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Xinhua's report on the Strait of Hormuz contains quite a lot of information 1. It confirms that the new management agreement for the strait is close to being reached. Iran has implicitly accepted that commercial navigation will resume in the future, and Oman's role has shifted from regional mediator to shipping agent (aligned with the US), raising expectations for navigation through the strait. 2. The closure of the two old shipping lanes does not mean a complete closure of the strait, but rather a breaking of the rules and the establishment of new lanes (as shown in Figure 2). 3. The core change in the lanes is a shift in control, which overturns the previous 60 years of lane rules. Previously, commercial ships entering the lanes actually used the international lane on Oman's side. Iran opposed this, arguing it did not reflect Iran's sovereignty over the northern shore lanes. Therefore, the new lanes partially pass through Iranian territorial waters. This means Iran's shipping management rights, toll collection rights, and law enforcement rights are potentially all enhanced. Simply put, the new lanes give Iran something it never had before. 4. It emphasizes a 2-4 month validity period for the lanes, which is the most important point. I believe this implies two things: a. The lane plan is not mature and will need to be adjusted over time to gradually form a more complete and mature set of lane rules. b. Iran's optimistic buffer with the US is around the midterm elections, i.e., 2-4 months. Once Trump completes the midterms, regardless of the outcome, he will likely turn his attention back to Iran. 5. The last sentence is crucial. Previously, Iran never admitted to restarting negotiations under US pressure, but the current statements clearly lay the groundwork for a return to the negotiating table. Follow-up focus: The next key points to watch are, first, when the strait rules will be officially announced, and second, when the US and Iran will officially confirm the restart of negotiations, including the timing and location. Regarding crude oil prices, the downward trend is expected to continue. For US oil, watch the support around 75. Once the strait rules are confirmed and US-Iran negotiations restart, if prices remain stable above 70, I will exit my short positions. Conversely, if prices quickly fall below 70, I am optimistic about a drop to 65 or even lower! #伊朗阿曼临时通航协议近落地