Bitcoin basically traded sideways around $63,000 this week, dropping 2% over the week, stuck in a narrow range between $62,000 and $63,500. Looking back is even more painful; it has dropped 44% over the past 12 months. Last August, it even touched a high of $120,094, and the current price has more than halved since then.
The price is being suppressed by rising US Treasury yields combined with net outflows from ETFs, with institutional buying shrinking. More notably, Strategy, that is, Saylor's company, has not added to its position for five consecutive weeks. Their average entry cost is around $75,500, and the current price has clearly fallen below this line, indicating that even the most steadfast institutional buyers are now holding back. On-chain data shows that long-term holders haven't loosened their positions much, suggesting a bottoming rather than a sell-off, but this does not equal a reversal signal.
My judgment is that the $62,000 support is more critical than the $63,500 resistance. Breaking below it will likely open the door for further downside. Without a catalyst, sideways consolidation remains the path of least resistance.
$BTC
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