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If your expectation is that tonight's CPI can change the possibility of a rate hike in September, then sorry, the result may disappoint you! CME swap rates show that currently the probability of no rate change in September is 63.9%, and the probability of a rate hike is 36.1%. Although the probability of a rate hike has been suppressed below 50%, it still remains at the 50/50 policy game point. Of course, although the probability of a rate hike has not been completely eliminated, the optimistic window has not been entirely closed either. If Thursday's PPI is lower than expected, it clearly indicates moderate inflation on the corporate side. Friday's retail data shows a marginal slowdown in consumption momentum. This combination also helps further suppress the probability of a rate hike in September, because if inflation slows and consumption is moderate, the market will question why a rate hike is needed in September. This will further weaken the probability of a rate hike in September. Subsequently, if the probability of a rate hike in September falls below 30%, it means returning to a safe zone, and the market will be more optimistic. If it falls to 10%-20%, it enters a strong safe zone. Falling below 10% would mean the probability of a rate hike has been completely reversed! #7月CPI符合预期，9月还会加息吗？