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CLARITY has been delayed again, and the SEC is not waiting anymore; the day after tomorrow they will hold their own meeting to draft rules. Do you know what the sticking point is? It's quite absurd to say — "Can the president issue tokens while in office?" This issue has caused a rift between the two parties from July until now without resolution. The CLARITY bill passed the House last year and passed the Senate Banking Committee 15:9 in May this year. Everyone thought it would be enacted before the August recess. But what happened? Thune waited until 4 a.m. on August 8 to submit a cloture motion, directly pushing the ball to the afternoon of September 15. Note, the vote on September 15 is not on the bill itself but on "whether to start debate" — formal discussion hasn't even begun yet. The votes? Republicans hold 53 seats, cloture requires 60 votes, so even if all Republicans unite, they still need to pull in 7 Democrats. The three sticking points — morality clause, stablecoin yields (banks fear deposit flight), and illegal finance/DeFi — none have been resolved. Galaxy Research has cut the probability of passage this year from 50% to 30%, TD Cowen gives 25%, and Polymarket is even harsher at only 16%. Then the SEC stopped waiting. On August 14 at 10 a.m. Eastern Time, the first agenda item of their public meeting was "Regulation Crypto Assets," where they will vote on whether to release the customized issuance rules for crypto investment contracts for public comment. Atkins said in July, "If Congress doesn't legislate, we'll do it ourselves," and now it seems this is not just talk but real action. But let me be clear, don't get excited — this is just about "whether to show the draft for public criticism," and the final rules are still far off, requiring public review, revisions, and another vote, which will take at least a year and a half. Also, these rules govern token issuance and fundraising, not reclassifying BTC and ETH. Speaking of $BTC and $ETH, these two can actually breathe a sigh of relief. In the joint guidance issued by the SEC and CFTC in March, BTC, ETH, and $SOL, XRP, ADA, DOT were explicitly classified as "digital commodities" under CFTC jurisdiction. The CLARITY bill classifies them the same way. So regardless of whether the bill passes, the commodity status of Bitcoin and Ethereum is currently stable, and the meeting the day after tomorrow won't affect them. But stable or not, don't think it doesn't concern you. If CLARITY fails again on September 15, Lummis has said that market structure legislation could be delayed until 2030. What will we rely on in the meantime? Departmental rules and enforcement actions by the SEC. Departmental rules can be changed by a new chairperson, courts can overturn them; today you list commodities, tomorrow a new person can change the interpretation. That March guidance looks good now, but no one can guarantee its effectiveness in court. So my judgment: BTC and ETH won't be directly impacted in the short term; they will proceed as usual, but as long as regulatory uncertainty remains, institutional entry will continue to be delayed. The real pain is for small and medium projects — without finalized fundraising rules, compliance costs hang over them, issuing tokens feels like stepping on a landmine. The meeting the day after tomorrow is worth watching, mainly to see where the draft draws the boundary of "investment contracts," whether there are safe harbors and registration exemptions, but don't treat this as a bullish signal; it's just a procedural vote. September 15 is the real checkpoint. If they can get 7 Democrats, it lives; if not, it dies. Personally, I'm not optimistic; the morality clause is just political posturing by both parties, and no one wants to concede first. Just wait, it's not the first time we've waited. #CLARITY延期，SEC拟推进监管规则补位