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#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 This is definitely the most divided interest rate decision in nearly two years. A month ago, everyone was still counting on how many rate cuts would happen this year, but now the probability of a rate hike in July has surged to over 30%, and the September hike is almost fully priced in. The expectation reversal is unbelievably fast. I believe the July meeting will most likely hold rates steady, but the post-meeting statement will be more hawkish than most expect. The real rate hike window is in September; this time is just a preemptive warning. Rate cuts are basically off the table this year, and the high interest rate environment will last far longer than the market expects. Growth assets like tech stocks and crypto will continue to face pressure in the short term, so don’t stubbornly hold on to the easing logic from the beginning of the year. Looking at the data: CME’s latest pricing shows a 63.5% probability of holding rates at 3.50%-3.75% in July, and a 36.5% chance of a 25bp hike — this is the biggest divergence in nearly two years, meaning one in three people is betting on a direct move this time. More importantly, the probability of at least one hike in September has surged to 79.6%, and some traders are even pricing in a cumulative 50bp hike by year-end, pushing rates to 4.0%-4.25%. Brent crude has surged past $100, ramping up inflation rebound risks; initial jobless claims hit a new low for April, showing labor market resilience far beyond expectations. These two key Fed indicators are strengthening simultaneously, leaving no reason for rate cuts and instead providing strong backing for hikes. Additionally, the new Fed chair, Waller, has scrapped forward guidance, refusing to tip off the market in advance. Castle Securities is betting on a surprise rate hike this time to rebuild anti-inflation credibility. Holding steady in July is the baseline scenario, but hawkish statements are inevitable, and the September rate hike window is basically open. Therefore, controlling position sizes and keeping enough cash to handle volatility is the safest approach.