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Everyone was waiting for SpaceX to crash, but it rose instead — the harshest lesson in the market On August 5, after SpaceX's earnings report, it plunged 13.6%, closing at $108.27, a new closing low since its IPO. Everyone was saying: "9.115 billion shares will be unlocked tomorrow, $100 billion will hit the market, it has to fall." Short sellers had already taken positions up to 36% of the float. They had made over $9 billion from the previous plunge. Everyone thought it was certain. So what happened? On August 6, the unlock day, SpaceX rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. The daily volume was 255 million shares, a new high since listing. A bunch of people were crying in the bathroom. Why? Because Wednesday's plunge was the "unlock" itself. The market had already priced in the negative impact of the unlock one day after the earnings report — a 13.6% single-day drop and 200 million shares traded had flushed out those wanting to run. By the actual unlock day, the tradable shares doubled from 639 million to 1.55 billion, but the selling pressure had already been consumed in advance. The new selling was swallowed up by bargain hunters and short-covering. You thought the negative impact hadn't come yet, but it had already ended. This is the harshest part of the market — it doesn't follow your script. To be honest, I have been caught by this before. In 2021, I heavily invested in a growth stock. The earnings report showed revenue beating expectations by 20%, profit by 30%. I thought it was solid. The next day at open, it dropped 12%. I was stunned. Later I realized the market had priced in the "beat" in advance; what really mattered was the next quarter's guidance — which was below expectations. Since then I understood: The market never prices "what has already happened," it prices "what is about to happen." You think you're looking at the earnings report, but you're actually looking at the market's expectations for the earnings report. Revenue beats expectations? Stock falls. Because the beat wasn't big enough. Unlock negative? Stock rises. Because the negative was already fully priced in. You're driving looking in the rearview mirror, the market is looking 300 meters ahead. So how does SpaceX look now? Morgan Stanley says target price $300 by mid-next year. JPMorgan says $240. Bank of America says $235. But some institutions are cutting target prices. There is a big divergence. But one thing is certain — SpaceX's Q2 revenue was $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year. Net loss narrowed from $1 billion to $541 million. Starlink revenue was $4.291 billion, with 12 million users. AI business revenue was $2.561 billion, up 247% year-over-year. Fundamentals are improving. But capital expenditure was $18.37 billion, up 550%, with $15.8 billion invested in AI. This is a "burn money to grow" story. Whether the market believes it depends on whether you believe Musk can turn that $15.8 billion burn into a comeback. Finally, some honest words — Don't just follow the "consensus." When everyone is bearish, that's often the worst time to be bearish. When everyone thinks the unlock will cause a crash, the unlock actually becomes the bottom. The biggest certainty in the market is that it is always uncertain. This round of SpaceX's rebound shows there is indeed strong buying around $105-110. But there are still multiple unlock phases ahead — second batch on August 20, third batch in September, continuing until December. The real test is not over yet. But one thing is already certain — In this market, consensus is often wrong. When everyone is saying the same thing, you better think: Are they really right? $SPCX $TSLA #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？