陈桂林谈交易
陈桂林谈交易
X账号名称：陈桂林
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Why is no one calling me a Binance dog?
Look! Damn it, this damn thing is exactly what you call a damn reputation!
A quick reminder:
1. I've always followed one trading principle personally: not to cut losses during a downtrend. I stuck to it, and the 12th, 13th, and 14th candlesticks really hurt, but I believe I was not wrong;
However, I also said that as long as there is some rationality in the market and it's not an extreme black swan event, there will be ups and downs.
2. For a drop of this magnitude, even if there is going to be a rise or rebound, it will take time.
After all this turmoil, I think discussing bull or bear markets is meaningless. In the visible short-term future (1-2 months), it should still be a difficult trading environment. How to play it depends on personal choice!
3. I will wait for at least a rebound of equal scale to the drop, or a failed C wave, before making large position operations.
陈桂林谈交易
At first, I saw some foreigners saying this drop was deliberately caused by Binance, that Binance has been clearing long liquidity and then buying spot, or something like that; these past two days, I also saw Chinese Twitter starting to spread this.
Honestly, I’ve scolded Binance quite a bit before. If you say Binance just took advantage of the weekend to poke the market and clear contract liquidity, I’d believe that, since exchanges have done that in earlier years;
but this damn drop is obviously a spot market stampede, okay? Do longs still have any liquidity left? Are the main sellers invisible to the Americans? COINBASE has been at a negative premium, ETFs have had net outflows.
Reason? What reason? There’s no damn reason. It’s just because everything dropped—US stocks dropped, Nasdaq dropped, gold dropped, so why wouldn’t crypto drop?
I want to blame Binance too, but can Binance pay me my money? With this logic, besides being stupid, bad, and a huge baby, what else is there? Other than harvesting some traffic, is there any other benefit?
Now I just want to blame myself—I'm bad, fooled by the fake strength of Bitcoin, bad. After the 81,000 level was engulfed, I didn’t move, but since it already happened, what can I do?
I think reflecting on my own operations is more beneficial than pushing responsibility onto unrelated people.
Fortunately, this time I’m just bad, not stupid, didn’t play contracts, didn’t add leverage against the trend; so I’m not completely dead, just have to endure.
@cz_binance @heyibinance You two tell me, did you really not do anything bad?
Every time I let my guard down and fail to follow discipline, the market drives me crazy.
This time, I think my only operational mistake was using the flexible position to hold ETHU at 2380, making the flexible position no longer flexible, and then getting myself too excited during the decline.
Fortunately, the silent kill finally showed some light, and the rebound means the market hasn't reached an extreme black swan state yet; there is still rationality. As long as the market is rational, there's nothing to fear—there will be ups and downs.
Reviewing E, it first fell into the February-May range, then rebounded to the upper edge of the range, but didn't break out, and then directly dropped to the bottom of the range;
As for BTC, it directly hit the lower edge of this year's July-August consolidation range. If this is a shakeout, then it can be said that everything has been thoroughly shaken out, including myself.
At present, it can at least be seen as: the second phase of BTC's decline starting from 81131 is hopefully ending, with the midpoint of the rebound at 0.5 being 71534.
Whether it was the previous rise or this decline, one observable phenomenon is that the 67,000 to 77,000 range is a vacuum zone, with no support or resistance when moving up or down; the market in the coming period is likely a monkey market, and we will see if chip exchange can occur within this range.
At first, I saw some foreigners saying this drop was deliberately caused by Binance, that Binance has been clearing long liquidity and then buying spot, or something like that; these past two days, I also saw Chinese Twitter starting to spread this.
Honestly, I’ve scolded Binance quite a bit before. If you say Binance just took advantage of the weekend to poke the market and clear contract liquidity, I’d believe that, since exchanges have done that in earlier years;
but this damn drop is obviously a spot market stampede, okay? Do longs still have any liquidity left? Are the main sellers invisible to the Americans? COINBASE has been at a negative premium, ETFs have had net outflows.
Reason? What reason? There’s no damn reason. It’s just because everything dropped—US stocks dropped, Nasdaq dropped, gold dropped, so why wouldn’t crypto drop?
I want to blame Binance too, but can Binance pay me my money? With this logic, besides being stupid, bad, and a huge baby, what else is there? Other than harvesting some traffic, is there any other benefit?
Now I just want to blame myself—I'm bad, fooled by the fake strength of Bitcoin, bad. After the 81,000 level was engulfed, I didn’t move, but since it already happened, what can I do?
I think reflecting on my own operations is more beneficial than pushing responsibility onto unrelated people.
Fortunately, this time I’m just bad, not stupid, didn’t play contracts, didn’t add leverage against the trend; so I’m not completely dead, just have to endure.
@cz_binance @heyibinance You two tell me, did you really not do anything bad?
1. At first, it looked like those who missed the boat couldn't get on the train;
2. Then it dropped to the point where no one dared to get on, which means this market phase is not only a long difficult period for the short cycle, but even the mid-level cycle is this tough;
3. If this position can't hold, I really don't know what to say. I can only say I have to pay the price for my own understanding and trading system. It's purely a game I can't win, no tricks at all;
4. Honestly, when I had a large position in CRCL at a cost of 80 and it dropped to a low of 57, I didn't feel as bad as this time.
Many of my friends around me are more or less stuck or have experienced pullbacks; some in crypto, some in US stocks;
The bullish KOLs I follow have also gradually surrendered;
Right now, I just want to say to the market: Bro, I was wrong, just give me a chance to withdraw my tactical position, and I'll accept the rest as a loss!
I've been humble enough this round, no talk of a bull comeback, no champagne at halftime, no showing off trades—so why is it still like this?
To summarize a feeling:
Since 2026, the biggest impression the crypto market has given me is that it drags the pace; a market that drags the pace often requires more patience.
Thoughts: Will this pace continue going forward? Will the pace change? The market is in different cycles, and the pace often changes accordingly. What about the impact of the external environment?
