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23% surge in two days, shorts lose 9 billion: Is SPCX's rebound valuation repair or a short squeeze kill? Have you ever seen a stock plunge 14% the day before the largest unlock in history, then surge 23% for two consecutive days? SpaceX did it. After market close on August 4, SpaceX released its first post-IPO earnings report—revenue of $7.814 billion, up 92% year-over-year, far exceeding the expected $6.9 billion; net loss narrowed from $1.008 billion to $541 million; adjusted EBITDA soared from $1.2 billion to $3.5 billion, up 191% year-over-year. By all accounts, a strong earnings report. Then on August 5, the stock plunged 13.6%, closing at $108.27, a new post-IPO closing low. Market cap evaporated over $1 trillion from the $225 all-time high. Do you know people who, seeing revenue double and losses halve, eagerly bought the dip only to lose 15% overnight? Because you’re not looking at the same thing. You see revenue. The market sees capital expenditure. Q2 capex was $18.369 billion, 6.5 times the $2.825 billion in the same period last year. Of that, $15.828 billion went to AI compute infrastructure, accounting for 86.2% of total capex, which is 6.2 times the AI business’s quarterly revenue. The money Starlink makes ($4.291 billion revenue, $1.656 billion profit) isn’t enough to fill the AI and aerospace money pits. AI business lost $1.257 billion, aerospace lost $542 million. Of the three segments, only Starlink is profitable. The other two are money sinks. Musk said on the call: compute power will exceed 2 gigawatts by year-end, nearly 10 gigawatts by next year-end. In plain terms: the cash burn is just beginning. The market voted with its feet—stock plunged 14% after earnings. But the story isn’t over. More frightening than earnings is the unlock. On August 6, the first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked, increasing float from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. At the then stock price, that’s about $100 billion potential selling pressure. This is the largest lockup expiration in U.S. capital market history. Shorts went crazy. According to S3 Partners data, as of July 29, short positions reached 219.3 million shares, 34% of the float. 95% of lendable shares were already borrowed. The nominal short size even exceeded Tesla’s short bets. This isn’t just shorting. This is all-in betting on SpaceX’s collapse. Shorts had once booked paper gains exceeding $9 billion. Then, the reversal came. August 6, unlock day. Stock didn’t crash but rose 6.14%, closing at $114.92. Trading volume was 255 million shares. August 7, surged another 15.83%, closing at $133.11. Two-day cumulative gain about 23%, market cap increased over $327 billion. Just under $2 from the $135 IPO price. The script completely reversed. Why? Three words: short covering. Let’s break down the logic of this situation— Step 1: Before earnings, shorts frantically increased positions to 34%, betting on disappointing earnings + unlock sell-off. Step 2: Earnings were actually good (revenue beat, loss narrowed), but scary capex caused a 14% drop. Shorts booked big paper profits. Step 3: Unlock day arrived. Shorts waited for early employees and investors to dump shares. Step 4: No dump. Early investors not only didn’t sell, some bought. Step 5: Stock rose instead of falling. Shorts panicked—219 million short shares, every $1 rise means $219 million loss. Step 6: Shorts rushed to cover. Covering means buying. Buying pushed price higher. Higher price forced more shorts to cover. This is the classic short squeeze script. Even more intense are signals from the options market. On Thursday, a professional trader made this move— Sold $12 million worth of $90 strike put options expiring June next year, while buying $4.3 million worth of $220 strike call options with the same expiry. Net collected $7.7 million in premiums. In plain terms: this person bets SPCX won’t drop 20% in the next 10 months, and also bets the stock could double. That afternoon, another similar trade: sold $75 puts, bought $185 calls, expiring January 2028. Smart money is using a "sell put + buy call" combo, heavily betting SpaceX has bottomed. On Friday, total options volume hit 2.24 million contracts, with 1.3 million calls, a record high. Capital is flowing back in. But don’t celebrate too soon. Over 250 million shares remain shorted, about 16% of tradable shares. Shorts were just squeezed once, not wiped out. And more unlocks are coming—319 million shares may unlock on August 20, about 700 million in September, nearly 700 million in October. Is this rebound a valuation repair after bad news is priced in, or a short squeeze-driven short-term spike? Depends on two things: First, will shorts continue to add positions and fight back? Second, will early investors sell in the upcoming unlock rounds? To be blunt: This SPCX script is essentially gamblers betting on a company’s life or death. Shorts bet SpaceX can’t support its valuation; bulls bet Musk can deliver on promises. Both sides are heavily staked, but chips are completely asymmetric— Shorts hold 250 million borrowed shares, vulnerable to forced covering. Bulls hold Musk’s "$1 trillion revenue by 2030" dream. How far can a rebound propped up by trading structure go? $SPCX $BTC $ETH #财报观察员：空头回补成焦点，SpaceX后续怎么看？