Post

The next four days are going to be lively again. Based on the earnings reports released in the past few days, it really is a case of whoever reports, drops. Let's see if the next few can stop the downward trend. A bunch of major news is hitting all at once: the Federal Reserve meeting, Microsoft and Meta earnings, GDP, PCE inflation, plus Amazon and Apple earnings coming one after another. Google, Tesla, and Nvidia have basically submitted their reports early. Google's free cash flow turned negative, Tesla's profits were cut in half. Don't be fooled by Nvidia's impressive paper gains of tens of billions; with its absurd valuation and highly concentrated customer base, these hidden risks are genuinely unsettling upon closer inspection. Wednesday brings the main event, with interest rates likely to remain unchanged. The focus will be on Powell's statements. My view is that he will still sound hawkish but won't dare to truly tighten liquidity. Right now, a bunch of tech companies are aggressively investing in AI; a forced tightening would impact the entire computing power sector. Microsoft is closely watching Azure's growth rate; if it falls below 38%, I would choose to reduce my position. Meta's market has been sluggish for the past six months; if Zuckerberg announces continued heavy spending on AI again, funds will likely flee directly. Thursday's pressure is even greater, with GDP and PCE data released before the market opens. The market's biggest fear now is stagflation—economic slowdown with persistently high inflation. If inflation stays around 2.5%, high-valuation tech stocks will inevitably continue to face pressure. Bank of America estimates Amazon AWS growth at 33%. If the data meets expectations, Nvidia, SK Hynix, and Micron in the computing power and storage chain still have a chance; if not, the entire sector will have to endure volatility. Don't listen too much to Cook's optimistic projections; just focus on Apple's real sales in the Chinese market. In the past two years, the market was willing to buy into the AI story, but investors have become more realistic now, only recognizing solid cash flow. The next few days will be a big test. I plan to avoid those that keep burning cash without delivering returns or have a single customer structure. Back to today's market: $BTC is currently fluctuating around 65200-65400, with 65700 as the observation line after a breakout, and 66200-66500 has become a new resistance zone. $ETH is also slowly climbing, from around 1850 to about 1880 now. Overall, the upward trend line provides some support, but the rebound strength is very weak; the bulls have no real power. Also, although ETF funds occasionally flow in, the overall "price does not follow," indicating that existing funds are leaving rather than new funds entering. #财报观察员：谁能看懂谷歌和特斯拉这次的真实答卷？