Gold surged above 4400 three times in two days! Tonight's CPI is the "quality inspection report" for this rebound
On the morning of August 12, spot gold once again broke through $4400/oz, marking the third time in two days it has stood above the 4400 level.
COMEX gold quoted at $4401.3, up $291.6 for the week, a 7.2% increase, the largest weekly gain since January.
Silver went even crazier—COMEX silver futures surged over 10% in a single week.
Gold took half a year to fall from 5600 to below 4000, but only two weeks to climb back from 4000 to 4400.
Why?
Three engines are pushing simultaneously.
Engine one: Nonfarm payrolls shocked, rate hike expectations collapsed.
US July nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000.
What was the market expectation? An increase of 88,000.
Expected +80,000, actual -20,000—a gap of 100,000 people.
Even worse, May and June data were revised down by 103,000.
The job market cooled, and the Fed’s September rate hike expectations were directly knocked down. The dollar weakened, US Treasury yields declined—the tightening noose on gold loosened.
Engine two: The "final kick" in the Strait of Hormuz was blocked.
On August 5, the US Treasury Secretary said "an agreement could be reached within a day or two."
By August 10, Trump turned to demanding compensation from Iran.
From "close to agreement" to mutual compensation demands took only five days.
Iran’s conditions were clear: permanently stop military actions, lift all sanctions, return frozen assets, and pay war reparations.
The US wanted to first discuss passage through the strait, but Iran insisted on bundling all issues together.
No agreement.
Adding fuel to the fire—on August 9, Yemen’s Houthi forces used drones to precisely strike Saudi Aramco’s refinery in Jizan.
Energy risk premium reignited.
Engine three: Central banks are frantically buying gold.
China’s central bank increased gold holdings for the 21st consecutive month; by the end of July, gold reserves reached 76.08 million ounces, up 640,000 ounces month-over-month.
Global central banks’ net gold purchases in Q2 were 288.9 tons, a 62% year-over-year surge, setting a Q2 record.
The world’s smartest money is continuously scooping up gold above $4000.
With all three engines firing, gold soared from 4000 to 4400 in two weeks.
But now, the biggest variable has arrived—
Tonight at 8:30 PM, US July CPI.
Market expectations: overall CPI year-over-year 3.4%, core CPI year-over-year down from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Two scenarios:
Scenario one: Mild CPI → rate hike expectations continue to cool → gold price challenges 4500.
Scenario two: CPI exceeds expectations → tightening concerns reignite → technical pullback, possibly retesting 4300.
This week’s gold surge is driven by "expectations."
Nonfarm payroll shock is an expectation, the Hormuz deadlock is an expectation, central bank gold buying is real buying.
But CPI is "reality."
Between expectations and reality, there will be a reconciliation tonight.
Gold took half a year to fall from 5600 to below 4000, but only two weeks to climb back from 4000 to 4400.
Tonight’s CPI is the "quality inspection report" for this rebound.
On-chain data is also hinting at something.
OnchainLens detected that Abraxas Capital transferred 25,400 XAUT (Tether Gold) in the past three days, worth about $110 million. The related wallet cluster holds about 137,900 XAUT, approximately $600 million.
Big money is repositioning.
What are they waiting for?
Waiting for 8:30 PM tonight.
$BTC $XAU $XAUT#黄金站上4400美元，避险需求升温
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