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Kshsb
Kshsb
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它解释了为什么 ETH 现在没有涨,但没有回答 ETH 未来值不值得。 很多人把以太坊理解成一家公司,然后问它今年赚了多少钱。 但我更愿意把它理解成一套金融基础设施。 现在的问题不是链上没有价值,而是这部分价值到底有没有回流到 ETH 本身。 举个例子。 高速公路每天车流量越来越大,并不代表收费站一定赚得越来越多。 如果后来大部分车辆都改走免费的辅路、高架桥,收费站的收入自然就会下降。 L2 有点像这些辅路。 大量交易被迁移到了 L2,因为速度更快、手续费更低,用户体验更好。 所以今天很多稳定币转账、DeFi 交互,主网确实吃不到以前那么多 Gas。 这也是市场一直质疑 ETH 的地方。 生态越来越繁荣,但价值并没有完全回流到 ETH。 不过,我认为事情也不能只看到这一面。 L2 并不是独立存在的。 无论是 Optimism、Arbitrum,还是 Base,它们最终都需要把数据提交到以太坊主网完成最终结算,安全性也来自 ETH。 所以 ETH 更像是在提供整个生态的安全层,而不是负责处理每一笔交易。 真正的问题就变成了: 作为整个生态的安全层,ETH 到底应该拿走多少价值? 如果未来越来越多价值都留在 L2、Rollup 和应用层,而 ETH 只能收一点点”过路费”,那么市场给它现在的估值,也许并没有错。 但如果未来以太坊继续优化价值捕获机制,让整个生态的发展能够更多反馈到 ETH,比如更多 ETH 被销毁、更多 ETH 被质押、更多结算需求回到主网,那么市场今天对 ETH 的定价,可能又会完全不一样。 所以我现在思考的问题,已经不是 ETH 有没有生态。 这一点几乎没人怀疑。 我真正关心的是: 以太坊生态创造出来的价值,最终到底有多少能够属于 ETH。 因为这,才是真正决定 ETH 长期价格的核心。 $ETH
Kshsb
Kshsb
Platform X said someone replied to me, but I only half agree with this view. Indeed, many stablecoin transfers have now moved to L2 and internal exchange settlements, so the mainnet Gas fees are not fully captured. This is one of the reasons why ETH's value capture has been questioned. But what I care more about is the future. No matter how cheap L2 is, it ultimately has to submit data to the Ethereum mainnet and complete final settlement. Essentially, the security still comes from ETH. So the real question is not "whether there is Gas now," but how much of the value created by the entire Ethereum ecosystem in the future can actually flow back to ETH itself. If more and more value stays on L2, Rollups, or the application layer in the future, and ETH can only collect a small portion of the "rent," then the market undervaluing it is reasonable. But if the future value capture mechanism continues to improve, allowing the entire ecosystem's prosperity to feed back more to ETH, then the current pricing logic might be rewritten. Therefore, I think the biggest uncertainty for ETH is not whether there is an ecosystem, but whether the value can truly flow back to ETH.

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