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Kshsb
Kshsb
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这张图和Strategy这一条放在一起看很有意思,形成了一个微妙的对照。$BTC ETF今天单日净流入1.701亿美元,以太坊ETF反而净流出1770万美元,这个方向和我上周提到的以太坊ETF连续四周净流入的趋势是背离的,说明资金这两天开始掉头。 放在Saylor那件事的背景下看更耐人寻味,一边是Strategy这种大户在减持,一边是ETF这个更广谱的资金渠道还在净流入,说明散户和机构渠道对比特币的态度目前是分裂的,不是一致看空也不是一致看多。 另一个值得记的变化是山寨币季节指数,现在跌到48,已经从我几天前看到的58掉回了中性线以下,重新滑回比特币季节的区间,而且比特币市场占有率还在58.62%这个高位没松动。 这和ETH ETF转为净流出是同一个逻辑的两个切面,资金现在明显更愿意抱团在比特币这一侧,山寨币这边的边际买盘正在变薄。 社交情绪这块显示看涨1.50,比之前的1.37还要更乐观一点,但ETH Gas费只有0.11Gwei,虽然比前几天的0.08略微回升,链上活动量级还是很低。 这几组数据放一起,我的判断没变,情绪面偏乐观和资金面出现分化,这种组合通常不是趋势确立的信号,更像是市场还在等一个更明确的方向,ETF这条资金线接下来往哪边走,比社交情绪本身更值得盯紧。#MSTR再卖1638枚比特币,规模腰斩 #从降息到加息,联储分歧全公开 #Palantir营收增93%,盘后涨13% $BTC $MSTR
Kshsb
Kshsb
The most noteworthy topic in the crypto circle recently is Saylor's rare public face-slapping moment. Over the weekend, there was a viral rumor online that Strategy had newly approved a $5 billion $BTC selling quota. The news spread rapidly, and Saylor himself came out to put out the fire, saying this was not new information; it had already been disclosed in the capital management framework on June 29 and was just being recycled as news. This explanation itself is not a lie, but what’s more intriguing is the next part, where he immediately emphasized that the company has never had a policy of never selling, and he specifically separated his personal holdings from the company’s treasury operations, saying he has never sold a single satoshi, but Strategy is a publicly listed company, not his personal wallet. This statement, when compared with his past classic declaration of never selling Bitcoin, is quite a contrast. No wonder someone quickly dug up his old video where he said "we only buy, never sell" for comparison. In terms of facts, the SEC filing on August 3 shows that Strategy did indeed sell 1,638 $BTC last week at an average price of $63,957, reducing its holdings to 842,138 coins. This is the second substantial reduction after selling 2,225 coins in early July, and there have been no new purchases for over five consecutive weeks. What’s even more painful is the cost structure: the company’s current average cost per coin is $75,419, while the current price is just over $63,000. This means that unrealized losses on the books have become the norm rather than an exception. Coupled with a poor Q2 earnings report showing a net loss of $8.22 billion, earnings per share of negative $24.45 far below the market expectation of $3.07, and revenue slightly missing expectations. My own view is that buying and selling $BTC itself is not the problem; any institution has the right to manage capital flexibly. The real issue is the gap between the narrative and the actions being magnified in the public market. For a company whose stock price premium is driven by faith, once holders start to question whether the founder’s statements are consistent, this trust cost is harder to repair than the unrealized losses on the books themselves. #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币,规模腰斩 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币,规模腰斩 #MSTR再卖1638枚比特币,规模腰斩

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