匿光｜Arcana
匿光｜Arcana
5年加密货币交易经验，长期持有OKB BTC，单币A7持有者，meme黑马猎手，区块链上信息搜寻者，对该行业长期看好，未来依旧是普通人最好的翻身机会。
730Following
1.4Kfollowers
Feed
Livestream
Feed
$BTC altcoins have essentially gone to zero in the true sense. Calculating it shows they have almost disappeared:
The total crypto market cap has evaporated by about $800 billion since early October, with market liquidity under pressure.
The key total market cap is at $2.1 trillion; subtracting Bitcoin's $1.3 trillion, stablecoins' $300 billion, Ethereum's $220 billion, BNB's $78 billion, XRP's $61 billion, SOL's $42 billion, TRX's $29 billion, HYPE's $16 billion, ZEC's $15 billion, XMR's $9.3 billion, and Dogecoin's $9.2 billion.
The top ten coins combined are roughly $2 trillion.
All other altcoins combined have a remaining market cap of $100 billion.
If it falls further, excluding stablecoins and the top ten coins, and considering pegged gold stocks and others, the remaining value of the altcoin market will be on the scale of coins like BNB or XRP.
Basically, in the true sense, they have gone to zero; whether by decline or total market cap, they have effectively reached zero. #英伟达冲击千亿美元季度营收纪录
Someone just asked me if BTC would fall below 6 and see 5.
You see, the market is like this: when BTC breaks above 8, people look to see if it can reach 9, or 10.
When it was above 80,000, I said we could still see prices starting with 6, but they didn't believe it.
Now it has fallen below 7, already down to 68,000, and people think it will break below 6.
So, can it really fall below 6?
I think in extreme cases, we might see a wick starting with 5, but this drop probably won't last long, because looking at historical cycles, the end of this year and the beginning of next year is the start of a bull market.
You might say I'm being stubborn, but last year when everyone said the 4-year cycle was gone and that a long bull market was coming, including CZ himself saying so, what happened? The fact is, it's still following the cycle.
So, for spot traders, don't worry about the price, just buy on dips and keep lowering your average cost. For contracts, if you don't do short-term trades, just lightly buy on dips and hold.
In summary, the bear market won't last long; after a long drop, there will be a rise, and after a fast rise, there will be a fall. #英伟达冲击千亿美元季度营收纪录
October CPI exceeded expectations, and the market has basically accepted that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, with a 25 basis point hike being highly likely, and some even betting on 50 basis points. As interest rates rise, the dollar strengthens, and risk assets suffer. On top of that, Nvidia's Jensen Huang was involved in a scandal, causing the stock price to drop 8% after hours, and the Nasdaq also pulled back. Highly elastic assets like Bitcoin were directly treated as an ATM.
Technically, it is also weak. It has already fallen below the short-term holders' cost, with many long positions around 70,000. Further drops could trigger liquidations. Some analysts say if it breaks 73,000 again, it might head down to 68,000 or even lower.
However, it's not all bleak. Some medium-sized wallets have been quietly accumulating recently, and retail sentiment is particularly pessimistic. Sometimes, the more panic there is, the easier a rebound becomes.
Overall, liquidity tightening and macro pressure are hitting simultaneously. Don't rush to bottom-fish in the short term; first, see if it can stabilize around 70,000, and wait for ETF funds to flow back or for rate hike expectations to cool down. The market is volatile, so managing position size is most important. #英伟达冲击千亿美元季度营收纪录
$CFX Let's talk about one of the most misleading narratives for retail investors regarding CFX: "Domestic official chain, Belt and Road alliance chain." First, the core conclusion: this statement is incorrect. The operating entity of Conflux (CFX) is a Singapore-based non-profit foundation, which is a permissionless public chain; the Shanghai Shutu Blockchain Research Institute is a domestic research institution, and the two are legally independent. The institute undertakes domestic research projects, while the foundation is responsible for the overseas ecosystem related to this public chain and its token. They should not be conflated, nor does this equal official domestic endorsement of the token. Many retail investors get stuck on this information gap, naturally adding a "domestic background" filter to CFX and holding very high expectations. But returning to market fundamentals: recently, CFX trading volume has been continuously shrinking, liquidity is worsening, there are very few blockbuster applications in the ecosystem, and on-chain real activity is insufficient. The value of a public chain token ultimately depends on ecosystem implementation, real users, and sustained liquidity, not on a vague narrative. No matter how good the narrative is, if the ecosystem lags and liquidity dries up, the risks will continue to amplify. #英伟达冲击千亿美元季度营收纪录
The most frustrating thing about the current market is how it crazily confuses you, making it hard for both bulls and bears to profit. Just like before, it seems like a big surge is coming, but the crash happens in an instant. Now it's the exact opposite; the market looks like a stagnant pool, making people feel a crash is imminent and panic sell, but in reality, a big bullish candle might suddenly appear, leaving no chance to get in. I actually like this back-and-forth harvesting style. This time will most likely be the same: the rise will be very rapid, then continue with sideways consolidation and pullback #软银重金押注OpenAI，Q2财报能否交出亮眼成绩？
A feeling of déjà vu, this situation has been experienced too many times. Endless volatile declines, boring market, no vitality at all, making people lose the desire to even check the market. That’s about as low as it gets. In other words, how much more can the leader fall? Compared to the future rise, the cost-performance ratio is already high enough now. Hold on, don’t mess around, and after some time, looking back, you’ll realize those were all opportunities, just that you were afraid!
When the whole square was shouting that the bull market was coming, I thought it was not yet the bear bottom and kept shorting.
Now I think the bear bottom is coming soon, maybe this month (I think there will be one more drop), possibly a sideways movement for one or two months (or maybe shorter), then a new bull market will start.
The above view does not include $ZEC, which is a highly controlled coin. When the market falls, it may even rise; when the bull market comes, it might instead keep declining gradually.
The Republican Party's loss in the midterm elections has thrown cold water on Trump's vision of building a cryptocurrency capital. The reality is:
1. The Clear Act is likely to be shelved for more than two years. No Democrat supported the bill in September. Now Democrats hold more leverage, and regulatory clarity is likely to be deadlocked.
2. Any new pro-cryptocurrency legislation requires bipartisan support. Given Democrats' opposition tendencies toward cryptocurrency, this is no easy feat. Don't expect an easy win.
3. Democrats may push for stricter restrictions on exchanges, stablecoins, and digital assets. They are already seeking to expand the regulatory scope of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) while weakening the authority of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). More gatekeeping, less innovation.
4. Without clear regulatory rules, institutional investors—banks, pension funds, and traditional financial institutions—will remain cautious or even stay completely out. Uncertainty will stifle capital deployment.
This will not kill the adoption of cryptocurrency but may accelerate the flow of capital and talent overseas. Developers may choose jurisdictions with clearer rules and less political resistance. As other countries open their doors to the crypto industry, the U.S. may lose its competitive edge. #ModernaQ3财报将揭示疫苗销售趋势
The previous cycle never really had an altcoin season—ISM PMI told you why. It never entered the expansion zone. That’s the macro backdrop that stifled altcoins.
What about this time? The situation is different. ISM has been rising for several consecutive months, showing a trend similar to what we saw in 2016 and 2020. Both of those rallies led to 100x gains across the entire altcoin market.
I’ve been through enough cycles to know that once the macro trend turns, altcoins follow. ISM expansion = risk appetite recovery = capital rotation into small-cap assets. The overall picture is gradually becoming clearer.
Signals and ideal entry points still need confirmation, but the macro tailwind is definitely there. If ISM continues this trend, we could see another intense altcoin season. Stay disciplined, watch key price levels, but don’t ignore the message the data is sending. #索尼财报前瞻：游戏与音乐业务表现如何？
