US July PPI year-on-year is 4.7%, although lower than the expected 4.9%, this figure in the crypto market feels more like a "less tense breath," not exactly a bullish reversal. Month-on-month is flat, indicating upstream price pressure hasn't continued to rise for now, and the market will naturally bet that rate cut expectations are no longer so distant. But looking at macro data now, I'm less eager to chase the first bullish candle. Often, the market trades on the expectation gap after data release, not the data itself. What really needs watching is: whether US Treasury yields are moving down, whether the dollar is weakening, and whether BTC can volume-wise hold key levels. The data is relatively mild, just giving risk assets a bit more breathing room. How to position still depends on the market trend $BTC

The issue with DOGE is not a lack of recognition; on the contrary, it might be one of the most well-known assets in the crypto space. Everyone knows it, every exchange lists it, and its liquidity has always been decent. Unlike those small coins that no one dares to buy when they rise and can't be sold when they fall, DOGE's biggest advantage is that it has never truly disappeared from the public eye. But precisely because of this, its awkwardness is obvious: everyone knows it, but for now, few are willing to pay upfront for "its next chapter." Bitcoin thrives on macro narratives and institutional capital; Ethereum thrives on its ecosystem and asset valuation; various new public chains, AI, RWA, stablecoins, and DeFi can at least tell a story about "where future growth will come from." What about DOGE? It's still the same DOGE: strong community, high recognition, and occasional emotional spikes when Musk mentions it, but these are more like its foundation rather than an engine for sustained growth. In previous bull markets, when liquidity was abundant, people would buy the main themes first, then secondary themes, and eventually even "doge avatars" could be bought out of belief. Back then, DOGE's logic was simple: it was popular enough, easy to understand, and meme-worthy enough for retail investors to rush in. But now it's different. Money isn't that easy to make, and people ask: where is the incremental capital? Why must new users buy it? Besides sentiment, what else can create sustained demand? One more easily overlooked point: DOGE, as a long-established large-cap meme, now requires a much larger amount of capital to rise than it did back in the day. It's no longer a small ticket that can "take off with a few multiples," but more like a well-liquidated old asset that needs strong consensus to be reignited. Without sufficient risk appetite, without a real wave of retail return, and without new major viral events, it can easily get stuck grinding at the bottom repeatedly $DOGE

BTC has been hovering around $62,000–$65,000 recently, with AI, US stocks, and gold taking turns drawing attention, leaving crypto somewhat sidelined. On-chain data shows a large amount of chips settled between $61,000 and $65,000, especially dense around $63,000. My understanding is: some who wanted to leave have done so, and more people willing to buy at this level are emerging; the market is reestablishing a consensus on cost. However, several factors suppressing the market are gradually easing: macro interest rate hike expectations are cooling down, Strategy's liquidity concerns are alleviating, and AI trading is also starting to cool off. The current market feels like a "no man's land": crypto participants fear further drops, while outside capital is waiting for clearer signals. But by the time everything is confirmed, the comfortable entry points are often gone. If you believe in BTC's long-term logic, observe this phase of low volatility, low attention, and continuous chip turnover closely. The bottom is never a single point but a prolonged, testing period. It may not be the bottom yet, but at least the market is undergoing some noteworthy changes $BTC Personal analysis record, not investment advice

Russia has finally put BTC, ETH, and USDT on the official tradable list. But don’t rush to interpret this as a full embrace of Crypto. Ordinary investors can only buy these three, with a maximum annual investment of 300,000 rubles through a single intermediary; professional investors face fewer restrictions, but everyone must pass a mandatory test before trading. The new regulations will take effect on September 1. I think this approach is very typical: it’s not about opening up altcoins or encouraging everyone to speculate on crypto, but rather about first circling the most liquid, mature market assets with the longest pricing history, giving ordinary people a "controlled entry." BTC is digital gold, ETH is on-chain infrastructure, and USDT is the most commonly used crypto dollar in the real world. Including these three actually shows that regulators understand where the real market demand lies. The 300,000 ruble limit isn’t high; it’s clearly not meant to let retail investors get rich overnight from high-volatility assets, but to isolate risk within a relatively bearable range. As for the mandatory test, it’s a preemptive boundary: you can participate, but not without knowing what you’re buying. For the market, what’s truly worth noting is that more and more countries are shifting from "whether crypto assets should exist" to "which assets can enter the regulatory system, how much ordinary people can buy, and who is responsible if risks occur." In the future, the crypto market may not become wilder but will increasingly resemble traditional finance: clearer thresholds, greater compliance importance, and mainstream assets first to benefit from policy advantages. Altcoin seasons will still rely on sentiment and liquidity, but regulation demands order. These two logics are probably hard to fully reconcile in the short term $BTC $ETH $USDT

Shocking! The same wallet was hacked again three years later, losing $25.6 million In 2023, it lost $24.23 million due to malicious token approvals, and the attacker later returned about 90% of the funds; this time, the assets were quickly converted into DAI and ETH, leaving almost no reaction time What chills me the most about this incident is not how powerful the hacker is, but that many people’s understanding of "wallet security" still stops at: as long as the private key is not leaked, it’s fine. In fact, the real risk for large assets often isn’t the private key, but what approvals you have signed, which DApps you have connected to, and to whom you have given unlimited permissions Self-custody indeed offers freedom, but the flip side of freedom is: there’s no customer service to help you revoke that one slip-up. On-chain, the most expensive thing is never Gas, but a signature you thought was "no big deal, just a confirmation" $ETH

Token Terminal data shows that currently about 34.4% of ETH is staked, reaching a historic high. Compared to the staking ratio of about 30% at the beginning of this year, it has increased by 4.4 percentage points in just a few months. This means that on one hand, more and more holders are choosing to lock their ETH on-chain to earn staking rewards, reducing the amount of freely circulating ETH in the market; on the other hand, the continuous rise in staking ratio also reflects some capital's recognition of Ethereum's long-term value and ecosystem returns. However, a higher staking ratio does not necessarily mean the price will rise. Going forward, attention should still be paid to ETH spot demand, institutional capital flows, on-chain activity, and potential phased supply changes caused by unstaking. What will you do with your ETH—hold it, stake it, or wait for a better trading opportunity $ETH

#今晚CPI公布，9月加息定价会改写吗？ BTC has recently been stuck between $62,000 and $66,000. ETF buying is still present, but miners and large holders haven't stopped selling, forcing the price into a straight line. Market implied volatility has been compressed to historically low levels, indicating everyone is waiting for a trigger. Tonight's US CPI is very likely that button. Many people find sideways trading the most frustrating because there's no sharp rise or complete crash; going long risks chasing a high, while shorting risks a sudden pump. But from another perspective, the market is actually redistributing chips. Short-term funds lack patience, long-term funds are observing; fewer people are betting everything on news, and the real direction is still decided by macro liquidity. I don't really believe a single CPI report can completely change BTC's long-term trend, but it can determine the short-term direction: If CPI is below expectations, the dollar and US Treasury yields will fall back, giving BTC a chance to test above $66,000; If CPI is hotter, the market will reprice tightening expectations, and whether the $62,000 support holds becomes critical; if it breaks, seeing $60,000 wouldn't be surprising. What's more noteworthy is that market funds now clearly prefer AI computing power, chips, and optical communications. Crypto hasn't disappeared; it's just temporarily out of the spotlight. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. Real big moves often don't start when the whole network is shouting a bull comeback, but when everyone wonders why the coin isn't moving yet, slowly grinding out the undecided chips. So these two days, instead of staring at the one-minute candlestick guessing ups and downs, it's better to watch two things: whether the $62,000 support is effective, and how the dollar and US Treasury yields move after the CPI release. Sideways trading isn't scary; the scariest thing is opening positions recklessly without direction $BTC

$BICO project direction is quite strong, focusing on account abstraction and multi-chain interaction, supporting gas fee payment on behalf, simplifying transactions, and lowering the usage threshold for DApps. It’s very popular, but the volatility is also high.

This week, the crypto market has shown three consecutive signals Strategy sold 1,690 BTC at below cost to repurchase preferred shares, TrumpMedia reported nearly $200 million loss due to crypto asset impairment and is downsizing, Grayscale withdrew its spot ETF applications for ADA, DOT, and HBAR Each news alone is notable, but together they clearly show the market is no longer willing to pay a high premium for the story that just buying coins will make them rise Previously, publicly listed companies buying BTC was a very effective flywheel: companies held coins and their stock price gained a premium, stock price rose allowing further financing, which was then used to buy more coins, and the rising coin price reinforced the narrative But when the market cools, this logic stalls, valuation premiums drop, financing becomes more expensive, preferred shares fall below par value, and companies must choose between continuing to accumulate or repairing their balance sheets Strategy has already indicated that so-called long-term holding has conditions; companies are not cold wallet entities and cannot rely solely on faith to survive cycles Grayscale’s move also shows institutions are not uninterested in altcoins but are redefining boundaries; assets beyond BTC and ETH need more than hype and an ETF application to enter traditional capital allocation pools Liquidity, compliance space, real demand, and long-term narrative — missing any one of these can put funds on the watchlist So now, don’t just focus on when BTC will rebound; pay more attention to who is selling and who is buying, and whether the buyers are short-term funds or long-term holders Every major liquidation is painful but also clears out the most fragile stories from the previous cycle. This time, the market is clearing not only leverage and shitcoins but also the illusion that anything dressed in institutional clothing is naturally worth a high valuation $ETH $BTC

After the July non-farm payroll data was released, the market started to get conflicted again US non-farm payrolls in July decreased by 23,000, while the market originally expected an increase of 85,000, missing by 108,000; June data was also revised down by 37,000. The cooling of the job market is no longer a small signal For BTC, this has two sides. On one hand, after the data worsened, the market's expectation for the Fed to continue raising rates in September clearly dropped from about 70% to 40%. With easing rate hike expectations, the pressure on risk assets naturally lessens, and the crypto space will treat this as a somewhat positive signal But on the other hand, if employment continues to decline, the issue is not just about one less rate hike, but whether the economy will truly head into a recession. Recently, gold broke through $4,400, and funds moving early into safe-haven assets also indicate the market is uneasy So BTC is now walking a tightrope: Easing rate hike expectations provide support, but recession fears may suppress risk appetite Short-term sentiment might first benefit from the drop in rate hike expectations, but if economic data continues to worsen, the market will likely have to recalculate the situation again $BTC