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两天暴涨23%，空头血亏90亿：SPCX这波反弹，是估值修复还是逼空绞杀？你见过一只股票，在史上最大规模解禁的前一天暴跌14%，然后连续两天暴涨23%吗？ SpaceX做到了。 8月4日盘后，SpaceX交出上市后首份财报——营收78.14亿美元，同比增长92%，远超预期的69亿美元；净亏损从10.08亿收窄至5.41亿；调整后EBITDA从12亿飙到35亿，同比增长191%。怎么看都是一份漂亮的财报。然后8月5日，股价暴跌13.6%，收于108.27美元，创上市以来收盘新低。市值较225美元的历史高点，蒸发超过1万亿美元。你身边有没有这种人——看着营收翻倍、亏损减半，兴冲冲冲进去抄底，然后一夜亏掉15%？因为你们看的根本不是一个东西。你看的是营收。市场看的是资本开支。二季度资本开支183.69亿美元，是上年同期28.25亿美元的6.5倍。其中158.28亿美元投向AI算力基础设施，占资本开支总额86.2%，是AI业务季度收入的6.2倍。星链赚的钱（42.91亿营收、16.56亿利润），全填进AI和航天的坑里还不够。 AI业务亏12.57亿，航天业务亏5.42亿。三块业务，只有星链在赚钱。另外两个是吞金兽。马斯克在电话会上说：年底算力超2吉瓦，明年底接近10吉瓦。翻译成人话就是：烧钱才刚刚开始。市场用脚投票——财报后暴跌14%。但故事没完。比财报更可怕的是解禁。 8月6日，首批9.115亿股限售股解禁，可流通股从6.39亿股暴增至15.5亿股。按当时股价算，约1000亿美元的潜在卖压。这是美国资本市场历史上最大规模的一次锁定期解禁。空头疯了。根据S3 Partners数据，截至7月29日，空头持仓达2.193亿股，占可流通股的34%。可借出的股票中95%已被借出。空头名义规模甚至超过特斯拉的空头押注。这不是做空。这是all-in赌SpaceX崩盘。空头此前累计账面收益一度超过90亿美元。然后，反转来了。 8月6日，解禁日。股价不但没崩，反而上涨6.14%，收于114.92美元。全天成交2.55亿股。 8月7日，继续暴涨15.83%，收于133.11美元。两天累计涨幅约23%，市值增加超过3270亿美元。距离135美元的IPO发行价，只差不到2美元。剧本完全反着走。为什么？三个字：空头回补。我们来拆一下这个局的逻辑—— 第一步：财报前空头疯狂加仓到34%，赌财报不及预期 + 解禁砸盘。第二步：财报其实很好（营收超预期、亏损收窄），但资本开支吓人，股价跌了14%。空头账面大赚。第三步：解禁日到了。空头等着早期员工和投资者砸盘。第四步：砸盘没来。早期投资者不但没卖，反而有人在买。第五步：股价不跌反涨。空头慌了——2.19亿股空头仓位，股价每涨1美元，亏2.19亿美元。第六步：空头开始抢着平仓。平仓就是买入。买入推高股价。股价越高，更多空头被迫平仓。这就是逼空（short squeeze）的经典剧本。更狠的是期权市场的信号。周四，有专业交易员做了这么一笔操作—— 卖出价值1200万美元、行权价90美元、明年6月到期的看跌期权，同时买入价值430万美元、行权价220美元、相同到期日的看涨期权。净收取770万美元权利金。翻译成人话：这人押注SPCX未来10个月不会再跌20%，同时押注股价有机会翻倍。当天下午，另一笔类似交易：卖出75美元看跌期权、买入185美元看涨期权，2028年1月到期。聪明钱在用“卖put+买call”的组合，重金押注SpaceX见底。周五，期权总成交量达到224万份合约，其中看涨期权130万份，创历史新高。资金正在重新涌入。但别高兴太早。目前仍有超过2.5亿股被卖空，占可交易股票的约16%。空头只是被逼了一波，还没死绝。而且后续还有解禁——8月20日另有3.19亿股可能解禁，9月约7亿股，10月接近7亿股。这轮反弹是“利空出尽”的估值修复，还是“逼空行情”的短线脉冲？取决于两件事：第一，空头还会不会继续加仓反扑。第二，后续几轮解禁，早期投资者到底卖不卖。说句扎心的话：这轮SPCX的剧本，本质上是一群赌徒在赌一家公司的生死。空头赌SpaceX撑不起估值，多头赌马斯克能兑现承诺。两边都在下重注，但筹码完全不对称—— 空头手里是2.5亿股借来的股票，随时可能被逼平仓。多头手里是马斯克的“2030年万亿美元营收”大饼。一个靠交易结构撑着的反弹，能走多远？ $SPCX $TSLA $BTC #财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？

Oil prices just fell for two days and then rebounded, the Hormuz agreement hasn't been signed yet—put your hand off bottoming BTC for now A couple of days ago, did you think— Oil prices fell, inflation would drop, the Fed would ease, and BTC would take off? And then? On August 7, Brent crude rose 5.04% in one day, jumping from $79 directly back to $83.45. On August 8, it continued to rise, with WTI closing at $78.18 and Brent at $83.55. Oil prices fell for just three days, then rose back for two days. Your heart that just warmed up must have cooled down again, right? Here's the story— On August 4, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said: "Today or tomorrow, we can reach the Hormuz agreement." The market went crazy. WTI dropped 5.7% in one day to $75.77, Brent dropped 5.3% to $79.36. Inflation worries instantly eased, risk appetite recovered, and the crypto market broadly rose. The good days lasted... less than 48 hours. On August 5, the agreement was not signed. On August 6, Iran's parliamentary committee reviewed a bill restricting U.S. and Israeli ships' passage, and Brent crude rose over $3 again to $82.49. On August 7, Houthi forces attacked Saudi Arabia, and oil prices continued to surge. The market spent three days fully pricing in the optimistic expectation of "agreement imminent." Then it realized—where's the agreement? What's the current situation? Good news: Iranian officials say the overall framework of the agreement is clear. Iran and Oman have reached consensus on the geographic coordinates of the shipping route. The U.S. says once the agreement is announced, the blockade on Iranian ports will be lifted. Bad news: Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said—"Iran has made no concessions in the negotiations." No concessions. So tell me, how can the agreement be signed? Iran's proposal states: prohibit ships from hostile countries from passing through the strait, with fines up to 20% of the cargo value for violations. The U.S. demands free, toll-free passage. One wants to close, the other wants to open. Is this called "close to reaching an agreement"? What's worse— even if the agreement is signed, it might not be enforceable. Shipping industry insiders have warned: existing U.S. sanctions and insurance clauses may make this agreement impossible to implement. Simply put: even if Iran says "let them pass," insurance companies might say "no." Ships won't dare to sail, and the agreement is worthless. Between "resuming navigation" and "merchant ships daring to sail," there's still an industry's fear gap. So what does this mean for your BTC? Short term first—unstable oil prices mean unstable BTC. The week of August 3, BTC fell from $63,600 to $62,800. During the two days of big oil price drops, BTC barely rose. Why? Because the market has learned— It no longer pays for "expectations." It wants to see "implementation." No signed agreement, oil prices can rebound anytime. When oil prices rebound, inflation expectations return. When inflation expectations return, the Fed won't dare to ease. No Fed easing means no chance for risk assets. This transmission chain is frighteningly short. So what's my allocation strategy? First, don't chase the "agreement expectation" rally. The August 4 wave was news-driven. Without implementation, the rally recedes. If you chase in, you're the bag holder. Second, watch two things—agreement signing and actual merchant ship passage. Signing the agreement is just the first step. Whether merchant ships dare to sail and insurance dares to cover is the real "risk removal signal." Before that, oil prices may reprice risk premiums anytime. Third, if oil prices really stabilize in the $75-80 range, I'll reconsider being bullish on BTC. The logic is simple: stable oil prices → cooling inflation expectations → easing Fed rate hike pressure → improved liquidity expectations → risk asset valuation recovery. But this "if" hasn't happened yet. This round, the market has been played three times by "agreement about to be reached." Once on August 4, once on August 5, and once again on August 7. Each time saying "soon," each time no signature. Are you still waiting for the "big oil price drop benefits BTC" script? The script isn't wrong, but the director hasn't called Action yet. $BTC $BZ $CL #霍尔木兹谈判取得进展，油价风险降温了吗？