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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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营收暴增372%、豪掷140亿回购,闪迪股价反而崩了8%——市场到底在怕什么? 美东时间周三盘后,闪迪的财报电话会开得像一场葬礼。 营收89.7亿美元,同比增长372%。调整后每股收益39.25美元,一年前是0.29美元——涨了135倍。毛利率84.6%,一年前26.2%。 董事会还批了140亿美元的新回购计划,总回购授权冲到155亿美元。 然后呢? 盘后一度跌了8%。 常规交易时段已经跌了5.4%,盘后又补一刀。一天之内,十几亿美元市值没了。 你身边有没有这种人——看着财报数据兴奋得睡不着,打开账户一看,整个人傻了? 问题出在哪? 指引。 闪迪给下一季度营收指引103亿到108亿美元,中值105.5亿。华尔街要的是108亿。 差了2.5个亿。 就这2.5亿,市场判了死刑。 高盛分析师James Schneider在盘后重申买入评级,目标价2200美元。华尔街30位分析师里,25个建议买入,平均目标价2433美元。 但没用。股价该跌还是跌。 更扎心的是——闪迪自己也知道问题在哪。 财报里写得清清楚楚:第四季度营收增长,三分之一来自销量增加,三分之二来自涨价。 翻译成人话:业绩好,不是因为卖得多了,是因为卖得贵了。 数据中心业务一年前只占公司出货量的12%,现在干到了38%。AI客户抢着要货,闪迪2026年的产能早就卖光了。 但市场现在问的是另一个问题:涨价能涨到什么时候? 闪迪的答案是:下一季度毛利率指引83%–85%,基本持平,有见顶迹象。 更狠的是长期视角。 闪迪签了8份NBM长期协议,保底收入939亿美元。2027年超过一半供应被锁定,2028年三分之二。 听起来很稳对吧? 但换个角度想:长期协议锁定的,是价格天花板。 闪迪预计2026年全球NAND市场规模超3000亿美元,2027年接近5000亿美元。蛋糕在变大,但闪迪的份额呢?Counterpoint数据显示,2026年一季度闪迪全球NAND市场份额只有13%。 蛋糕再大,切蛋糕的刀也多了。 三星、SK海力士、美光、长鑫——四家都在扩产。长鑫刚在A股上市,市值3.31万亿。SK海力士7月刚在纳斯达克上市,募了265亿美元。 资本市场上,每一分钱都在押注同一个故事:AI存储。 问题是——当所有人都在押注同一个故事的时候,这个故事还能讲多久? 最后说句实在话。 闪迪的财报本身没有问题,有问题的是市场的预期。 股价今年涨了470%。30位分析师25个建议买入。市场已经把“AI存储需求持续增长”这个剧本,演绎到了极致。 任何一个“不够完美”的信号,都会被放大成“周期见顶”的证据。 闪迪CEO在电话会上说了一句话:“过去我们只能预判三个月以内需求,如今手握四年以上锁定采购量。” 但市场连一个季度的指引不及预期都忍不了。 这不是闪迪的问题。 这是整个AI赛道的问题——预期跑得比现实快太多。 营收涨372%不够,EPS涨135倍不够,140亿回购不够。 市场要的是:永远涨下去。 $BTC $SNDK $XSNDK #闪迪财报双超预期,新增140亿美元回购授权
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Revenue surged 372%, then plunged 8% after hours — Wall Street finally says “enough” to AI storage Looking at SanDisk's earnings report — revenue of $8.97 billion, a year-over-year surge of 372%, beating market expectations by a full 4.3%. Adjusted EPS of $39.25, 135 times that of the same period last year. Gross margin at 84.6%, 3 percentage points higher than expected. The company also announced a $14 billion buyback plan, with total remaining buyback authorization reaching $15.5 billion. Waking up, SanDisk plunged 8% after hours, having already dropped 5.4% during regular trading — losing the value of a mid-sized tech company in one day. Everyone was stunned. On August 5, the pricing logic for AI storage completely changed overnight. Previously, the market looked at what? Revenue, profit, gross margin. SanDisk's data center business surged 1298%, edge computing up 392% — all positive. But now, Wall Street's gaze has shifted. They are focused on one thing: next quarter's guidance. SanDisk expects next quarter revenue between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion, midpoint $10.55 billion — 5.5% below analysts' expectation of $11.16 billion. EPS guidance is $44 to $46, market expectation $45.58. Gross margin guidance 83% to 85%, roughly flat quarter-over-quarter — showing signs of peaking. "Strong results backfire" — the stronger you were in the past, the higher the market's expectations for your future. This is Wall Street's new script as of August 5, 2026. To be blunt: the market no longer pays for the "past," it only buys the "future." SanDisk's full fiscal year 2026 revenue was $20.25 billion, up 175% year-over-year. GAAP net profit was $11.43 billion, compared to a loss of $1.64 billion last year. From losing money to earning $11.4 billion in just one year. Impressive, right? Not enough. Goldman Sachs bluntly said: "Market expectations already imply the assumption of 'perfect execution + continuous outperformance,' any guidance returning to normal will be interpreted as a negative signal." What does that mean? You scored 99 points, but the market expects 100 — so you fail. Even harsher, SanDisk is not an isolated case. Western Digital reported earnings the same day and plunged over 11% after hours. The two storage giants lost hundreds of billions in market value in one day. Roundhill Financial's CEO put it more plainly: "The storage industry's fundamentals are at their best in the past decade, but the market has already priced this in. If earnings and guidance don't significantly exceed expectations, it may be hard to satisfy the market." In plain terms: you’re driving at 200 mph, now even flooring the gas can only maintain 200 mph — but the passengers in the back are shouting for 250 mph. But there’s a detail many overlook. SanDisk holds 8 NBM long-term agreements guaranteeing $93.9 billion in minimum revenue. Over half of 2027 fiscal year capacity and two-thirds of 2028 fiscal year capacity are already locked in. This is the first time in the NAND industry that a company can see demand visibility over four years ahead. Moreover — Elon Musk personally reassured: AI storage demand growth is ten times supply. So the issue isn’t "whether AI storage has demand." The issue is: the market has already priced the "demand exists" fact into the stratosphere. Stop comforting yourself with "earnings beat expectations." This earnings season, the market only recognizes one thing: can you continue to beat expectations next quarter? SanDisk has already dropped 47% in July, wiping out over $150 billion in market value. Last night it dropped another 8%. Those who rushed in seeing "372% surge" have probably finished crying by now. But one thing is certain — The AI storage sector has moved from the stage of "who benefits" to "who can sustain benefits." The former looks at the past, the latter looks to the future. And Wall Street only ever trades the future. $BTC $SNDK $SPCX #闪迪财报双超预期,新增140亿美元回购授权

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