After a market cap evaporation of 1.2 trillion, SpaceX's first financial report is coming
There is a company that surged to $225 on its IPO day in June, with a market cap surpassing 3 trillion dollars, crushing Amazon and Microsoft.
Six weeks later, it dropped to $108.37. 20% below the IPO price and halved from its peak.
Market cap evaporated by over 1.2 trillion dollars.
This company is called SpaceX.
And its darkest hour has yet to come.
After Tuesday's market close, SpaceX will release its first quarterly report since going public.
This is not an ordinary financial report.
The market expects Q2 revenue around $6.9 billion, EBIT about -$1.55 billion.
AI business revenue is expected to soar from $818 million in Q1 to $2.18 billion.
Starlink contributes about $3.3 billion, accounting for 70% of total revenue.
Looks okay? Don't rush.
The real bombshell is on Thursday.
On August 6, 911.5 million shares will be eligible for unlocking.
At the current stock price, worth over $100 billion.
Currently, SpaceX has only about 640 million publicly tradable shares.
Overnight, tradable shares will double.
And this is just the first batch. By January 2027, nearly 4 billion shares will be unlocked gradually.
This is not unlocking, this is a floodgate opening.
Even more exciting — short sellers have already set their traps.
As of July 29, SpaceX short positions reached 219.3 million shares, accounting for 34% of the float.
Nominal value $24.6 billion. Surpassing Tesla, becoming one of the most heavily shorted large companies in the US.
When data was first disclosed on June 16, short positions were only 23.3 million shares.
In just over a month, it surged nearly tenfold.
Moreover, shorts have already gained $7.3 billion in unrealized profits and are adding positions against the trend.
What about Wall Street?
Among about 30 institutions, 27 gave a “buy” rating.
Average target price around $236-$239, implying upside over 110%.
Morgan Stanley maintains “overweight” with a $300 target price.
On one side, 27 institutions shout “buy,” on the other, shorts bet $24.6 billion against it.
Both sides are putting real money on the line to prove they are right.
This kind of “sell-side unanimous optimism, shorts unanimously increasing” combo is rare.
So can the financial report save the stock price?
First, look at Starlink — the only profitable business. 10.3 million users at the end of Q1, covering 164 countries and regions. Expected to increase to 12 million in Q2. Revenue of 11.4 billion in 2025, operating profit 4.4 billion.
Then AI — Q1 revenue $818 million, but operating loss $2.5 billion, capital expenditure $7.7 billion. Although Q2 revenue may soar to $2.18 billion, the burn rate will only accelerate.
Then aerospace — Q1 revenue $4.1 billion, operating loss $657 million.
Starlink is making money, AI and aerospace are burning cash. And burning much more than earning.
Full-year loss of $4.9 billion in 2025, Q1 2026 loss of $4.28 billion.
SpaceX is not a profitable company. It is a company propped up by "Elon Musk's storytelling" with a 1.4 trillion market cap.
Where will the money come from to absorb this $100 billion unlocking selling pressure?
Institutions have only two ways to take on this $100 billion:
First, sell other tech stocks. Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft — reduce holdings.
Second, reduce BTC/ETH spot ETF positions. Free up cash.
Regardless of the financial report's quality, the crypto market may be the one getting drained.
BTC is now fluctuating around $62,000-$63,000.
Don't ask why it can't rise.
The answer is money is being drained.
Two key time points:
After market close on August 4 — financial report. Decides if it's worth absorbing.
August 6 — unlocking. Actual selling pressure lands.
These two time points mark the most painful liquidity vacuum period for the crypto market.
$BTC$AMD$SPCX#财报观察员：AMD与SpaceX交卷在即，Circle压轴
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