Post

Kshsb
Kshsb
Show original
$ETH 现在最有意思的地方,不是它涨不涨,而是“有人已经开始偷偷接了,但价格还没给答案”。 现在$ETH 大约 1900美元,而8月6日美国现货ETH ETF又录得约 9215万美元净流入,已经连续第三天净流入。更有意思的是,ETH最近并没有跟着资金流入直接起飞,反而一直在1800多到1900附近磨。 所以我现在对$ETH 的判断其实很简单:1900美元不是终点,是分水岭。 短线先看 1890—1900美元能不能真正站稳,站稳之后,下一步看 1920—1960美元;如果连1900都反复站不住,那就别急着喊反转,下面 1828美元附近是第一道比较关键的支撑,再往下就是1800美元整数关口。近期ETH本身就在1828—1890附近压缩震荡,市场正在等方向选择。 但我真正比较在意的,是ETF资金开始持续回流,而不是单日突然冲进来一笔钱。7月ETH现货ETF整体也出现了资金净增加,机构对ETH的配置逻辑正在慢慢发生变化。与此同时,ETH的质押比例已经超过34%,这意味着市场上真正可以随时拿出来卖的筹码,并没有想象中那么多。 所以如果让我现在给ETH下一个判断: 💎 1800附近守住,结构还在; ⚔️ 1900站稳,开始有意思; 🚀 1960突破,才算真正把短线趋势拧回来; 🔥 2000重新站稳,市场情绪才可能明显改变。 我反而不太担心ETH现在慢。 真正值得怕的,是价格涨得飞快,ETF却没人买。 现在恰恰相反——钱已经开始回来,价格还在装死。 这才是ETH接下来最值得盯的地方。
Kshsb
Kshsb
$BTC is currently most worth watching, not necessarily for the price, but whether the funds are willing to continue coming in. A recent interesting phenomenon is that BTC is still hovering around $64,000, but institutional funds have not completely withdrawn. On August 5th, the US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net inflow of about $244 million, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing about $197 million; the ETH ETF also saw a renewed net inflow of about $60.86 million. The price hasn't moved much, but money is still flowing in, and this divergence is actually worth paying attention to. This means the current market is a bit like "the people haven't left yet, but the living room is already cooling down." BTC hasn't broken out into a strong trend, altcoins haven't fully taken over, and funds clearly prefer to stay in the most liquid asset first. So I'm actually not in a hurry to chase the rally now. Whether BTC can firmly hold above $65,000 is much more important than some altcoin rising 20% today. ETH is another variable worth watching. ETH is currently around $1900, and recently ETFs have seen capital returning. If ETH can continue to outperform BTC going forward, the market will look more like it's slowly shifting from "defending BTC" to "risk appetite spreading." My own observation sequence is simple: 🏅 BTC: Watch institutional funds and the battle around $65,000 💎 $ETH: Watch if ETF funds can sustain, not just a one-day pulse ⚡ $SOL: Watch if funds come in after risk appetite rises 🧠 AI/DeFi: Now is better for finding strong targets, not for blindly buying sectors 💰 Stablecoins: What’s truly worth long-term tracking is whether on-chain liquidity continues to expand It's not that there is no market movement now, but the movement hasn't spread yet. The easiest mistake to make at this time is to see a coin suddenly jump 20% and then think "the bull market has arrived." Many times, the bull market hasn't arrived yet; someone just lit the fireworks first.

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!