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Kshsb
Kshsb
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所以这几天长鑫的消息,其实让我更加坚定了之前对存储行业的一个观点。 很多人喜欢把 HBM、DRAM、NAND 全部统称为“存储”,然后觉得 AI 来了,整个行业都会一直赚钱。 但我一直认为,存储和英伟达最大的区别,在于护城河。 这里说的不是进入门槛。 DRAM 制造的门槛依然非常高,长鑫也是投入了十几年、花了巨额资金才走到今天,绝不是一家普通公司就能做出来。 真正的问题在于产品的不可替代性。 对于很多终端客户来说,他们需要的是一颗性能达标、良率稳定、供应可靠的存储芯片。 只要达到标准,价格合适,就有机会进入供应链。 这也是为什么现在市场会高度关注长鑫。 因为一旦它的技术持续追赶,产能不断释放,就意味着三星、SK 海力士、美光未来面对的不只是需求增长,还有新增供给带来的竞争压力。 最近市场还有消息称,苹果也开始评估国产存储方案。如果未来更多国际厂商愿意测试甚至采用新的供应商,对于整个存储行业来说,竞争只会越来越激烈。 反过来看英伟达。 别人不是不能设计 AI 芯片。 AMD、Google、Amazon、Meta、微软,甚至 OpenAI 都在做。 真正难的是让客户离不开你。 CUDA、NVLink、TensorRT、CUDA-X,以及整个开发者生态,把硬件、软件和开发工具绑成了一套完整体系。 所以英伟达面对的是生态竞争。 而存储更多面对的是制造竞争。 一个比的是谁更难被替代。 一个比的是谁成本更低、良率更高、扩产更快。 这也是为什么我一直觉得,投资存储要花更多精力去跟踪供需周期、扩产计划、库存变化和价格走势。 而投资一家拥有生态护城河的公司,更重要的是持续观察它的商业模式有没有被打破。 我的观点一直没有变。存储行业当然可以赚钱,尤其是在 AI 周期里,但它赚的钱更多来自供需错配;而真正拥有生态护城河的公司,赚的是规则制定权。我更愿意长期投资后者。 #AI #HBM #DRAM #长鑫存储 #三星 #SK海力士 #美光 #英伟达 #半导体 #投资观点
Kshsb
Kshsb
Actually, I increasingly feel that when investing in a company, what you really need to study is not the product, but the business model. Because technology can be caught up with, the business model often determines how much money a company can make in the long term. Why do I always believe that most storage companies have obvious cyclical characteristics? The reason is not only that DRAM, HBM, or NAND are affected by supply and demand, but more importantly, most of them adopt the IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) model. From chip design, wafer manufacturing to packaging and testing, almost the entire production process must be completed by themselves. The advantage of this model is that it can control technology and capacity, but the cost is also very high. A wafer fab, an EUV lithography machine, an advanced packaging production line—all are huge investments. Even if the market enters a downturn cycle, fixed expenses such as equipment depreciation, factory maintenance, personnel costs, and continuous capacity expansion still exist and will not decrease because of chip price drops. So when storage prices enter a downward cycle, profits are often quickly compressed, and financial report fluctuations are very obvious. Looking at Nvidia from the opposite perspective. It does not build its own wafer fabs but focuses on chip design and outsources manufacturing to TSMC. Although this fabless model also bears foundry costs, it does not carry hundreds of billions of dollars in manufacturing assets, allowing more funds to be invested in CUDA, NVLink, software ecosystems, and next-generation product R&D. Therefore, I have always believed that a company's true moat is not just technological leadership but whether the business model can continuously generate high returns. Investment is often not about comparing whose technology is the best, but about comparing whose business model is more capable of weathering cycles.

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