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Kshsb
Kshsb
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怎么判断存储周期什么时候见顶? 我认为,与其猜,不如盯着这四个指标。 第一,看毛利率。 存储行业固定成本很高,一旦价格开始反转,毛利率往往比营收跌得更快,它通常是周期见顶最早发出的信号。 第二,看四大云厂商的 CapEx。 Google、微软、Meta、Amazon 才是真正的需求端。如果哪一天开始明确下调 AI 资本开支,我认为这会是整个存储行业最值得警惕的信号。 第三,看现货价,而不是合约价。 历史上几轮存储周期,都是现货价格先开始松动,合约价格随后才跟上。如果未来出现现货下跌、合约依然坚挺,往往意味着库存已经开始累积。 第四,看新增产能。 特别是长鑫存储(CXMT)等厂商未来 2027-2028 年的扩产进度。如果大量新增产能如期甚至提前释放,供给格局就可能发生变化。 所以我认为,判断存储周期见顶,不需要靠感觉,也不用天天猜价格。盯住毛利率、CapEx、现货价格和新增产能,这四个指标往往比股价更早告诉你答案。 $SNDK $SKHYNIX $MU
Kshsb
Kshsb
Actually, I increasingly feel that when investing in a company, what you really need to study is not the product, but the business model. Because technology can be caught up with, the business model often determines how much money a company can make in the long term. Why do I always believe that most storage companies have obvious cyclical characteristics? The reason is not only that DRAM, HBM, or NAND are affected by supply and demand, but more importantly, most of them adopt the IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) model. From chip design, wafer manufacturing to packaging and testing, almost the entire production process must be completed by themselves. The advantage of this model is that it can control technology and capacity, but the cost is also very high. A wafer fab, an EUV lithography machine, an advanced packaging production line—all are huge investments. Even if the market enters a downturn cycle, fixed expenses such as equipment depreciation, factory maintenance, personnel costs, and continuous capacity expansion still exist and will not decrease because of chip price drops. So when storage prices enter a downward cycle, profits are often quickly compressed, and financial report fluctuations are very obvious. Looking at Nvidia from the opposite perspective. It does not build its own wafer fabs but focuses on chip design and outsources manufacturing to TSMC. Although this fabless model also bears foundry costs, it does not carry hundreds of billions of dollars in manufacturing assets, allowing more funds to be invested in CUDA, NVLink, software ecosystems, and next-generation product R&D. Therefore, I have always believed that a company's true moat is not just technological leadership but whether the business model can continuously generate high returns. Investment is often not about comparing whose technology is the best, but about comparing whose business model is more capable of weathering cycles.

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