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Gold surged 7% in a week, while BTC remains dead at 64,000: The same macro script played out two different dramas You open your market software and check three times— Gold: $4339, up 7.27% this week. Bitcoin: $64,908, even dipped intraday on August 7. Same market, same nonfarm data, same macro script of “weak employment → easing rate hikes → positive for non-interest assets.” Gold played a bull market, BTC played a sideways drama. It’s like two people entering the same exam room, receiving the same test paper. One scored 100, the other handed in a blank. Holding BTC, can you not be anxious? First, look at how absurd the data is. On August 5, US ADP employment data was released—only 44,000 private jobs added in July. Expectation was 75,000, June was 95,000. Halved. The job market cooled. The market immediately reacted: rate hike expectations cooled, dollar fell, US Treasury yields fell. Gold went crazy. On August 5 alone, it rose over 3%, spot gold broke $4200. On August 6, it continued to surge, surpassing $4300. On August 7, it hit $4339. In three days, from 4077 to 4339, a cumulative increase of over 7%. The logic is clear, the script is straightforward. What about BTC? 64,000. Not moving an inch. ETF is buying—$243 million net inflow on August 6, $582 million cumulative on August 7. Price doesn’t move. Good news without a price rise is more anxiety-inducing than a drop. Why? Three breakpoints pin BTC at 64,000. Breakpoint one: Coinbase premium has been negative for 80 consecutive days. From May 19 until now, Coinbase Bitcoin premium index has been in negative premium territory for 80 straight days, the longest negative streak since the indicator was launched. What does it mean? US institutions are selling, Asia is buying. One is dumping, the other catching. Net result = no result. Breakpoint two: ETF buying came in but didn’t push the price up. $170 million net inflow on August 3, $243 million on August 6. Money came in, price didn’t move. Because ETF marginal buyers aren’t true “all-in bulls”—they are arbitrageurs, short-term traders, people who jump in to eat the premium and run. BlackRock’s IBIT alone accounts for over 60%. Institutions are buying, but buying arbitrage, not belief. Breakpoint three: Fed internal division. Three want rate hikes, three want to wait. Rate cut expectations vs. rate hike risks cancel each other out. Mussallem says the possibility of inflation staying above target is increasing, leaning toward rate hikes. Kashkari says now is the time to start slow rate hikes. Williams says if inflation doesn’t fall, rate hikes are entirely appropriate. The market is tugged between two directions, BTC is ground down between two expectations. More painfully—the narrative of “digital gold” is being voted on by the market with its feet. The 30-day correlation between gold and Bitcoin has dropped to between -0.31 and -0.46. Correlation turned negative and continues to decline—they are no longer the same asset class. When the Iran conflict broke out in February this year, this divergence was extremely verified: gold surged 5.2% in the first 48 hours, Bitcoin plunged 12%, falling with Nasdaq. Real gold keeps rising amid geopolitical risks, “digital gold” stalls at key resistance. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio publicly said: Bitcoin only accounts for 1% of his portfolio, he prefers gold. “Bitcoin is a currency that cannot be printed, but gold has a longer history and no single party responsibility.” BTC/gold ratio fell from above 40 in 2025 to the current 15.7. In one year, Bitcoin’s value relative to gold has shrunk by 60%. 05. But the story isn’t over yet. The wind has started blowing—rate cut expectations, dollar weakness, risk-off sentiment, all present. But BTC’s sail hasn’t unfurled yet. 65,000 is the signal to “set sail.” A volume breakout above 65,000 means the macro logic has finally transmitted to the crypto market. If it can’t break through, it will continue grinding in the “good news priced in” script. Gold is telling the story of “fiat credit loss,” BTC is still telling the story of “liquidity expectations.” When do you think the wind will blow into the crypto market? $BTC $XAU $XAUT #黄金升破4300美元，资金在押降息还是避险？