Remember the BTC plunge when the yen first announced an interest rate hike?
This time, the US couldn't sit still, and Japan and the US jointly intervened in the yen exchange rate.
The financial background behind this is actually quite interesting.
The yen-to-dollar exchange rate once fell to a historic low of 163.
The Japanese government spent over 11 trillion yen in a single month to support the market.
According to past patterns, Japan's most direct method to forcibly strengthen the yen is to sell its US Treasury holdings to exchange for dollars, then buy yen in the foreign exchange market.
But this move directly stepped on the US's tail.
Japan is the largest overseas creditor of the US. If Japan starts large-scale selling of US Treasuries to support the yen, it would directly push up US Treasury yields.
For the US Treasury, which carries nearly $40 trillion in massive debt, a sharp increase in bond issuance and borrowing costs is absolutely unacceptable.
This time, the US unprecedentedly intervened jointly, essentially defusing Japan's intervention.
To prevent Japan from touching the US Treasury holdings, the US simply pulled its allies to intervene together, even selling euros and other foreign exchange assets to buy yen.
This both lifted the yen in the market, pushing the exchange rate back near 158, and maintained the stability of the US Treasury market.
The next key variable the market needs to watch is the 10-year Japanese government bond yield.
If the JGB yield rises too quickly to 3%, it means Japan's long-term interest rates are being pulled too high, and the market and debt pressure will directly become unsustainable.
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