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🧵 Escalation of US-Iran conflict, my 7 judgments First, a note. Last night, Bitcoin plunged directly from around 65000 through 63000, hitting a low of 62200. The market was stunned by Trump's tough rhetoric against Iran. Then? Today BTC bounced back to around 63500. Bulls and bears took turns getting hit, volatility maxed out. But I want to tell you—the real storm hasn't arrived yet. 1️⃣ Evacuation alerts are not warnings, they are action signals The US Embassy in Jerusalem issued a security alert on August 1, advising citizens to consider leaving. The US State Department is reminding citizens in the Middle East to prepare for evacuation. This is not a suggestion, it's a signal. In the 2019 Persian Gulf crisis and the 2023 Sudan civil war—after evacuations, conflicts escalated substantially. This time? The US and Israel are planning to launch "the most intense" bombing so far on Iran's energy infrastructure, targeting power plants and refineries. Evacuation precedes bombing; this is standard procedure. 2️⃣ Oil price rising 20% is just the beginning International oil prices have risen over 20% cumulatively in July. Brent crude surged 4.6% on Friday to $88.10. After-hours trading continues to push Brent past $90. But this is not the end. Inside the US, discussions are underway to complete the bombing before the financial markets open on August 3 to avoid impacting the global economy. What does this mean? They know the strike will ignite the market, but want to pick the "least damaging" timing. If the strike really happens, Brent at $90? That's just the starting point. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices hitting $100 wouldn't be surprising. 3️⃣ The impact on crypto unfolds in three stages; many only see the first layer Day 1: Panic selling. Any news is interpreted as bearish. Last night’s BTC drop from 65000 to 62000 was a rehearsal. Week 1: Sharp divergence. Safe-haven funds will flow into BTC. Altcoins? Liquidity will be drained. The gap between BTC and altcoins will widen to a mind-boggling degree. Month 1: If the conflict does not escalate into full-scale war, BTC will recover and outperform most assets. But the premise is—you have to survive until then. 4️⃣ The altcoin season logic is interrupted This is not "bad news fully priced in," this is a geopolitical black swan. In this environment, funds have only two destinations: BTC and stablecoins. Altcoins? Forget it. Liquidity will recede like a tide. Those still shouting "alt season" now either don’t understand macro or are fooling themselves with heavy positions. 5️⃣ Shorting volatility now = giving away money In geopolitical events, Gamma eats all Theta. In plain terms: the premiums you collect from selling calls and puts can be wiped out by a single market move. Don’t be an options seller. Don’t think "volatility is so high, it must come down." Geopolitics doesn’t care about technicals. 6️⃣ The most important sentence: a crash is an opportunity, but be prepared for a second dip Historically, the first crash after a conflict outbreak is an opportunity. But this time is different. Trump said in an interview with French media: "If we can’t get 100% of what we want from Iran, we will definitely consider resuming full-scale war." 100%. Not a word left for compromise. So prepare for two scenarios: the first crash is a buy opportunity, but keep ammo ready for the second dip. 7️⃣ The last and most important sentence Whoever holds the private keys holds the assets. Conflict escalation may cause CEXs to suspend withdrawals—this is not alarmism, it’s historical experience. Coins held on exchanges may be inaccessible in extreme situations. Not your keys, not your coins. This phrase is truer than ever in the face of geopolitical conflict. $BTC $BZ $CL #美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警