Brent crude oil has fallen below $80.
WTI crude oil futures settlement price dropped 5.69%, closing at $75.77 per barrel; Brent crude oil futures settlement price dropped 5.26%, closing at $79.36 per barrel. WTI intraday once fell below $75, hitting a new low since January this year.
$80, the level where everyone was shouting "breaking $100 is just a matter of time" a month ago, has just been broken.
And then? The three major US stock indexes all rose, with the Nasdaq up 2.59%, and both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hitting record highs. Bitcoin remains steady above $64,000.
Oil prices fell, risk assets rose. This chain is connected.
Let me break down this transmission chain for you:
Strait of Hormuz reopens → Crude oil supply resumes → Oil prices plunge → Inflation pressure eases → Fed rate hike expectations cool down → Risk asset valuations recover
It's that simple. But this simple chain determines whether your account is in the red or green.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the US and Iran "may reach an agreement today or tomorrow" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ agreed to increase production for the sixth consecutive month in September. The double supply-side benefits directly pushed this "war premium" to rock-bottom prices.
The oil price plunge eased inflation concerns and suppressed market expectations of more than one Fed rate hike this year. The 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen for two consecutive days. Funds are flowing from safe-haven assets to risk assets—
SK Hynix up 8%, Micron up 7.6%, SanDisk up 10.8%, Nvidia up over 2%.
Got it? Oil price is the "master switch" of this rebound.
But don’t celebrate too early.
What drives this round of oil price decline? It’s "expectations," not "facts."
The agreement hasn’t been signed yet. Iran denies direct talks with the US, insisting the only ongoing consultation is with Oman regarding strait passage arrangements. Rubio said talks "have made progress but are not complete." Qatar said a draft agreement is circulating but no final text has been formed.
Yellen said "it could be reached today"—but Iran said "I haven’t talked to you."
Who do you believe?
If the agreement is only a "temporary 60-day mechanism" rather than a permanent solution, and if the deal falls through in the next couple of days, oil prices may rebound after the sharp drop. Then this US stock rally and BTC rise would be a false breakout.
For the crypto world, the real make-or-break point is here:
If oil prices stay below $80, Q3 CPI data will significantly decline, and the probability of Fed rate hikes in 2026 will decrease—this is the biggest macro-level positive.
But if the oil price drop is just a flash in the pan, rate hike expectations will rise again, and risk assets will be crushed once more.
Don’t just watch BTC’s candlestick charts; keep a close eye on news flow about the Strait of Hormuz.
In the coming weeks, oil price will be the true "macro commander" for the crypto world.
If the agreement is signed, oil prices continue to fall, BTC keeps rising. If the agreement fails, oil prices violently rebound, and BTC gets smashed along with it.
It’s that simple. It’s that brutal.
$BTC$BZ$CL#美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元
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