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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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矿工改行当“房东”:91亿美元AI大单背后,比特币的供应逻辑正在被改写 如果一家比特币矿企,以后不靠卖币赚钱了—— 你还会用“矿工”的估值去看它吗? 8月10日,Riot Platforms扔出了一颗炸弹。 AI巨头Anthropic——就是那个做Claude的公司——跟Riot签了一份20年的算力租约。 91亿美元,保底。 如果两次续约选项全部执行——161亿美元。 Riot要做的很简单:把德州Rockdale园区191兆瓦的电力容量,租给Anthropic跑AI。 消息一出,Riot盘后股价暴涨25%,冲到24.40美元。 一个比特币矿企,靠卖“电”而不是卖“币”,把自己送上了25%的涨幅。 但你如果以为这是个简单的利好故事——那就太天真了。 Riot同一天发布了二季度财报。 营收1.742亿美元,超预期。但净亏损2.372亿美元,比市场预期的亏损多出近一倍。 亏2.37亿,股价涨25%。 市场在赌什么? 赌的是Riot不再是一家“矿企”了。 这背后是一场正在发生的结构性迁徙。 2026年上半年,Riot已经卖掉了9,665枚比特币,套现7.325亿美元。 为什么要卖? 因为挖矿不赚钱了。 美股上市矿企的含折旧挖矿成本已经飙到11.2万美元。而比特币现在多少钱?6.4万左右。 挖一枚亏一枚。 所以矿企集体在找出路。Core Scientific的AI数据中心收入从860万暴涨到7750万美元,同比增9倍。IREN、Hut 8、Cipher Mining——全在转。 这不是选择,是生存。 而Riot这单91亿的生意,把“转型”推到了一个新高度。 Bernstein的分析师算了一笔账:AI托管业务占Riot目标企业价值的84%,比特币挖矿只占11%。 84% vs 11%。 这还是一只“比特币矿企”吗? H.C. Wainwright直接把Riot的目标价从25美元上调到40美元。摩根士丹利给出36美元的目标价,评级“增持”。 华尔街在重新定义这家公司。 那这对我们持有比特币的人意味着什么? 三件事,件件扎心。 第一件:矿工卖币压力在减轻。 以前矿工是比特币的“原生卖家”——为了付电费、买新矿机,每个月必须卖出大量比特币。 现在不一样了。Riot 2026年上半年卖了9665枚比特币去砸AI基建。但这笔钱砸下去之后,换来的是20年、91亿美元的稳定租金收入。 一旦AI租约开始产生现金流,矿工就不需要靠卖币来维持运营了。 卖币压力减轻 → BTC抛压减少。 第二件:矿企的估值逻辑变了。 以前市场怎么看矿企?看算力、看矿机数量、看每枚币的挖矿成本。 以后呢?看电力容量、看长期合同、看客户信用。 资本市场对比特币矿企的估值一直是打折的,EBITDA乘数通常只有6到12倍。 但AI数据中心公司呢? 10倍以上。 同样的资产——电、土地、机房——贴上不同的标签,估值差了将近一倍。 第三件:也是最重要的一件—— 比特币的“供应端叙事”正在被改写。 过去十年,“减半→供应减少→价格上涨”是比特币最核心的叙事。 但如果矿工不再依赖卖币来维持现金流——减半的供应冲击,还有那么大吗? 这个问题,现在没人能回答。 Riot这笔交易,2028年6月才能全面商业运营。 91亿美元是20年的总收入,平摊到每年也就4.5亿。而Riot现在的年营收7亿左右。 远水,解不了近渴。 而且市场已经开始降温了。消息公布后第二天,Riot股价在常规交易中回吐了部分涨幅。 华尔街对矿企AI转型的态度,已经从“狂热”转向“理性”。早期AI公告平均能引发24%的股价波动,现在只剩10%。 讲故事的阶段过去了,现在要看真金白银。 所以回到开头那个问题: Riot还是一家“比特币矿企”吗? 从收入结构看——还不是。 从估值逻辑看——已经开始变了。 从长远看——可能再也不是了。 矿工正在从“卖币的人”变成“收租的人”。 这件事对比特币意味着什么,可能需要重新想一想了。 你觉得矿企转型AI,是好事还是坏事? $BTC $ETH $SOL #比特币矿企Riot获Anthropic算力大单
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
From 25 million to 1 million, BlackRock slashes the threshold by 96%, who’s next to board? If you have 100 bitcoins, what would you do? Hold on? Sell to cash out? Or swap for an ETF? Before, you had no choice. Want to swap for IBIT shares? You needed at least $25 million worth of BTC. Not 2.5 million, but 25 million. That was a club only for whales and top-tier institutions. Now? 1 million dollars. BlackRock just cut the threshold by 96% in one stroke. On August 10, Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas tweeted: BlackRock’s digital asset head Robbie Mitchnick confirmed the minimum physical bitcoin redemption threshold for IBIT dropped from $25 million to $1 million. And Mitchnick also said: the goal is to further lower the threshold in the future, ultimately to remove it entirely. In plain language: 1 million is just the start; eventually, there will be no threshold. But you need to understand one thing— This mechanism isn’t for retail investors. Physical redemption is done through Authorized Participants (APs); retail can’t directly swap BTC for IBIT shares. So who is BlackRock waiting for? Three types: First: Early players holding large amounts of BTC. Those mined ten years ago or bought for a few dollars, now wanting to cash out without paying capital gains tax. Physical redemption lets them convert BTC directly into ETF shares without selling first, avoiding tax issues. Second: Family offices and mid-sized institutions. 25 million was out of reach, but 1 million is doable. Third: All traditional funds still on the sidelines. BlackRock is telling them—thresholds are now rock bottom, what’s your excuse not to get in? The timing of this move is interesting. Right when the threshold was announced to be lowered, the bitcoin spot ETF just experienced a mini surge with net inflows of $854 million over five consecutive trading days. IBIT alone attracted about $694 million in one week, over 80% of total weekly inflows. But then, on August 11, ETFs saw a net outflow of $144.6 million, with IBIT itself losing $53.6 million. Money came in, then went out. Funds are hesitant. The market is watching. BlackRock lowering the threshold now is a call: stop hesitating, come in. Honestly— This is bigger than most people think. BlackRock manages over $10 trillion in assets. It’s not doing charity. It cut the threshold from 25 million to 1 million not to make it easier for you, but to make it easier for itself. Why? Because the smoother the physical redemption mechanism, the better the ETF liquidity, the smaller the price spread, the more buyers there are. More buyers mean more management fee income for BlackRock. This is a positive feedback loop. And BlackRock just expanded the entry point of that loop by 25 times. So what does this mean for BTC? Short term, not necessarily a price increase. Lowering the threshold doesn’t automatically create demand. Institutions will still watch and wait. But long term, this is a major strategic move. When the world’s largest asset manager lowers the bitcoin ETF entry threshold from 25 million to 1 million and says "we’ll lower it to zero eventually"— It’s telling the world: bitcoin is no longer a niche asset; it’s mainstream allocation. A final note— What used to be a game only whales could play is now open to mid-sized institutions. Tax optimization that required over 25 million is now accessible at 1 million. What BlackRock is doing isn’t serving existing bitcoin holders. It’s expanding the dock, waiting for the next fleet to arrive. The question is— Will you be among the next to board? Or will you stay on the shore, watching the ship sail away? $BTC $ETH $SOL #贝莱德IBIT换购门槛降至100万美元

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