’s still only about 9,000 per day, while new issuance is around 60,000 daily, so burning alone isn’t enough for deflation. The proposals also need more validator support; it’s uncertain if enough votes will be gathered before August 18. The logic makes sense but isn’t 100% certain. Closing now risks missing out; holding risks pullback. Whatever, I’ll hold and wait for 80. If it reaches, I’ll close; if not, I’ll hold and accept losses. Still holding at over 76, waiting for 80. Will decide then. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

Checked $SOL this morning, floating profit of 6%, position still held. Entry price was 75.4, current price 75.85, not much increase, but the direction is right. In the past half month, SOL has slowly climbed from around 70 to above 75, not fast but quite steady. The news about the T. Rowe Price ETF is indeed a support—an institution managing nearly two trillion dollars in assets has included SOL in the ETF, indicating institutional funds are indeed allocating, not just retail investors playing. The moves of asset management giants are usually more trustworthy than news because they represent real money position adjustments. From a technical perspective, short-term moving averages are supporting the price from below. If the 75-76 range can hold, the next target is around 80. But recently, every time SOL reaches 76-77, it gets pushed back, indicating selling pressure remains and it still needs to consolidate. A floating profit of 6% is not much, but the direction hasn't reversed. I'll hold for now and wait for it to move slowly. Slow gains are fine as long as the direction is correct. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$SOL

Asset management giant puts meme coins into ETF, $SOL still hovering around 75 Lying on the sofa scrolling through my phone at night, a piece of news caught my eye again—T. Rowe Price, an asset management giant managing nearly $2 trillion in assets, launched its first actively managed crypto ETF, ticker TKNZ, listed on the NYSE Growth Board. This ETF is interesting; it puts everything in—$BTC, $ETH, SOL, XRP, even Dogecoin and Shiba Inu are included. The reasoning is even more striking, calling meme coins the "stress test" of blockchain. Translated, it means: we don’t really know what they’re useful for, but since the market trades them, we have to allocate some too. For SOL, this is actually more important than meme coins being included. Since TKNZ is an actively managed fund that can adjust positions anytime, SOL being selected means some institutions believe it deserves allocation. But SOL’s price is still hovering around 75, barely moving. Technically, the price is below the 20 and 50 moving averages, and 74.3 to 75.4 is a dense resistance zone. It needs to break above 75 before we can talk about a reversal. Next door at BitMart, there’s still trouble withdrawing funds, and the founder came out saying they haven’t run away. One side is rushing in, the other is pulling out. Institutions are buying, small exchanges are panicking—this scene is quite interesting. I turned off my phone and didn’t look further. The 75 mark is very important for SOL. Let’s wait until it breaks above. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

I didn't expect to make a profit on this $OKB trade myself, but the ICE and burn situation is indeed top-notch. In the afternoon, I took a look at my OKB holdings, and the unrealized gains have doubled. Unfortunately, I can only enjoy a little pork knuckle rice. I should be happy, but I know deep down this has nothing to do with my skills. It's purely because of the news. The ICE strategic investment in OKX was officially announced back in June, with a valuation of about $25 billion. The NYSE parent company and OKX established a joint venture to bring tokenized stocks and futures onto the blockchain, mainly targeting U.S. users. When this news came out, OKB surged from around 80 to over 120, then later fell back to fluctuate around 90. On August 15, there will be a total supply burn event, with 279 million OKB sent to a black hole address, permanently reducing the total supply to 21 million. A significant reduction in supply is a locked-in positive expectation for the market. Looking at the market, the price has already risen quite a bit, and those who chased in have high costs. The ICE news is indeed a big positive, but the market has already digested it for a while, and the price has factored in the expectations. When the burn actually happens, if it turns into a "good news fully priced in" scenario and the price drops sharply, I can't withstand a few points of pullback on this profit. Realizing gains is what matters. #波动雷达：币种异动观察

$OKB short position floating loss of 14 points, then it rose again Lying on the sofa at night, I checked OKB again. Opening price 86.87, current price 88.12, floating loss of 14 points. Feeling annoyed, but the loss isn't big, so I'll hold on for now. After checking the news, I found out there's a reason for OKB's rise. NYSE parent company ICE (Intercontinental Exchange) invested in OKX, with a valuation of about $25 billion, and will take a seat on the board. This cooperation allows OKX to use ICE's crypto futures product line, and ICE will get real-time crypto spot price data from OKX to develop new crypto futures products. Expected to officially launch in the second half of 2026, users will be able to trade blockchain tokenized stocks and securities under ICE. After the news came out, OKB directly surged from $76 to over $120, rising nearly 50%, and trading volume exploded. Another event is coming soon. On August 15, the total supply of OKB will be officially burned down to 21 million tokens. OKT will also officially exit history, exchanged for OKB at a fixed ratio. The X Layer performance upgrade is also underway, aiming to make OKB the only Gas token on this chain. OKX has recently invested heavily to integrate wallet, exchange, and payment into X Layer, aiming to make it an ecosystem hub. Short-term, ICE news supports sentiment; mid-term, burning reduces supply; long-term, X Layer ecosystem expectations. All the news is positive, but my short position is still open. Floating loss of 14 points, it's not easy to stay calm. But the position isn't heavy, so the loss isn't too bad. Turned off the phone, didn't check anymore. Floating loss of 14 points, still holding. Will wait until after the burn on August 15 to decide. #波动雷达：币种异动观察 ——$OKB

Storage stocks played the "earnings beat expectations, stock price crashes" game again Let's start with SanDisk. Earnings revenue was 8.97 billion, beating the market expectation of 8.48 billion, and they also approved a 14 billion buyback authorization, totaling 15.5 billion in buybacks. Western Digital's revenue was 3.747 billion, also exceeding expectations. Normally, with such results in previous years, the stock price would have taken off directly, right? But SanDisk fell 15% after hours, and Western Digital dropped 11%. The reason is just one: the next quarter guidance midpoint is 10.55 billion, while Wall Street wanted 11.16 billion. A 600 million shortfall caused the stock price to collapse 15%. The key is that both companies have risen three to four times or more this year, and institutional holders have huge unrealized gains. Once the earnings report came out, even if it was just "not more than expected," they treated it as bad news to sell off. #存储股财报后下挫，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ Now look at SpaceX. With a 100 billion unlock, 911 million shares can be sold. The market previously unanimously shouted "it's going to crash," but it actually rose 6%, closing at 114.92. But looking closely, on Wednesday it dropped 14%, already having a round of sell-off. Whether it has truly bottomed or is a dead cat bounce, no one can say for sure. #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Then there's the Federal Reserve. ADP small nonfarm payrolls were 44,000, market expectation was 75,000, hitting a six-month low. But despite weak employment, the market's pricing of rate hike expectations is not so easily loosened because multiple Fed officials continue to emphasize high inflation risks and that they can't be led by single-month employment data. #联储鹰派信号升温，弱就业能否压过通胀？ Putting these three things together, the logic is very clear: good companies do not equal good stocks, good performance does not equal stock price increase. SanDisk's performance was good enough, right? A 600 million guidance shortfall caused a drop; SpaceX's 100 billion unlock was scary enough, right? But it rose; employment data was weak enough, right? Yet rate hike expectations still haven't fully retreated. Is this super cycle of storage over? No one can give a conclusion—institutions argue more fiercely than anyone, both bulls and bears agree the performance is good, but the disagreement is how long this "good" can last. $SPCX ——$SNDK ——$BTC