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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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843,775枚BTC的“巨鲸停食”:市场最大的买盘消失了 Strategy昨天盘后发了Q2财报。 82.2亿美元净亏损。 每股亏24.45美元。去年同期每股还赚32.6美元。 亏在哪?几乎全是比特币持仓的公允价值减记——说白了,币价跌了,账面上得认亏。 但这不是重点。 重点是另一句话—— Strategy宣布:结束“逢低全买”策略。 未来新增资金,在比特币和美元储备之间分配。 翻译成人话:以后有钱,不一定买币了。 画风变了。 过去两年,Strategy是市场上最稳定的“净买入流动性池”。 每周几亿美金的刚性买盘,雷打不动。 不管牛市熊市,不管6万还是3万——买。 市场早就习惯了:跌了不怕,Strategy会接盘。 现在这个池子,关了。 截至7月26日,Strategy持有843,775枚BTC,占比特币总量的4.02%。 但近五周——零增持。 最近一次披露的比特币购入,发生在6月22日。 五周了。一粒SAT没买。 再看成本价。 总收购成本636.9亿美元,均价75,476美元/枚。 7月27日比特币价格约64,915美元。 7月31日跌到62,660美元。 浮亏多少?接近90亿美元。 843,775枚币,每枚亏1.2万美金。 这意味着什么? 75,476美元,现在是市场最大的心理防线。 过去,这个价格是“钻石手”的信仰——Strategy均价在这儿,说明大佬看好。 现在? 变成了“保本出”的抛压线。 一旦币价跌破这个位置,原本最坚定的持有者——那个买了843,775枚BTC的巨鲸——可能变成市场上最坚定的卖家。 为什么? 因为Strategy已经打破了“只买不卖”的传说。 今年已经卖了约2.18亿美元的比特币,用来支付优先股股息。 6月刚启动“比特币货币化计划”,授权最多出售12.5亿美元BTC。 CEO说的很清楚:未来回购优先股的资金,可能来自卖MSTR股票,也可能来自——卖比特币。 过去两年,你每次抄底都有人接盘——那个人是Strategy。 现在那个人不在了。 不仅不买了,还可能变成卖家。 每周几亿的刚性买盘消失,取而代之的是潜在的抛压。 供需天平,翻过来了。 $BTC $MSTR $XMSTR #Strategy终止逢低买币,Q2账面亏82亿
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
That most aggressive "die-hard bull" has started hoarding USDT Yesterday, when Strategy's financial report came out, the entire crypto community was sharing one number: $8.22 billion, net loss for the quarter. A loss of $24.45 per share, compared to a profit of $32.60 per share in the same period last year. MSTR's stock price has dropped 75% over the past year. But what really shocked the market wasn't the loss figure— it was Saylor breaking his "buy and never sell" mantra. What happened? Strategy currently holds 843,775 BTC at an average cost of $75,476 each. At the current price of $62,000–$63,000, the unrealized loss exceeds $10 billion. Bitcoin fell 14% in Q2, wiping out $8.2 billion in book value impairment alone. Even more drastic—the company announced it is ending the "buy the dip all in" strategy, and new funds will be allocated between BTC and USD reserves. In plain terms: no more all-in. For the past 5 years, Saylor's slogan was "just buy." Regardless of price, whenever financing arrived, he went all in on BTC. Now even he has started hoarding USDT. Cash reserves have grown to $3.75 billion, enough to cover dividends and interest for over two years. That once most fanatical die-hard bull has hit the pause button at the $60,000 level. What does this mean? It doesn't mean Saylor is bearish on Bitcoin's long-term prospects. It means he believes: the short term is unsustainable. What does $3.75 billion in cash mean? It means he can survive the next two years without being forced to sell, no matter how far BTC falls. He's buying insurance to "stay alive." And insurance is only bought when you think a storm might be coming. So how should ordinary people follow? Institutional thinking can actually be copied. Saylor's new strategy boils down to one sentence— "Bullish long-term, defensive short-term." Translated into action: balance offense and defense, don't go all in. My recent approach is a "50-50 allocation": • 50% of funds: place staggered buy orders at $60,000, $58,000, and $55,000 to accumulate BTC—buying more as it falls, this is "offense." • 50% of funds: keep in USDT-based yield products to earn interest, or hold some short positions as a hedge—in case of further drops, I have ammo to average down, this is "defense." If it rises, I don't miss out; if it falls, I have backup. Don't underestimate this strategy. Saylor manages hundreds of billions this way; if you have tens of thousands of USDT, why not leave yourself a way out? When you went all in at last year's peak, you thought, "Anyway, Saylor never sold." Now Saylor has started selling, and you're still holding hard. He hoards USDT, you hoard coins; he bottoms out, you go full position—this is the difference between institutions and retail. $BTC $MSTR $XMSTR #Strategy终止逢低买币,Q2账面亏82亿

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