Talking about the current adjustments to my positions: 1. Gold: Bought at 4150, closed at 4400. It's not that I think gold won't continue to rise, but I believe the simplest and fastest phase earlier is basically over. Now there is structural resistance above; it might continue to rise, but a pullback or sideways consolidation is more likely; (Chart 1) At the same time, since gold is a large market cap, low volatility trading asset, the position size tends to be relatively large, which is not very suitable for capital allocation, so I closed it. 2. Crude oil: A few days ago I posted about waiting for an opportunity in crude oil. Now I think it's time to open a position (short). The chart was posted in the community this afternoon; (Chart 2) 3. $LITE: Opened a long position ① From a technical analysis perspective, it's about wave 1, waiting for wave 2, then trading wave 3. Now wave 1 is done, wave 2 has arrived, so there's no reason not to get in. However, since yesterday's entry was a bit early (850), I took a loss and rebuilt the position today; (Chart 3) ② Yesterday, I posted the earnings report date under the Guanghulian analysis post, thinking this pullback is a normal risk-off move before the earnings report from previous profit-taking. Also, because this stock's volatility is inherently high, the drop looks significant; Since it has already dropped before the earnings report, providing a safety buffer, it's time to consider holding the long position through the earnings, but with slightly controlled position size in case it continues to fall after the report, leaving room for adjustments. 4. Transferred $BTC to $ETH long positions and closed them. I still believe BTC will at least test 70,000, and ETH will definitely start with 2 (i.e., 20,000+), but these two are moving too slowly, with low volatility of 1%-2% back and forth. Holding them requires daily attention, so I decided not to hold anymore as there's no short-term speculative value. In fact, from early June until now, BTC has been in a poor market, suitable only for spot trading, not speculation. Report complete!

The circle pattern, which has been consolidating sideways within a price range for over a month, is either a large-scale continuation of a downtrend or a bottoming range. Personally, I lean towards the latter. Analysis after the rebound: 1. Since the drop from 140, the POC is at 63, VAL at 58, and VAH at 88; 2. The range where the structure coincides with Fibonacci is 77-90, corresponding to the 0.236-0.382 Fibonacci retracement of this decline; 3. At the same time, around 90 is also the neckline of the M-top; The above evidence indicates that this range will be a significant resistance zone, with a range of about 20%; Therefore, once the rebound starts, this range will be the first level to be tested.

Bitcoin is moving too sluggishly, let's take a look at $ETH Ethereum. 1. For short-term support, watch this black moving average line, the 4H MA200. If it breaks below here, there's a high probability it will retest the upper edge of the previous consolidation zone, around 1783; (chart) 2. This level is about 5% below the current price, which is quite significant for the crypto market with such low volatility. So if it breaks here, close long positions first.

Woke up to find gold at 4400, closed the position; Speculative position, always profitable when selling high, this was originally planned to close a wave at this level. Total position size has decreased, margin increased, and there is more room for operation now.

If crypto doesn't have long positions at the low points, there's really no need to get involved in the game at this position; just hold the spot assets. Fluctuating about one point up or down per day, I really want to curse. Originally, it seemed like $TAO was going to make some moves over the weekend, so I added a bit, but as soon as Monday opened, the big brother's coin started shaking again, 😞, I'm done watching. I set a stop loss at the original price of 196, whatever happens, happens. The hot spots aren't there, just grinding every day, really hard to participate! Everyone is pessimistic about you, and you yourself aren't doing any better!

Discussing the trade-off between slippage and opportunity cost in trading, focusing on two points: 1. Taking a dead-long position as an example, in the early bear market, minimize slippage since most opportunities are false; 2. In the late bear market, opportunity cost becomes extremely valuable, so it's better to accept slippage and trial errors to seize opportunities; 3. The same approach applies to breakouts after transitioning from high volatility to bottom volatility, as well as breakouts following flat moving averages or flat chart patterns.

$CRCL #CRCL First get stuck, then study, the veterans in the crypto circle do not deceive me. Just came across this news (Image 1), which is something everyone has been wondering for the past few months whether it could change, CC says no change. From the actions of Circle's management over the past few months, I can only say that viewing this company purely from a speculative perspective still shows a limited vision. They are crazily building infrastructure and expanding business, desperately expanding channels. The ambition of this company still looks quite big at present, following the path of: "store up grain widely, wait to claim kingship, if you want to get rich, first build roads," and their execution is extremely strong! Looking at the technical side: it has been consolidating below $70 for 5 weeks. During these 5 weeks, it has experienced various FUD and negative news, but it has always maintained above $60, which indicates that $60 is a consensus price. Volatility means that the drop will be fierce, and the rise will also be impressive; the one you said that dropped sharply and didn’t rise when Bitcoin rose is not CRCL, it’s a lousy altcoin!