Post

挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
Show original
4.4万就业 vs 3.5%通胀:美联储自己被架在火上烤,我们跟着受罪 昨晚美国7月ADP就业数据出来了——4.4万。 市场预期7.5万。前值9.5万(还是下修过的)。 这意味着美国私营部门7月新增就业,创下了今年1月以来的最低水平。 所有经济学家的预测,全部落空。 就业引擎,熄火了。 但是—— 6月CPI同比3.5%,核心CPI 2.6%。美联储2%的目标,还在天上飘着。 美联储理事库克上周直接放话:“通胀风险高于就业风险” 。 达拉斯联储主席洛根更狠:“每一个高于目标水平的通胀月份,都在不断加重美国人的生活预算压力” 。 另一边,明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利说:“宁愿现在小步行动,也不愿等待” 。 美联储副主席杰斐逊说:如果通胀不能很快降温,“应该考虑加息” 。 但纽约联储主席威廉姆斯是鸽派:“当前货币政策定位恰到好处” 。 一边在喊“加”,一边在喊“停”。 美联储自己都吵翻了,你让市场怎么跟? CME的数据告诉你—— 9月加息25个基点的概率:54.4% 。 9月维持利率不变的概率:45.6% 。 54.4对45.6。 跟抛硬币有什么区别? 市场自己都不知道该押哪边。 比特币现货ETF周二净流入 2.115亿美元。 但比特币价格呢? 还是6.4万美元附近,纹丝不动。 机构在买,真金白银往里砸。但散户不敢跟。 2个亿的净流入,连6.5万的门槛都推不动。 为什么? 因为没人知道下周会发生什么。 周五非农——如果数据继续烂,加息概率降,利好。 下周三CPI——如果通胀继续粘,加息概率升,利空。 利好和利空,就在这两份报告之间来回切换。 你今天进去,明天可能就被埋。 美联储现在的处境是什么? 加息→压制通胀→但可能直接杀死就业。 不加息→就业得救→但通胀固化,3.5%永远降不到2%。 不管选哪边,都有人要受伤。 沃什说双重使命之间不存在“冲突”。 但市场看到的全是冲突。 就业数据在喊“停”,通胀数据在喊“加”。 美联储自己被架在火上烤,我们这些持币的跟着受罪。 未来两周,剧本已经写好了: 周五非农公布→市场先反应一波。 下周三CPI公布→市场再反向反应一波。 “就业疲软→不加息”和“通胀顽固→继续加”之间,反复横跳。 做好过山车准备。 别追高。别满仓。别跟数据对着干。 $BTC $ETH #ADP就业降温,联储政策分歧加剧
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
To be honest—— In the crypto circle, the name "Warren" is basically synonymous with a public enemy. She is anti-Bitcoin, anti-ETF, and wants to strangle the entire industry. Over the past few years, every time she speaks, we wish she would just shut up. But this time, it's different. On August 4th, Warren and Democratic Senator Blumenthal jointly sent a letter to SEC Chair Atkins. They requested an investigation into one thing: whether Trump's meme coin TRUMP is a "Rug Pull." I know what you want to say—"Warren is just doing political attacks again." Hold on, look at the data. On January 17, 2025, three days before inauguration, the TRUMP token was launched. The next day, Trump himself posted a promotion on X. The market cap once surged to $9 billion. And then? Now the coin price is less than $1.5. It has dropped 98% from its peak. Nearly 1 million wallets suffered losses, with a total loss of $3.81 billion. Two-thirds of buyers lost all their money. Meanwhile—how much did Trump-related entities earn from this coin? $636 million. 80% of the token supply is held by parties related to the Trump Organization. Nearly 1 million people lost $3.8 billion. One person earned $636 million. This is not something that can be glossed over with "markets have risks, invest cautiously." This is blatant "power monetization." A president launched a coin three days before taking office, endorsed it with his name and position, called on supporters to buy in, and then—nothing. The coin price dropped 98%, supporters lost their money, the president's wallet got fat. Warren wrote a sentence in the letter that I read three times: "Even if potential violators include those with strong political connections, the SEC must enforce the law." That sentence is spot on. I know you want to say: "Meme coins are not securities, the SEC has no jurisdiction." Indeed, the SEC itself has said before that meme coins have "limited use or function" and do not meet the definition of securities. But this time it's different. This is not a dog coin launched by an anonymous team. This is the U.S. president promoting it with his official account, endorsing it with his identity, raising funds among his supporters. And then earning $636 million. If this is not "profiting from power," then what is? If this is not worth investigating, then do the words "conflict of interest" still mean anything? Some say Warren is doing politics, pressuring the negotiation of the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Maybe. But political motives aside, the problem itself remains. You can oppose all of Warren's crypto policies. You can think she just wants to kill innovation. But the question she raised this time— "A president launched a coin three days before inauguration, causing nearly a million supporters to lose $3.8 billion while he earned $636 million, and the SEC chair regulating him was appointed by himself"— This question itself is valid. For the crypto industry to truly go mainstream, it must accept one reality: When a president launches a coin to harvest supporters, the entire industry's credibility is being overdrawn. We shout every day "Don't trust, verify." But the president launches a coin, supporters don't even bother to verify, they just rush in. After rushing in, they lose 98%, then who do they blame? The market? The whales? Or the person who launched the coin? We cannot shout "decentralization" on one hand and tolerate the most centralized power cutting leeks in this circle on the other. I am not a supporter of Warren. I wasn't before, I'm not now, and most likely won't be in the future. But this time, the question she raised deserves every crypto practitioner to seriously think about. Not about "how to fight back against Warren," But about—does our industry really want to have a bottom line? $BTC $TRUMP $WLFI #特朗普代币遭参议员要求调查

Disclaimer: OKX Orbit content is provided for informational purposes only. Learn more

Replies

No comments yet. Be the first to reply!