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翻完这轮Big Tech财报发现一个很有意思的事——市场开始给各家AI开支打分了,而且分数差距大得离谱。
微软和亚马逊拿了高分。两家云业务增速都超预期,AI相关收入已经体现在财报里了。Andy Jassy在电话会上把AI开支的账算得很清楚,华尔街买账。微软、亚马逊、Alphabet和Oracle四家三天涨了1.9万亿美元市值。
Meta和Alphabet是另一边的故事。Meta连跌11天,扎克伯格个人身家蒸发了178亿美元。Meta的AI方向其实没问题——他们刚发布的Muse Code编程Agent和云业务都还不错——问题在于投入产出比还没被验证,市场没耐心了。
最关键的一个指标是云业务收入增速。ADWEEK有个说法很到位——云业务就是给7250亿美元AI账单续命的现金引擎。谁能用云收入证明AI已经在赚钱,谁就拿到继续烧的许可。谁还在画饼,市场直接用脚投票。
接下来看Meta能不能在下季度把AI变现的故事讲清楚。云业务那次消息让股价反弹了9%,说明市场愿意给机会——但条件是看到真金白银。
以上不构成投资建议,个股判断请基于自己的研究。
Reviewing the AMD earnings call transcript, I found Lisa Su was asked an unavoidable question—Elon Musk just spent tens of billions buying NVIDIA GPUs to build the world's largest training cluster, so why not choose AMD?
Her answer was very restrained: AMD's market share on the inference side is growing rapidly, and customer choice depends on the specific workload.
To translate: the top-tier large orders for training clusters currently still belong to NVIDIA.
But AMD's earnings data is not bad. Q2 revenue was $11.5 billion, up 50% year-over-year. The data center business doubled outright. Looking at these numbers alone, it doesn't seem like a company whose stock dropped nearly 10% that day.
The problem lies in the AI revenue guidance. The market doesn't want "fast growth," it wants "growth fast enough to challenge NVIDIA." AMD delivered growth but not disruption.
This gap reflects a solidifying pattern: the AI chip market is splitting into two tiers. The first tier is ultra-large-scale training clusters with tens of thousands of cards—NVIDIA currently has no rivals here. The biggest buyers like Musk, OpenAI, and Anthropic default to NVIDIA. The second tier is inference deployment and enterprise AI—AMD is rapidly gaining share here, with MI300 series shipments ramping up.
Lisa Su revealed a key piece of information on the call: AMD's AI customer count has tripled year-over-year. This shows it's not that no one is buying, but that the scale of buyers hasn't reached Musk's level yet.
Next to watch is whether AMD's AI revenue in Q3 can step up again quarter-over-quarter. If it can, the current pullback is a good observation window. If growth slows, the market's valuation framework for the "AI number two" may be compressed further.
The above does not constitute investment advice; chip stocks are volatile, so please base your judgments on your own research.
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