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Trump's verbal counterattack arrived as expected. Next, it depends on whether it will be just a verbal warning or an actual strike. Moreover, the military strike could be a limited local strike or a large-scale attack, which will determine the intensity of the US-Iran conflict. The most optimistic scenario is a verbal warning with no strike. The neutral scenario is a limited strike without escalating the war intensity, and no retaliatory attacks between the US and Iran. The worst expectation is a US counterattack followed by Iranian retaliation, disrupting shipping through the Strait. Also, pay attention to two other pieces of news: 1. Yemen's Houthi forces are preparing to charge fees on ships passing through the Red Sea. This has little actual impact on shipping but creates a negative expectation, indicating that the US-Iran geopolitical risk is expanding to surrounding areas. 2. Reuters, citing three anonymous sources, reports that Iran is expected to receive 300-400 sets of Chinese-made portable air defense missile systems in the coming weeks. Both pieces of news are potential negatives for risk markets. Next is to verify these reports, especially the latter two. Once confirmed, they will greatly exacerbate the risk of US-Iran geopolitical loss of control. Geopolitical risk spillover is a bad sign, and hopefully, it will not happen! #停火48小时告吹，美伊边打边谈