The probability of a rate hike dropped from 67% to 44%, and BTC only rose 0.7%—what is the market telling you?
The moment the nonfarm payroll data was released, the entire market went crazy.
-23,000 jobs.
The expectation was +83,000. A difference of over 100,000. The employment data for May and June was also revised down by a total of 103,000.
Traders were collectively stunned; the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 55% to 44%. A week ago, this number was still 67%.
The logic chain is very smooth: employment collapsed → the Fed dares not raise rates → liquidity will loosen → BTC will soar.
And then?
BTC only rose 0.7% in one hour, touched $65,300, and then reversed.
You read that right.
Policy expectations shifted from "definitely raising rates" to "possibly not raising rates"—such a big turn, yet only a 0.7% gain.
Gold surged $40 to $4,350. U.S. stocks rose.
BTC wandered around $64,000 like a dead fish.
Why?
Because the market had already run ahead.
Before the data release, BTC had already rebounded from a low of $62,500 to above $64,000. The good news had already been fully priced in.
More importantly—BTC’s wounds haven’t healed yet.
Cold wallets were hacked for $110 million, Strategy sold 1,638 BTC at a loss last week to cash out $105 million. The Coinbase premium for U.S. institutions has been negative for nearly 80 consecutive days—Americans are selling.
Internal bearish factors and hedging external bullish factors just offset each other.
QCP Capital put it very precisely: "The market shows resilience, but the upward momentum is limited."
In plain language—that you’re tough if it doesn’t fall, but if you want it to rise? No way.
The options market is more honest.
Put options expiring at the end of August are about 50% more expensive than call options.
Institutions are telling you with real money: they fear a drop, not a rise.
These people have more information, more money, and stricter risk controls than you. They’re all buying insurance—do you think you understand the market better than them?
Nonfarm payrolls are the appetizer; CPI is the main course.
Employment data can drop the rate hike probability from 67% to 44%—but CPI can push it back from 44% to 67%.
CPI will be released next week on August 12. If inflation exceeds expectations, all the "no rate hike" narratives today will be invalid within a week. If inflation cools down, that will be the real good news realized.
Don’t fill your stomach before the main course is served.
My operational framework, in plain language:
First, don’t chase above $65,000.
Half of the good news has already been digested. If you chase in at $65,000, you’re betting that CPI will continue to cool down—but what if CPI rebounds?
Second, leave room in your position.
Don’t go all in just because of one nonfarm payroll candle. Anything can happen before CPI lands.
Third, watch two time points:
August 12 CPI—decides whether the rate hike probability continues to fall or rebounds.
August 28 Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting—Fed Chair Powell’s speech will set the tone for the second half of the year’s policy direction.
Market sentiment changes faster than flipping a page.
A week ago, oil prices broke $100, everyone shouted for a rate hike. A week later, nonfarm payrolls surprised to the downside, everyone shouted for a rate cut.
But BTC only rose from $62,500 to $65,000—a 3.5% fluctuation, showing bulls are not strong at all.
Don’t be led by narratives.
Cash is dignity, patience is a weapon.
Wait for CPI to land, wait for direction to be clear, then act.
For now, sit tight.
$BTC$ETH$SOL#非农意外转负，CPI成加息关键
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