美股投资young
美股投资young
美股科技投资者 ai狂热者 分享每日快讯. all in ai
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The biggest gainer in the S&P 500 last week was $AMD, which rose 18.9% from $449 to $534. The second was $AVGO, up 18.2%.
The worst performer was $FSLR, down 14.8%. Second to last was $NVDA, down 12.7% for the week, falling from $186.64 to $162.85, ranking 502nd out of 503 components.
In the same week, $SOXX rose 9.4%, and $MU, $ANET, and $CIEN were all near the top of the gainers list. $ARM rose about 9%, $ORCL about 8%. The seven giants ETF $MAGS only rose 1.7%, basically held back by $NVDA.
Jensen Huang resigned on the 12th, but $NVDA's decline this week started before that: it closed at $186.64 on the 6th, dropped to $173.73 on the 11th, a 7% drop, then continued down on the 12th and 13th.
As of last Friday this year, $AMD has risen about 149%, while $NVDA has fallen about 13%.
On the same AI chain, the week showed completely opposite directions. The market did not sell off the entire chain, only $NVDA itself was sold off. This does not yet mean the market share has been rewritten, but pricing has moved first: in the short term, it remains a core that is hard to replace, but its long-term certainty has been discounted.
The 17th is the first quarterly report after the leadership change. Whether this week's pricing has overshot or started to price in a new pattern needs to be verified with numbers.
Earnings haven't collapsed yet. FactSet wrote in the November 6th report that 88% of S&P 500 companies had reported Q3 results, with earnings up 31.4% year-over-year. If it closes at this level, it would be the third consecutive quarter with growth above 25%. 84% of companies beat earnings per share expectations, and 74% beat revenue expectations. Q4 earnings growth is expected at 28.4%, and full-year 2026 at 33.3%.
But the magnitude of beats is only 2.7%, compared to an average of 13.8% over the past year. The good reports remain, but the excess portion has thinned.
Valuations have actually become cheaper. According to FactSet's November 5th closing data, the forward P/E ratio is 17.7x, below the five-year average of 19.8x, marking the lowest since November 2023. Last Friday, the index closed at 7561.67 points; using the same earnings expectations for a rough calculation gives about 18.2x, which is not FactSet's official figure but indicates that after the rebound, valuations are a bit higher, yet still far from the highs of previous years. The 10-year US Treasury yield is at 5.15%, discounting growth stocks more tightly. This is a re-pricing of valuations; earnings have not disappeared.
Cloud vendors have not cut spending either. $AMZN still expects cash capital expenditures around $220 billion in 2026; $META narrowed full-year spending guidance to $135 billion to $145 billion; $MSFT said on its call about $170 billion for the calendar year, also mentioning third-party capacity delays; $GOOGL spent $51.4 billion on plant and equipment in Q3, with multiple sources maintaining full-year guidance of $195 billion to $205 billion. The four companies' figures are not fully aligned and cannot be simply summed, but none say demand is gone. The market debate now is about how expensive it will be to roll this spending, and whether receivables and long-term commitments can keep up.
By sector, $XLF closed at 58.68, not far from the 52-week high of 60.04 on November 5; $XLV closed at 188.85, also near that week's high; $XLE is above its 200-day moving average; $RSP is close to its 52-week high. The sharp declines are in the high-valuation, high-financing segment; this is not a picture of a total collapse.
Earnings and demand are still there; what is being re-priced are valuations and financing. This matches the post-bottom phase of choppy digestion, not a V-shaped reversal. Good earnings season numbers do not necessarily mean the rebound is a trend improvement.
At last Friday's close, $SPY, $QQQ, $SOXX, $IWM, and $RSP all remained between the November 5 low and November 11 high.
$SPY closed at 754.37. The lower boundary is the November 5 low of 732.71, and the upper boundary is the November 11 high of 762.51. The 200-day moving average is 731.92, with the price still above it; the 50-day moving average is 764.43, still above the price. RSI is around 47. Intraday on the 12th, it touched 763.04 but failed to hold at the close.
$QQQ closed at 679.89, with a lower boundary of 647.05 and an upper boundary of 695.57. The 200-day moving average is 682.24, which has been slightly breached; the 50-day moving average is 717.87, much further away. RSI is about 43.
$SOXX is the weakest, closing at 149.30, with a lower boundary of 130.75 and an upper boundary of 158.58. The 200-day moving average is 160.39 and the 50-day moving average is 171.90, both above the price. Last Friday alone, it moved from 144.64 to 154.37, showing significant volatility.
$IWM closed at 277.54, slightly below the 200-day moving average of 279.41 and the 50-day moving average of 280.76, with a range between 270.52 and 283.72.
$RSP closed at 221.16, having reached a 52-week high of 224.20 on November 5. Both moving averages are below the price, and RSI is around 57. The equal-weight index has not collapsed first; the decline is mainly concentrated in large-cap growth and semiconductors.
VIX closed at 19.30 last Friday, having surged to 28.18 on November 5; the three-month VIX3M closed at 20.62, with the near month below the far month, maintaining a normal contango structure, unlike the near-month inversion often seen during panic.
The five funds are not moving in unison now. $SPY remains above the 200-day moving average, about 3% above the lower boundary; $QQQ and $IWM are close to the 200-day moving average, with thinner buffers; $SOXX is far from both moving averages, showing the greatest elasticity and is most likely to traverse both the upper and lower boundaries of the range.
Holding the November 5 low means the phase bottom and range view still hold; breaking below means losing the lower boundary of the range, so a pause and reassessment are needed before filling the gap. On the upside, the November 11 high is the upper boundary tested by this rebound; touching it does not mean the trend has improved. Buy more near the lower boundary, buy less near the upper boundary; until volatility returns from panic levels, this looks more like back-and-forth movement within a range.
Next week will be extremely volatile 😭 either takeoff or worsening the situation
Data release on Monday
$NVDA earnings on Tuesday, the first earnings report in the post-Jensen Huang era
Heavyweight meetings on Wednesday and Thursday, plus a draining $ANT IPO
Most of the negative factors to be digested next week are already on the schedule, so it can't be called a sudden attack.
At 8:30 AM on the 17th (Eastern Time), October retail sales will be announced, and $NVDA will release its Q3 earnings after the market closes that day. This is Jensen Huang's first official report after his resignation, and the market will scrutinize accounts receivable, collection days, purchase commitments, and supply guidance. If these items loosen, there will be a short-term hit; if the numbers are clean and supply guidance is not downgraded, some pessimistic expectations may be pushed back.
On the afternoon of the 18th, the minutes of the October rate meeting will be released. At that meeting, rates were kept between 3.75% and 4.00%, with two members advocating a 25 basis point hike. If the minutes are even more hawkish, the December path will be raised again. However, a rate hike is already priced in at about 90%, and the only way the minutes can really scare people is if discussions are stronger than a 25 basis point hike. On the same day, $ANT pricing will occur, with a cap around $64.35 billion, competing for liquidity alongside U.S. Treasuries and the dollar.
On the 19th, $ANT will debut on Nasdaq, and on the same day, there will be a meeting between Xi and Trump during the Shenzhen APEC. Whether tariffs and exports will be discussed depends on the outcome; don't rush to label it as positive or negative now.
Several other factors are weighing in the background: 10-year U.S. Treasury yields at 5.15%, the dollar at a 52-week high; on November 30th close, MSCI will remove $MSTR from the U.S. index; and there will be hearings in early December.
Conversely, there could be surprises: retail data not hotter, minutes not more hawkish than the two dissenting votes, $NVDA's receivables and guidance holding up, $ANT pricing smoothly without draining liquidity too much, talks without added restrictions, and bond yields and the dollar retreating slightly from highs. If so, the upper range will be tested again.
There are three scenarios. If the negative factors land but do not break below the November 5th low, it means the known issues have been processed, and after a phase bottom, consolidation continues. If $SPY 733, $QQQ 647, $SOXX 130.75 are broken, risk needs to be reconsidered. If the negative factors are less than expected, the upper range will be tested.
With several events packed into three days, the market mood can change daily. Plan your positions in advance and don't change your view with every headline.
Risk assets couldn't rest this weekend. bitcoin:native closed at $68,249 last Friday, and on Sunday it hovered around 65,500, down about 4% from Friday's close, with an intraday low of 62,100 on Saturday. ethereum:native dropped from 1,928 to about 1,834, down 4.8%; $SOL fell from 78.1 to about 72.9, down 6.6%. On Sunday, all rebounded somewhat from their lows but did not return to Friday's closing levels.
Gold does not trade over the weekend, but it had already fallen significantly last week. COMEX gold futures closed at $3,886 last Friday, with an intraday low of 3,857 on the 12th, marking a 52-week low. From the intraday high of 4,158 on the 9th to Friday's close, it dropped about 6.5%.
In the same week, the US dollar index closed at 103.41, a 52-week high and the highest since April 2025. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 5.154%, rising about 30 basis points over the week.
The reasons given by the market for this round of gold decline are concentrated: a stronger dollar, US Treasury yields rising back above 5%, and increased expectations of a rate hike in December. According to multiple reports from November 14 to 15 referencing CME FedWatch, the probability of a 25 basis point hike in December is about 90%, and a 50 basis point hike about 10%, leaving almost no chance for no change. The spot $BTC ETF saw net outflows of $1.07 billion last week, exceeding $1 billion for the second consecutive week. On the 18th, there is also the $ANT issuance capped at about $64.35 billion waiting to be funded.
Gold and crypto falling together is different from the traditional safe-haven pattern where gold rises and risk assets fall; it’s more like the dollar and interest rates are pushing out non-yielding assets together.
Regarding Monday's US stock market open, this can only be taken as a reference. The relationship between weekend crypto prices and Monday's open is inherently unstable; sometimes it follows a low open, sometimes the opening is immediately rewritten by the bond market and the dollar. After the open, if bond yields and the dollar continue to rise, risk assets will suffer more; if these two pause first, a weekend crypto price drop does not necessarily mean a low open and further decline on Monday.
I've been thinking a lot recently
What level must a person reach to have no regrets?
Even the AI godfather, a great and pure man, couldn't escape political persecution; his lifetime savings were lost. If he had never risen, at worst he would have just stumbled a little.
But once a person rises, they have wealth and fame.
What would it be like to be brought down overnight?
Aren't we ordinary people the same? We've also had our glory, and suddenly in those glorious days, we are thrown into hell.
You feel lost and struggle, and in the end, either start over or reopen the rooftop. What does it truly mean for a human life to be successful?
I think no matter how you live or where you go, there will always be regrets. Regret accompanies a person throughout life and is an indispensable part of growth.
Finally, I want to say: Jensen, come back. $NVDA can't do without you! My account can't do without you either 😭 Please save my account, I beg you.
$NVDA earnings report next week
Jensen Huang resigns, will NVDA fall below 160? Will the earnings report push it back up to 180?
How exactly to avoid missing out or catching a falling knife? Young has made the following strategy for this situation on OKX
👇🏿
美股投资young
This week's $NVDA is like a chaotic weather forecast, what to do? young has a clever trick! Use young's strategy on OKX to carve out your own path in such a volatile market!
🌫 Fog
As soon as the midterm elections ended, the market started worrying about the Democrats tightening data center approvals.
On November 5, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped about 12% in one day, $NVDA fell about 9%.
What’s being crushed isn’t the immediate orders, but the AI expansion pace for the next few years.
⚡ Thunder
Reportedly, Jensen Huang admitted to being unfaithful to his wife, and the board has launched an independent investigation.
The espionage allegations are not confirmed yet, and he still holds the CEO position.
Oh, young is really unlucky, young didn’t cheat, so why is my account bleeding?
But as long as the investigation isn’t clear, this cloud will hang over the stock price.
🌧 Rain
After the US market closed on November 17, earnings were released.
Consensus expected revenue around $108.8 billion, EPS about 2.47.
At the end of October, it was still above 200, now it’s dropped near 178.
How heavy this rain will be depends on whether the guidance can blow away the previous two clouds.
Fog, thunder, and rain all squeezed into the same week.
Going out empty-handed will get you soaked, rushing in bare-chested is even more dangerous.
So this week I prepared three umbrellas on OKX 👇
☂️ Long-handled umbrella: Buy 185 call
Path: Options → Simple Options → xNVDA → Expiring 11/20
185 call, premium 6.67
Break-even 191.67
If it rises to 200 → more than $8 left per share
Stuck below 185 → 6.67 all lost
Betting on a decent rebound after earnings, maximum loss fixed at order time.
🌂 Folding umbrella: Hold xNVDA, then sell a 195 call
Switch to “Sell” on the same page, select 195 call, can collect 2.74 premium now.
Selling calls requires xNVDA as margin, so this is a “spot + options” two-legged position.
If it doesn’t exceed 195 at expiration → collect 2.74 steadily, lowering cost basis to 175.32.
If it breaks 195 → sell at 195, max profit about 19.68 per share, roughly 11%.
If it really falls → 2.74 cushions the fall first.
Suitable for those bullish on NVDA long-term but don’t believe one earnings report will push it back to 200.
🚶 No umbrella, wait for the rain to stop before going out: Stock perpetuals
Don’t touch before earnings.
Wait for guidance upgrades, next day’s open holds, volume follows.
Then open a small position with perpetuals, can exit anytime if wrong.
Among the three umbrellas, I like the folding umbrella best.
NVDA is originally a stock to hold long-term; during earnings week, instead of guessing direction, better to turn waiting time into premium.
If you really want to gamble, use the long-handled umbrella, max loss just over 6 bucks.
Tokenized US stocks, simple options, stock perpetuals—all switchable within the same OKX account.
Bullish or bearish, buy or sell, all done on one page.
When US stocks open at night, the whole operation can be completed inside a crypto account.
@misaENFP @star_okx @okx @okxchinese
#OKX达人 #交易TradFi就来OKX
Peter Schiff recently stated that if bitcoin:native falls below $50,000, it could quickly revisit the 2022 low, below $16,500. This is his judgment, echoed by multiple media outlets, and the market has not yet deviated from this path.
This Sunday, $BTC hovered around $65,400, with this year's low being $57,748 on July 1. The 200-week moving average is roughly at $68,000, and the price has already dropped below this line. From here to $50,000, it would need to fall about 23% more; to $16,500, it would be about a 75% further drop.
The risk should be acknowledged. The 200-week moving average has been breached, and spot ETFs have recently seen continuous outflows. If this year's low is broken again, $50,000 will become closer; if $50,000 breaks, selling pressure will significantly increase, making it harder for high-exposure companies like Strategy.
However, $16,500 is not necessarily the next stop. The 2022 low corresponded to another round of interest rate hikes and a different market structure, so it cannot be directly mapped over.
Schiff has been bearish for quite some time. From a trading perspective, these should be viewed separately: whether this year's low holds is the immediate concern; $50,000 is the next level down; $16,500 is a more distant tail scenario. One can acknowledge increasing risk without prematurely turning bearish for a distant target, and also not ignore the breached moving average just because the scenario seems exaggerated.
The more practical observation points now remain the $57,748 from July 1 and the already breached 200-week moving average. These two are much closer than $16,500 and better indicate whether selling pressure is out of control. No leverage, no guessing the end point, wait for signals.
