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US July ADP private sector employment data released — only 44,000 new jobs added. What does 44,000 mean? In June, this number was 95,000. The market expectation was 75,000. In just one month, it was directly halved from 95,000 to 44,000. This is the lowest level since January this year. The service sector added 47,000 jobs, while the goods-producing sector directly lost 3,000. Trade, transportation, and utilities jobs decreased by 8,000, whereas in June this number increased by 15,000. This is not a "slowdown." This is a "stall." After the data was released, the market reacted immediately — The US dollar index fell below 100, and the 10-year US Treasury yield plunged from 4.67% to 4.61%. The CME September rate hike probability dropped from nearly 70% before the data release to 54.9%. Gold surged $188 in a single day, up 4.48%. Bitcoin broke through $65,000, up 1.5% in 24 hours. The market voted "no rate hike" at the first moment. But — The celebration did not come. Bitcoin hovered around 65,000 but did not break through. Gold rose $188, but institutions said "this was CTA shorts getting squeezed, not genuine buying." Why? Because on the same day, Federal Reserve officials collectively "poured cold water." Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said: "The time to raise rates has come, and I hope it will be implemented in September." Fed Governor Cook said: If inflation does not improve, we are ready to support rate hikes. New York Fed President Williams said: If inflation does not fall as expected, rate hikes are entirely appropriate. Employment data says "don’t raise rates," officials say "must raise." The market is caught in the middle, stuck between a rock and a hard place. Brothers, does this scene look familiar? Cooling employment is the "gas pedal loosening" — but inflation is the "brake pads." As long as CPI doesn’t come down, the Fed won’t dare to ease off. ADP gave the market hope for "no rate hike," but officials took that hope back. Data shows that wage growth for job switchers has soared to 7%, the largest increase since August 2025. Wage growth for stayers remains at 4.4%, not decreasing at all. Wages are still rising, how can inflation come down? So the current situation is — ADP data is very poor, the market briefly celebrated, then quickly calmed down. Because everyone knows: ADP is just the appetizer. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls are the main course. The market expects about 80,000 new jobs in July nonfarm, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. If nonfarm is also "halved" like ADP, the September rate hike probability could drop below 45%. But if nonfarm is stronger than expected — then ADP’s "stall" will be reinterpreted by the market. Then comes next Wednesday’s CPI. Employment + inflation, two cards played together. Whether the Fed raises rates in September depends on these two numbers. ADP made the market excited for five minutes. But the real judgment day is Friday and next Wednesday. $BTC $ETH $SOL #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧