Tonight is Nonfarm Payrolls night, will history repeat itself?
First, let's look at two sets of data——
ADP Private Employment: Only increased by 44,000 in July, expected 75,000, the lowest in six months.
Initial Jobless Claims: 199,000 for the week ending August 1, below 200,000 for the third consecutive week.
One says "employment is cooling," the other says "employment is very stable."
The two sets of data are conflicting.
Plus, Federal Reserve Governor Cook hawkishly said a few days ago: "Inflation risk is higher than employment risk, ready to take action." Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari also said "It's time to start raising rates gradually."
CME data shows the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in September is already 55%.
Employment is cooling, but inflation is not falling. Who will the Fed listen to?
Tonight's Nonfarm Payrolls will be the answer.
History is the best teacher.
June Nonfarm: Added 57,000, far below expectations.
How did BTC move then?
As soon as the data came out, it jumped 4%, surging above 64,000.
But then? The rally faded within weeks. Those who chased in are still stuck at the peak.
Tonight the market expects an increase of 83,000.
Higher than June, but lower than "normal."
FactSet's median expectation is 97,500. Goldman Sachs expects 80,000, Vanguard is extremely bearish—only 18,000.
The bigger the expectation gap, the greater the volatility.
There are basically three scenarios tonight:
🟢 Scenario 1: Nonfarm far below expectations (<50,000)
Rate cut expectations heat up, BTC may replicate June's move—jump, challenge 65,000-66,000.
But remember: last time the rally didn't last. This time might be the same.
Don't be fooled by a single bullish candle into holding at the peak.
🟡 Scenario 2: Nonfarm meets expectations (50,000-100,000)
Data continues to conflict, market remains confused.
BTC will likely oscillate between 63,000-65,000.
Both bulls and bears suffer, holders endure the most.
🔴 Scenario 3: Nonfarm exceeds expectations (>100,000)
Rate hike expectations further solidify, BTC may directly fall below 63,000, even test 62,000 support.
If CPI two weeks later remains high, a September rate hike is a done deal.
Here are some practical trading suggestions:
First, don't heavily bet on direction before the data release.
In a casino, betting big or small is still 50/50. Tonight all three directions are possible—don't gamble your real money recklessly.
Second, watch the 65,000 level.
A volume breakout → follow short-term longs, stop loss below 64,000.
If it can't break through → keep watching, don't get itchy-handed.
Third, watch the 62,000-63,000 support below.
If broken, it's time to run. If not, hold on.
Fourth, don't forget the CPI two weeks later.
Nonfarm decides tonight's direction, CPI decides September's rate hike.
When June Nonfarm crushed the bears, how many thought the bull was back?
What happened? BTC hovered between 64,000-65,000 for over a month.
Tonight will be the same.
Nonfarm can tell you "which way to go," but the steering wheel is in your hands.
Don't floor the gas before the data comes out.
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