彪哥_
彪哥_
100U → 1000U ♻️ 交易就是循环复利，赚了继续滚，亏了重新来。 这里记录真实交易、行情判断和复盘。 欧易官方个人社区已开启👇 一起聊行情，一起找机会，一起循环复利。
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$BTC dropped to 64,000, and I started considering scaling in, but this time I really don’t plan to rush.
The recent decline has been a continuous drop from 87,239, and in today’s screenshot, it has already reached 64,250, with a low of 63,272. The price has clearly fallen below the lower band.
Honestly, seeing this kind of market, a thought definitely pops up: Has it already dropped enough?
But I don’t want to assume the bottom has come just because the drop is large.
The recent market pressure didn’t appear out of nowhere. US inflation data was hotter than expected, the US dollar index strengthened, and the market started betting on the Fed continuing to raise rates in December; spot BTC ETFs have had net outflows for 7 consecutive trading days, totaling nearly $1.9 billion. On top of that, the Middle East situation is volatile, tech stocks are fluctuating, and risk appetite is clearly declining.
That’s why I’m preparing to scale in, not go all in at once.
My approach is:
The first position is just a small stake to test the waters, not rushing to use all my ammo.
If there is effective support around 63,272 and the price can hold steady, then I’ll consider further positioning; if the rebound can’t even repair the basic structure, I’ll keep waiting.
Conversely, if 63,272 is effectively broken downward, I will reassess and won’t keep averaging down endlessly just to lower my cost.
What I’m thinking now isn’t about buying at the absolute bottom, but rather trying not to hand over all my positions while the downtrend hasn’t ended.
I used to think the most important thing about bottom fishing was courage, but now I increasingly feel the real key is to leave room for maneuver.
$BTC has dropped to around 68,000, and the last thing I want to do right now is rush to catch the bottom.
These past few days, I've been watching it steadily go down.
It broke below 70,000 earlier, and many thought it was about done, but the rebound didn’t go far before it started grinding down again. This morning, BTC was around 68,150, with a low hitting 67,819.
The price is still below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. Although it just bounced a bit from 67,810, honestly, this small rebound isn’t enough to convince me the market has stabilized.
What concerns me more now is: why are all the rebounds so short?
The news isn’t easy either. The US dollar index remains high, US inflation data is hot, and the market is starting to bet again that the Fed might tighten policy further; the US tech sector is under pressure, and risk capital is withdrawing from the crypto market.
Additionally, the spot BTC ETF has seen net outflows for several consecutive trading days, and in the past 24 hours, over $1.3 billion in leveraged positions have been liquidated in the crypto market, forcing longs out and further amplifying the decline.
This is also why I’m not rushing to catch the falling knife now.
Moving forward, I’m mainly watching three levels:
67,819: the recent low, can it hold? 67,764: if broken, be cautious and expect further probing lower. 68,525: the Bollinger middle band; only if it climbs back above this can we consider a short-term recovery.
I’m not afraid of missing a rebound; I’m afraid of mistaking every small green candle as a reversal during a downtrend.
Right now, BTC doesn’t lack bottom-fishers, but buyers who can keep entering the market consistently.
$BTC has fallen below 72000, and at this level, I'm actually hesitant to buy the dip.
This morning when I opened OKX and looked at the 4-hour chart, it was still a bit glaring.
It has dropped all the way down from around 81199, now reaching 71472, with a low of 71200. The previous rebounds failed to reverse the downtrend structure, with each high lower than the last.
The price is now even below the lower Bollinger Band.
Many people might think at this point: it has dropped so much, it should rebound, right?
But what I am most cautious about now is this kind of thinking.
Oversold does not mean the bottom is immediately reached. In a weak market, the price can continue along the lower Bollinger Band, and the real trouble is after bottom-fishing, the market hits you with a big bearish candle.
The news also hasn't given the market much breathing room.
The US October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.3%, clearly heating up expectations for a Fed rate hike in December. Meanwhile, spot BTC ETF funds continue to flow out, and institutional buying has not yet provided strong enough support.
Another detail worth noting: recently market liquidity has thinned, but leveraged positions have not significantly decreased. Under this combination, once concentrated selling occurs, prices can be quickly broken down.
My thought is simple: don't try to guess the bottom first; wait for the market to give a signal. Even if a rebound comes, don't rush to chase it; at least see if there is sustained buying support.
Trading doesn't mean catching every dip. Doing one less trade might be more profitable than making a wrong one.
$BTC played out again: how it was pulled up is how it falls back down.
Yesterday it rebounded all the way from around 73355, reaching a high of 74789. Many people just thought the market was recovering, but then it turned around with a series of big bearish candles.
Now BTC is back near 73657.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, the Bollinger middle band is at 74373, the upper band at 74864, and the lower band at 73882. The price has already fallen back below the lower Bollinger band; that recent rebound was basically swallowed up, and the volume increased during the decline.
Honestly, the last thing I want to do in this market is to rush to go long just because I see a bullish candle.
My thinking is very clear:
In a weak market, rebounds are primarily a signal to reduce positions and lower risk, not to rush in.
Unless the price climbs back above 74370 and holds steady, I won’t easily treat this rebound as a trend reversal.
Downside first looks at whether the low at 73355 can hold. If it breaks again, the market will likely need to find further support.
The worst thing in trading is to get scared out by a drop, then chase the rebound impulsively, ending up getting hit from both sides.
I’d rather earn less than join the party prematurely without confirmation of direction.
Brothers, what do you think now? Is this rebound over, or will the main force pull it up again? If you have long positions, will you reduce them on the rebound or keep waiting?
As soon as the CPI was released, $BTC gave the market another lesson: never rush to guess the direction!
Last night's volatility was really intense.
The US October CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month, higher than the market expectation of 0.3%; core CPI rose 0.3%, also above the expected 0.2%.
Once the data came out, the dollar and US Treasury yields rose, market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December intensified, and risk assets immediately came under pressure.
BTC couldn't hold up either, dropping to a low of 72688 on the 15-minute chart, then quickly pulling back to around 74823, and now hovering around 73535.
I took a look at the chart:
Bollinger middle band at 73616, upper band at 74014, lower band at 73219. The price just pulled up from the low and then returned below the middle band, indicating ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears.
Next, I’m focusing on three key levels:
72688: short-term low, must not be easily broken.
73616: middle band level, whether it can hold above is critical.
74000–74800: resistance zone that the rebound needs to face.
The biggest mistake at this time is to bottom-fish after a sharp drop or chase longs after a sharp rally.
I’d rather wait for confirmation from the chart than get chopped up in a data-driven market.
$XAU has climbed back above 4100, while $BTC is still struggling around 75000. Has the market's choice become clear?
Gold XAU has finally seen a decent rebound, climbing back above 4150. Looking at BTC, the current price is around 75500, having dropped significantly from the previous high of 81199, with a recent low dipping to 73385. After the low of 73385, there was indeed some capital support. But don't rush to call a reversal.
Right now, BTC looks more like it's undergoing a recovery after a sharp drop. The 75450–76000 range is a resistance zone to watch closely. If it can't hold above this, the rebound could quickly turn into another decline; if it can break through with volume, there’s a chance for further recovery.
Now, about gold.
There are several clues behind this XAU rebound worth noting:
First, uncertainty remains in the Middle East situation. The security of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in Iran-related negotiations could cause the market to reprice geopolitical risks.
Second, after the US midterm elections, changes in the congressional power structure have led the market to reassess fiscal spending, US policy toward Iran, and subsequent regulatory directions.
Third, the recent decline in the US dollar and Treasury yields has provided support for non-yielding assets like gold.
So my current understanding is:
Gold’s rebound is driven by a combination of safe-haven sentiment, and expectations around the dollar and interest rates; BTC’s weakness is still influenced by ETF capital outflows, leverage liquidations, and a decline in market risk appetite.
This doesn’t mean gold will definitely continue to rise, nor does it mean BTC has no chance.
Just now, how many people's stop losses and leverage positions were wiped out together?
This morning while watching the market, I saw $BTC $ETH suddenly drop sharply with a big bearish candle, hitting a low of 73385 directly.
Before the market could even catch its breath, the price quickly pulled back above 75500. The most tormenting part of this move is not the drop itself, but that you simply don't have time to react.
Looking at the 15-minute chart, this plunge was accompanied by a clear surge in volume, followed by consecutive bullish rebound candles. The current price is around 75541, back above the Bollinger middle band at 75397.
The news side is also unsettled.
According to the latest Reuters report, the crypto market fell to a more than two-month low on Sunday, with BTC once dropping near $73708. Regulatory uncertainty after the US midterm elections and Binance's previous roughly $6 billion security incident continue to affect market confidence.
I am now more inclined to view this sharp drop as a quick rebound after a concentrated release of selling pressure, but one thing must be made clear: a single candlestick cannot determine whether it is big money bottom-fishing or a combination of short sellers taking profits and low-level buying pushing the price.
So I won’t call a reversal just because of this big bullish candle.
What’s really worth watching is: after the rebound, can the price hold steady in the 75300–75500 range, and can the volume continue to keep up?
If it’s just a momentary pullback and then falls below the middle band again, this rebound might just be a breather in the downtrend; if it can hold and continue to reclaim 76160, then market sentiment has a chance to truly recover.
Taking a look at OKEx market this morning, there's an interesting detail.
$BTC is hovering around 75716, barely moving, and $ETH is also lingering near 2234. At first glance, the market seems to have stabilized.
But looking further:
$OKB dropped 0.89%, SOL fell 0.15%, DOGE declined 0.31%, BCH plunged 3.19%, and XRP barely managed to stay positive.
This indicates one thing: BTC holding steady for now doesn't mean the selling pressure across the entire market has ended.
Looking at recent news:
The US spot BTC ETF saw significant outflows on November 6, with a single-day net outflow of over $500 million from crypto ETFs, and a total outflow exceeding $1.1 billion this week. Meanwhile, US employment data beat expectations, tech stocks in the US market faced sell-offs again, and the pressure on risk assets hasn't disappeared.
An important upcoming date is November 10, when the US will release October CPI data.
If inflation remains hot, market expectations for a Fed rate cut might be affected again; if the data eases, risk assets might get a breather.
So now I'm focusing more on three things:
1. Whether BTC can firmly hold key levels again, rather than just oscillating around 76000.
2. Whether ETF outflows have noticeably narrowed.
3. Whether ETH and major altcoins can keep pace with BTC, instead of each moving independently.
I'm increasingly convinced that the market today can't just focus on BTC's single candlestick.
$BTC This wave really feels like a bucket of cold water poured down.
After closing my long positions near 80400 earlier, I didn’t rush to chase back. Looking back now, that decision at least helped me avoid the sharp drop that followed.
It smashed down from around 81199, hitting a low of 74800. After consecutive large bearish candles, although there was some small rebound, it hasn’t yet reclaimed the middle Bollinger band. We can’t assume the market is stable just because of a few small bullish candles for now.
This decline isn’t just about issues within the crypto space itself.
After the US midterm elections, BTC once surged to 81000, but then $SPY and the semiconductor sector suddenly took a heavy hit, and $QQQ also dropped sharply. Risk capital started to retreat, dragging BTC down with it. What’s worse, leveraged long positions were heavily liquidated, with over $1 billion cleared across the market in 24 hours, mostly longs.
In short, the brief optimism brought by the elections was quickly crushed by the market’s risk aversion.
I’m not rushing to guess the bottom now; I’m focusing on three key levels:
74800: The low point of this drop, whether it can hold is critical.
73886: The 4-hour Bollinger lower band; if it breaks further down, the correction might not be over.
77677: The Bollinger middle band; only if it reclaims this level can we say there’s some short-term recovery.
No need to give back the profits I’ve made just to prove I was right.
A market drop isn’t scary; what’s scary is reaching out to catch every fall. Opportunities will always come; first, stabilize the rhythm.
Yesterday, I closed my $BTC long position around 80400, and now it really feels like I dodged a bullet.
At that time, the price rebounded from above 76000 all the way to above 81000. The market looked quite strong, and many people were waiting for it to continue surging. But the market turned around faster than flipping a page in a book, with a big bearish candle smashing the price back down to around 76000.
I don't have much to brag about; being able to exit around 80400 yesterday at least allowed me to pocket the profits I had made. After trading for so long, I increasingly feel that how much you can earn is one thing, but whether you can take the money away is another.
This drop is not just a simple technical correction.
After the US midterm elections, with the Democrats taking both houses of Congress, the market began to reassess crypto regulation and AI industry policies; then the US tech stocks faced sell-offs, the AI sector cooled down, and risk assets came under pressure. On top of that, the previous Binance security incident impacted the market, and over the past 24 hours, more than $1 billion worth of crypto derivatives positions were liquidated, delivering another heavy blow to the bulls.
Right now, I'm actually not in a hurry to enter the market.
We need to see if the support around 75500 can hold, and then look at the support near 74780. Only if the price can climb back above 78000 should we reconsider the strength of the rebound; if it continues to break down with volume, there might be more turmoil ahead.
Exiting yesterday doesn't mean I'm completely bearish; today's drop doesn't mean it's immediately a bottom-buying opportunity.
The market offers opportunities every day; there's no need to participate in every single move.
Is this a shakeout of high leverage before a new buildup, or is the rebound over and the real second bottom just beginning?
+19.32
+539.57%Snapshot at Nov 06, 2026, 05:38
