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Kshsb
Kshsb
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我认为这张图画得非常好,基本把我对特斯拉未来商业模式的理解都表达出来了。 很多人投资一家公司,总喜欢盯着今天赚了多少钱、卖了多少辆车、这一季利润高不高。 但投资真正看的,从来不是现在,而是未来。 市场愿意给一家公司高估值,不是因为它今天赚钱,而是因为大家相信它未来能赚更多的钱,而且赚钱的方式会越来越好。 特斯拉未来如果只有卖车,那它可能就是一家优秀的汽车公司;但如果 FSD 真的跑通,软件订阅会带来持续的经常性现金流,边际成本越来越低;Robotaxi 开始运营,又会形成新的服务收入;Optimus 规模化之后,又打开了全球劳动力市场。 这时候,汽车反而只是整个 AI 商业生态里的一个入口。 所以我一直在研究的不是特斯拉今天卖了多少辆车,而是未来十年它会靠什么赚钱。因为投资,本质上就是给未来的商业模式定价,而不是给今天的利润定价。 $TSLA
Kshsb
Kshsb
Let me explain in detail. Most people still underestimate Tesla's true future business model. The first layer is FSD. FSD is essentially a software subscription. The biggest difference between software and cars is that selling software to the first user or the millionth user costs almost nothing extra; the marginal cost keeps decreasing while profit margins keep increasing. The second layer is Robotaxi. Every Tesla car sold helps collect real-world driving data; the more data, the faster FSD learns; the more mature FSD becomes, the safer Robotaxi is; the more profitable Robotaxi is, the more people buy Teslas and join the Robotaxi network, generating even more data. This is a self-reinforcing data flywheel. The third layer is the Optimus humanoid robot. When FSD learns how to perceive, make decisions, and avoid obstacles in the real world, this AI capability won’t just stay in cars but can be transferred to robots. Today, companies hire workers and bear costs like wages, social security, and management annually; after the initial purchase of a robot, the remaining costs are mostly electricity, maintenance, and depreciation, plus continuous iterative upgrades. So I believe Tesla’s future sales won’t be about cars or robots. Cars are just data entry points, FSD is a high-margin software subscription, Robotaxi is a platform generating continuous cash flow, and humanoid robots replicate the same AI capabilities across more industries. The real value isn’t in the hardware but in this AI flywheel: once it starts spinning, each additional user and each device sold lowers marginal costs, increases data, and deepens the moat. I think this is where many people underestimate Tesla: it’s not aiming to make one-time hardware sales profits but to build an AI ecosystem that continuously collects software subscription fees, platform commissions, and robot service fees. This is also why many investors are willing to give it a much higher valuation than traditional automakers.

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