The information flow determines what we are exposed to every day and will also affect our way of thinking in the long run, so I prefer to watch less of the hype and reserve my attention for research, action, and continuous output. I usually don't like to follow gossip. Who is fighting with whom, which project is tearing each other apart again—it's okay to glance occasionally, but following it long-term only drains your emotions. After the excitement is over, your position won't improve, nor will your understanding automatically increase. I prefer to focus on people who bring new information or truly interactive friends. This is not because I think I'm smarter than anyone else, but simply because attention is limited. If there's one more noise in the timeline, you might miss truly important information. I increasingly agree with a creator's mindset: instead of spending time judging others, it's better to continuously build your own content and capabilities. When the market is good, everyone can talk about opportunities; when the market cools down, those who are still willing to research, review, and seriously produce output are the ones worth following long-term. I don't want to gain a sense of existence by following gossip, nor maintain relationships through mutual follows. I focus on doing my own thing and continuously producing valuable content. Over time, the content will naturally filter out like-minded people for you.

Why do many people who get the direction right still end up losing money? After trading for a long time, I realized that correctly predicting the direction is just the cheapest skill. What truly determines profit or loss is the position size you use, how much volatility you can withstand, and whether you admit your mistakes. I used to have this experience: I judged that BTC would rise in the mid-term, so I kept increasing my position size, even using leverage. In the end, the direction was indeed correct, but before the rise, the price dropped 10%, and I couldn't hold on and stopped out; when the price restarted, I chased the high unwillingly, resulting in "correct view, losing account." The market won't take care of your entry position just because you got the big trend right. Especially in the crypto market, the main players like to clear out those with heavy positions and insufficient patience before starting in the right direction. Another more common scenario: taking profits quickly with small positions but continuously adding to losing large positions. You make pocket money when winning, but one mistake can wipe out all the profits from the previous months. Later I understood that trading is not a guessing game of ups and downs but a game of odds management. It's not scary to be wrong on direction; what's scary is one mistake that can knock you out. Being right on direction doesn't guarantee profit either; losing control of position size can turn correctness into disaster. Remember: the market rewards not those who are right the most times, but those who lose the least when wrong and can stay in the game when right.

The most dangerous signal has appeared: neither falling nor rising! $BTC has been retreating from around $125,000, with highs continuously moving lower. The rebounds are always suppressed by the descending trendline. Recently, the price has been consolidating around $64,000 with decreasing volatility, approaching the end of a converging triangle. This pattern is very similar to $6000 in 2018 and $20,000 in 2022. At that time, the market believed the risk had been released and the consolidation zone was safe enough. However, in 2018 it fell to about $3200, and in 2022 after the FTX incident it dropped to about $15,500. Before both breakdowns, there were similar characteristics: the major trend was still downward, volatility kept narrowing, and rebound highs kept getting lower. It’s the same now. ETF funds have supported the downside but have not pushed BTC to break through the descending trendline, indicating that new buying is being absorbed by miners, long-term holders, and trapped positions. Therefore, long-term consolidation within a downtrend may not be a buildup but could be the exhaustion of the last support. $65,500-$67,000: Only a volume-backed hold here offers a chance to see $70,000-$73,000 $61,000-$62,000: A break below indicates the triangle will resolve downward $58,000-$60,000: The last defensive platform; losing this may target $52,000-$55,000 Currently, low-volatility oscillation has lasted 2 months, and in Q4 we expect a bottom and a real big opportunity! (Looking forward to another perfect dip and rebound) #现货ETF资金分化，BTC卖压仍在

#本周三CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ In short: The CPI will determine the market's repricing of the Federal Reserve's policy path in September. The key is not the data level itself, but whether inflation risks getting out of control again. Currently, the market has started to bet on a policy shift in September. However, if the CPI continues to decline, it indicates easing inflationary pressure, and the market will further reduce concerns about rate hikes, potentially supporting risk assets. Conversely, if the CPI rebounds beyond expectations, especially if core inflation rises again, the market may reprice: Rising rate hike expectations → U.S. Treasury yields increase → U.S. dollar strengthens → U.S. stocks, BTC, and other risk assets come under pressure. The biggest contradiction in the market now is that economic data has not shown a clear recession, but inflation has not fully returned to target. If the CPI data is hotter than expected, the expectation that the Fed will "maintain high interest rates for longer" will strengthen. For BTC, the key is not the CPI itself, but how the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields move after the data release. A weaker dollar and falling yields are favorable for BTC to break through resistance near 66000; If yields continue to rise, BTC may retest support around 63000–64000. Remember: The market is not trading a single CPI report, but the Fed's policy direction over the coming months. Data changes expectations, and expectations change capital flows.

#现货ETF资金回流，BTC与ETH能否接力？ ETF inflows of $860 million, why can't BTC still rise? In the past 5 trading days, BTC spot ETFs have had a net inflow of about 13,532 BTC, equivalent to approximately $860 million, but the price still hasn't stabilized above $65,000. The money hasn't disappeared; it has been absorbed by sell orders. The $65,000 to $66,000 range is a previous high-volume trading zone, where trapped positions and short-term funds are cashing out. ETF buying still needs to absorb miners', long-term holders', and institutions' portfolio adjustments. This data indicates two things: Without ETF absorption, BTC might have already fallen back to $62,000 to $63,000; but despite such large inflows, it still can't break through $65,000, which also shows heavy selling pressure above. For the short term, focus on two levels: Hold above $65,800, watch $66,600 to $67,500 Break below $64,000, watch $63,200, and if lost, then $62,500 It's not that no one is buying now; rather, buying is temporarily being absorbed by selling. A true bullish signal would be if the same ETF inflows start to push prices higher.

#财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？ Is SpaceX's surge a reversal or just short covering? SpaceX rebounded from $104.83 to $136.10, rising nearly 25% in two days. The rise was not driven by new positive news but by the market's relief that the anticipated selling pressure from lock-up expirations did not materialize. Q2 revenue was about $7.8 billion, up over 90% year-over-year, and net loss narrowed to $541 million. After approximately 912 million shares became eligible for circulation, the stock price actually rose with increased volume, forcing shorts to cover. However, the trend reversal cannot be confirmed yet. The stock price has retraced over 53% from the high of $225.64. Currently, support appears between $104 and $110, but the real dividing line is $135, which is both the IPO price and the cost basis for early investors. Key points to watch next week: - Holding above $135 and breaking through $142, then targeting $148 to $152 - Pulling back to $132-$135 without breaking down, maintaining strong consolidation - Falling below $130, indicating this rally is more likely short covering, with downside to $122-$126 My judgment is that SpaceX may first test $138 to $142, then pull back to confirm $135. Only a strong volume-supported hold above $142 will give this rally a chance to upgrade from an oversold recovery to a phase reversal. There is another lock-up expiration window in late August. Compared to daily gains, I am more concerned whether the stock can continue to hold $135 when the next batch of shares is released.

BTC has been consolidating for two months. Why does a sideways market cause more losses than a crash? A crash is scary, but at least the direction is clear; the most tormenting part of a sideways market is that every day makes you feel like "a big move is about to happen." I used to be busiest during consolidation: chasing longs on breakouts, cutting losses on pullbacks; chasing shorts on breakdowns, then cutting losses on rebounds. After a month of this, $BTC was almost in the same place, but my account was worn down significantly by fees, funding rates, and continuous small losses. Later I realized that sideways doesn't mean no market action; it means the market is waiting for new capital and consensus. Before the range is broken, neither bulls nor bears have sustained momentum. Many fluctuations that look like starts are just liquidations of leverage and harvesting liquidity from chasing rallies and panicking on dips. What's worse is that after several fake breakouts, people start doubting the rules. They hold through when they should cut losses, then hesitate to chase when a real breakout happens, ultimately wasting patience on worthless fluctuations and leaving their emotions for real opportunities. Bear markets destroy principal; sideways markets destroy discipline. The most effective way to deal with it is not to improve prediction ability but to reduce trading frequency, acting only at the edges of the range or after confirmed breakouts. Remember: when the market moves sideways for a long time, being out of the market is not missing out on opportunities but refusing to let your principal be repeatedly eroded.

From the SOPR indicator perspective, $BTC has not yet reached the true cycle bottom! Conclusion first: The BTC cycle low may appear between October 4 and November 20, 2026, with a focus on late October. The core price range is $44,000 to $53,000, with the midpoint around $48,000. In the previous three cycles, BTC took 410 days, 363 days, and 376 days respectively to fall from the cycle top to the final low, averaging about 383 days. This cycle's top appeared on October 6, 2025. Based on historical cycles, the low point is roughly expected between October and November this year. LTH-SOPR is also worth continued observation. When this indicator falls below 1, it indicates that long-term holders have started selling at a loss, but it cannot directly determine the lowest point. More importantly, when the price hits a new low again, whether LTH-SOPR stops deteriorating matters. If the price continues to fall but the loss-selling from old coins does not increase, it indicates that selling pressure is waning. My projection path is: testing $54,000 to $58,000 in September, entering the core bottom zone of $44,000 to $53,000 in October to November, and in extreme cases, possibly dipping to $38,000 to $42,000. After the low appears, it still requires 3-5 months for sufficient turnover to start a new round of rally! Therefore, the lowest price appearing does not mean the bear market ends immediately. The hardest phase is often when the price has bottomed but the market still cannot see a new trend.

#存储股财报后续跌，AI内存牛市还稳吗？ This round of decline looks more like a repricing after expectations were overdrawn; demand has not disappeared, but the market is no longer satisfied with "decent performance" and instead demands companies to continue significantly exceeding expectations. Over the past year, capital has successively traded on AI computing power, HBM price increases, and storage cycle reversals. The question has shifted from "Does AI need memory?" to "How fast can demand continue to grow, and can profit margins keep improving?" Micron (MU) benefits from HBM volume growth, AI server demand, and DRAM cycle improvement. The fundamentals have not significantly weakened. The post-earnings adjustment mainly reflects the previous excessive price increase, with capital beginning to digest the valuation. Market focus: $800 to $820: first support; around $750: strong support; $900: short-term resistance. After stabilizing above $900, look towards $950 to $1000. SNDK mainly benefits from NAND, enterprise SSDs, and AI data center storage. Earnings were good, but the market worries whether NAND prices can be maintained and how much room there is left for margin improvement. Market focus: $1100 to $1150: short-term support; $1000: important defense level; $1300 to $1350: first resistance; $1500: confirmation level for trend strengthening. My judgment is that the AI memory market is not over, but the easiest first phase to make money has passed. Going forward, the market will be more selective; only companies that can continuously deliver on demand, orders, and profit margins will qualify for higher valuations.

There is no shortage of buying pressure in the short term, but the direction has not yet emerged! $BTC is currently around 65,000. Short positions above are mainly concentrated between 65,500 and 65,800. If it holds above this level, a short squeeze may be triggered, with targets between 66,300 and 67,500. Leverage is denser below, with a large number of long positions stacked between 63,800 and 63,200. If 65,800 fails to break through for a long time and the price falls below 64,000, the market may first clear longs, then look to 63,200 and 62,500. From August 3 to 6, the US spot BTC ETF saw net inflows for four consecutive days, totaling about $764 million, indicating institutions are still accumulating. However, despite the capital inflow, the price has not broken through, and selling pressure above 65,000 remains heavy. In the short term, only two levels matter: Holding above 65,800 means strength; Falling below 64,000 means weakness. Currently, BTC is still oscillating between 63,200 and 65,800. Liquidation charts cannot predict direction; they only tell us where a stampede is most likely to occur.