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100 billion unlock not falling but rising 6%! Wall Street finally realizes: Wednesday's plunge was the real "unlock sell-off" Do you know anyone like this? Tuesday's earnings report came out—revenue 7.8 billion, a year-over-year surge of 92%, far exceeding expectations. Net loss narrowed from 1 billion to 540 million, loss per share 9 cents, much better than the market's expected 26 cents. All positive news. Then on Wednesday, the stock price plunged 14%, marking the second-largest single-day drop since listing. Everyone was stunned. "Wasn't the performance pretty good? Why?" Why? Because you're still looking at this market with old perspectives. On Thursday, SpaceX saw the first batch of 911.5 million restricted shares unlocked. Based on Wednesday's closing price, the potential released market value was about 100 billion dollars. Tradable shares doubled from 639 million to 1.55 billion shares. Everyone thought—100 billion selling pressure, the stock price must collapse. What happened? It opened not down but up 5%, with 93 million shares traded in the first half hour, equivalent to 40% of the previous trading day's total volume. The full-day volume was 255 million shares, closing up 6.14% at 114.92 dollars. The expected massive sell-off simply did not happen. But don't get it wrong—the sell-off did happen, just on Wednesday. On Wednesday, SpaceX's short positions reached about 36% of the float, with unrealized gains exceeding 9 billion dollars. AI capital expenditure was 18.37 billion, a year-over-year surge of 550%, far exceeding analyst expectations—the market used this "negative" news to clear out early. Wednesday's 14% plunge was the real "unlock sell-off." By the time Thursday's unlock actually landed, the "negative news fully priced in" signal sounded, and shorts panicked. With 36% of the float shorted, once the stock price didn't fall but rose, short covering became a stampede buy. Plus, retail investors had already started bottom-fishing during Wednesday's plunge—net buying 22.7 million dollars in the first hour of trading—Thursday's rebound was a triple force of short covering + bottom-fishing funds + passive allocation. Wall Street's attitude is also interesting. JPMorgan raised the target price from 225 dollars to 240 dollars, Goldman Sachs set it at 220 dollars, Morgan Stanley reiterated 300 dollars. Morgan Stanley analysts said: "Unlock is an entry point, not a negative warning." More than half of the target price comes from AI business valuation. But the reality on the other side is—SpaceX's Q2 AI business revenue was 2.56 billion, operating loss 1.26 billion. Burning 18.3 billion in capital expenditure, the AI business is still losing money. Musk said on the call: AI computing capital expenditure payback period is less than one year. ARR will exceed 100 billion by year-end, with a revenue target of 1 trillion by 2030. The story is very attractive, but the books are honest. One last truth— SpaceX this time uses a nine-stage phased unlock mechanism, not the traditional IPO's 180-day one-time unlock. On August 20, another 319 million shares will unlock, about 700 million in September, nearly 700 million in October. By early December, the float will surge to 5.33 billion shares. In June 2027, Musk's own 6.4 billion shares will also unlock. A victorious first battle does not mean the war is over. In the coming months, each round of unlock will be a stress test. The real challenge is still ahead. $BTC $SPCX $TSLA #财报观察员：解禁后反涨，SpaceX后续怎么看？