On July 29, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, at 3.50%-3.75%.
However, among the 12 voting members, 3 voted against — Logan, Harker, and Kashkari, all demanding an immediate 25 basis point rate hike.
This is the first time since 2016 that the Fed has seen three dissenting votes aligned in the same direction at one meeting.
After the news, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, the Nasdaq fell 1.7%, and the Dow Jones declined 2.19%.
Bitcoin instantly dropped about 1%, hitting a low of $63,890.
Social circles were flooded with messages like "The hawks are coming," "Rate hike is certain in September," and "Run quickly."
But I added to my position.
Why? Because 99% of people only saw the 3 dissenting votes and missed three key details from Waller's press conference.
Detail one: Waller sent a clear dovish signal during the press conference.
He downplayed inflationary pressure from AI, saying price increases in AI-related products are localized phenomena, not a broad-based inflation surge.
He attributed the recent rise in market interest rates to a strong economy.
The most critical statement — the rise in market interest rates is already substituting for rate hikes. The financial markets have already done part of the Fed's tightening work.
What does this mean? Waller is saying: "The bond market has already hiked rates for me; I don't necessarily have to move the benchmark rate."
If this isn't dovish, what is?
Detail two: The probability of a rate hike in September has decreased rather than increased.
Before the meeting, the market priced the probability of a September hike at over 80%.
After the press conference, it dropped directly to nearly 60%.
By August 4, CME data showed the probability at about 67%, but the marginal trend was downward.
The market's first reaction is always emotional. The second reaction is directional. The direction is dovish.
Are you panicking and cutting losses in the first reaction, or seeing opportunity in the second?
Detail three: The US dollar index plunged.
From July 28 to 30, the US dollar index fell for three consecutive days, dropping over 1.5% cumulatively and breaking below the 100-point mark.
A falling dollar releases pressure on risk assets.
Bitcoin holding above $63,000 indicates underlying demand remains solid.
The three dissenting votes scared off retail investors. The dollar's plunge signals to smart money: pressure is easing.
My strategy is simple:
Don't chase highs. Place staggered orders during every panic-driven drop triggered by macro data.
Below $63,000, place an order for every $1,000 drop.
While others panic, I focus on the details.
What to watch next?
August 27 to 29, Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Waller will deliver the keynote speech on August 28.
Morgan Stanley put it bluntly: if July and August CPI consecutively exceed expectations, Waller may shift to more aggressive hikes in September — this is the biggest current interest rate risk.
Stop-loss orders must be set properly. Macro traders' excess returns come from seeing details when others panic.
$BTC$ETH$SOL#从降息到加息，联储分歧全公开
Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more
