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Understand the current situation with three sets of data: employment collapsed, ETF is back, CPI is yet to come August 7, Friday night. The nonfarm payroll data came out — a decrease of 23,000. What was the market expectation? An increase of 88,000. A difference of 110,000. You stare at the screen, what’s your first reaction? "It's over, the economy is going to collapse." Then you look at Bitcoin — standing above $65,000. You check the rate hike probability — CME data shows the probability of maintaining the rate in September jumped to 55.6%. The worse the employment, the more excited the market. Does something feel off? Don’t get excited just yet. Let’s connect these three sets of data. 【Data ① — Employment: Settled】 July nonfarm: -23,000 vs expected +88,000 May data: revised down from +129,000 to +63,000 June data: revised down from +57,000 to +20,000 A total revision down of 103,000 jobs over two months. This is not just "below expectations," it’s directly negative. But more strangely — the unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%. Employment decreased, but unemployment rate fell? Because 264,000 people exited the labor market. Labor force participation rate fell to 61.4% — the lowest since early 2021. Excluding the two pandemic years, this is the lowest since 1976. In plain language: it’s not that employment improved, it’s that people simply stopped looking. Wage growth also collapsed — average hourly earnings rose only 3.2% year-over-year, the lowest since May 2021. Signal: the job market cooled down. But the cooling is unusual. 【Data ② — Capital: Happening now】 In the week the nonfarm data was released, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a net inflow of $854 million. The strongest weekly inflow since April. BlackRock’s IBIT alone absorbed $694 million, accounting for over 80% of the total. From August 3 to 7, there were consecutive days of net inflows. Institutional funds are quietly building positions around $65,000. Signal: smart money re-entered the market after the nonfarm data. 【Data ③ — Inflation: About to be revealed】 August 12, Wednesday, 8:30 PM Beijing time. US July CPI will be announced. Market expectations: Overall CPI annual rate: from 3.5% down to 3.4% Core CPI annual rate: from 2.6% down to 2.5% Looks like cooling down, right? But don’t celebrate too early. Economists expect July core service inflation to rise 0.3% month-over-month — while from May to June this figure was flat. Bank of America warns: the rebound in core service inflation may keep September rate hikes on the table. Citibank says: if inflation softens, September rate hikes are basically ruled out. BofA says: if service inflation rebounds, September hikes are still possible. Two top investment banks, completely opposite views. Now put the three sets of data together: Employment → settled. Cooled, but not enough. Capital → inflowing. Positive, but not explosive yet. CPI → unrevealed. This is the trump card deciding whether the September FOMC will hike rates. The current market is like a student the night before an exam: Nonfarm is the mock test, failed it, then breathed a sigh of relief. ETF is the cram school, signed up, feeling a bit reassured. But CPI is the real final exam. Failing the mock test doesn’t mean the final is safe. Signing up for cram school doesn’t guarantee passing. Fail the final, all before was wasted. CME data shows the current probability of a September rate hike is 44.4%. Almost a coin toss. If CPI data is below expectations — September hike probability may drop below 30%, BTC could surge to $68,000 or even $70,000. If CPI data is above expectations — September hike probability may jump back above 55%, BTC could instantly drop to $62,000 or even lower. At the $65,000 level, there’s a $3,000 range up or down. The direction depends entirely on that one number Wednesday night. Finally, here’s a suggestion — Employment data gives directional expectations, ETF inflows provide capital endorsement. But CPI is the ultimate judge. Before Wednesday — Hold your hands. Wait for the data to land. Don’t bet all your chips on the mock test score the night before the final. Around $65,000, some are buying, some are selling. Who’s right, who’s wrong? The answer will be revealed at 8:30 PM Wednesday night. $BTC $ETH $XAU #本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？