阿K的加密笔记

阿K的加密笔记

普通加密投资者,不装专家,也没有内幕。 这里是我的学习笔记,记录市场线索、交易思考与判断对错,希望认识认真研究市场的朋友,一起交流复盘。

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阿K的加密笔记
阿K的加密笔记
Zakk reveals again: "Ecological project, very soon," what will OKB迎来?
From capturing the unusual movements of X Layer on August 2 and issuing a warning, to sharing again on August 6 the almost explicit preview by X Layer's head, Zakk, I have not updated the related OKX developments item by item since then. It's not because there has been no progress in these days; on the contrary, it's because there has been too much progress. Since the person in charge has already laid out what is to be done next openly, what we need to do more is not to analyze each small daily progress separately, but to take this "schedule" and observe whether they are gradually fulfilling it according to plan. Looking at each piece of information alone is not enough to support a full share; looking at them together, the logic gradually becomes clear. Until today, I found that Zakk publicly stated again: "Ecosystem projects, very soon." I think it is necessary to reorganize what has happened from August 6 to now, also to provide some additional basis for judgment for those still following OKB. First, let's review Zakk's performance after releasing signals previously: The first time, he commented under a related post: "A gift to X Layer, a few days later, Exchange OS was officially announced, and OKB subsequently entered a round of about 20% increase." The second time, on August 6, he directly previewed that mid-August would gradually see: TVL, RWA, DeFi, MEME. At that time, OKB was around $85, and later rose to a high of $104–105, a range increase of about 22%–23%. Of course, I am not saying that OKB's rise was entirely driven by Zakk's few words. What I want to express is
阿K的加密笔记
阿K的加密笔记
我对OKB,对X Layer负责人的判断,含金量高不高。啊哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈哈(小韭菜也在进步啊)$OKB #X Layer
阿K的加密笔记
阿K的加密笔记
最早在7月12日,我就分享过CRCL。 7月30日,市场集中FUD CRCL时,我又提醒了一次,并分享了自己的观点:看待行业发展,需要把时间拉长。投资一家公司,也应该选择自己真正看得懂的公司。 当时CRCL大约在62—64美元之间。如今已经重新站上70美元,按当时的价格区间计算,涨幅约为11%—15%。 当然,上涨并不代表我的判断已经被完全验证,更不代表它接下来只会涨不会跌。 对我来说,这次上涨最重要的意义,不是证明自己又判断对了一次,而是再次提醒自己:当市场充满FUD时,真正需要判断的不是情绪有多差,而是公司的长期逻辑有没有发生变化。能看懂,才有可能拿得住,看不懂,再便宜也可能只是在赌。也替当时愿意独立思考、耐心等待的人感到高兴。 $CRCL $XCRCL ———————— 分享是为了进步,交流是为了修正认知。期待不同观点。
阿K的加密笔记
阿K的加密笔记
【行情讨论】 BTC从8.1-8.9,连续9连涨 8月3日-8月7日,BTC ETF流入8.65亿美元资金。 要说BTC不强吧,连续9连涨 你要说BTC强吧,ETF流入了8.6亿都只让BTC涨三五个点。 而在8月10日ETF由连续净流入转为净流出 1.446亿美元后,BTC日线下跌约 1.43% BTC这是想干什么呢?$BTC ———————— 分享是为了进步,交流是为了修正认知。期待不同观点。
阿K的加密笔记
阿K的加密笔记
In-depth analysis of the LTC old coin that has been sideways for 6 years
My judgment on the next round of altcoins mainly includes two points: 1. Backed by ETFs, able to attract institutional funds, providing a channel for traditional capital to enter; 2. Grounded in real applications, capable of continuous self-sustaining growth, generating stable cash flow. Projects that meet either of these criteria are worth paying attention to; if both are met, the certainty is naturally higher. However, it should be noted here: ETFs only provide a channel for institutional funds to enter, which does not necessarily mean traditional capital will support the price floor. Whether there is an ETF is one thing, but whether funds are willing to buy is another. Based on this judgment, I want to analyze LTC. The reason is simple: to see if this long-dormant old project still has the potential to explode in the next cycle. For this purpose, I will not elaborate on the basic project information here, but only share some thoughts from different dimensions, hoping to discuss with you who are browsing this. Note: When I say "explode," I mean a true revaluation: at least a 3x increase in one market cycle, with an optimistic scenario of 5x. As for 10x, given LTC's current market cap and position, I would not consider it a baseline expectation. ———————————— Sharing is for progress, communication is for correcting cognition. Looking forward to different viewpoints. ———————————— The current market positioning of LTC: LTC is a historically long-standing, highly liquid, fixed supply, low-fee PoW payment asset with optional privacy features. Its greatest strengths are durability and infrastructure coverage, while its biggest weakness is the lack of irreplaceability
阿K的加密笔记
阿K的加密笔记
"I may not understand OKB the best, but I should be among the group watching it most closely"
4 days ago, I caught a bullish signal about X Layer × USDG Earn that the market was barely discussing and shared it. That was also my first article to surpass 10,000 views. Yesterday, I noticed the head of X Layer released a clear bullish signal and posted a reminder. Today, OKB rose by 4 points. This doesn't necessarily prove that today's rise was driven by this news, but at least it counts as having caught the bullish signal ahead of this rally. This is the benefit of closely watching industry trends and seeking opportunities every day. Deep love brings strict responsibility. When I see strategies that might be unfavorable to OKB, I feel concerned; when I see bullish signals the market hasn't discussed yet, I try to catch them as soon as possible. I may not be the most knowledgeable OKB supporter on the entire web, but I should be among those who watch it closely. So, based on the current information, here is some speculative discussion about what might happen next. Two overlapping time points: 1. X Layer head Zakk said: "Disappearing for two weeks was to confirm all the designs to drive the X Layer ecosystem's momentum. Everything is now ready. A series of actions for the X Layer ecosystem will be launched one by one starting mid-August: TVL, RWA, DeFi, MEME." 2. According to the information disclosed so far, OKX Outcomes Phase 2 will focus on the five major European football leagues, also starting in mid-August. I don't think this is just a simple coincidence in timing. Combined with Zakk's tweet, August
阿K的加密笔记
阿K的加密笔记
我这提醒可真及时$OKB
阿K的加密笔记
阿K的加密笔记
《Zakk再次释放信号,OKB八月中旬会暴涨吗?》 今天不写长篇分析,只记录一个我刚刚看到的积极信号。 上一次,我看到Zakk在评论区留言,说要送X Layer一份“礼物”。第二天,OKX便宣布推出Exchange OS,OKB随后涨了约20%。 这一次,他给出的信号更加明确(八月中旬起,推动X Layer生态发展的一系列举措将逐一推出:TVL、RWA、DeFi、MEME。) 在我看来,这句话至少说明,X Layer接下来不只是停留在长期规划中,而是即将进入连续落地阶段。 当然,这些举措最终能落地到什么程度,能否真正带来资金、用户和链上活跃,以及能对OKB形成多少价值捕获,都还需要继续观察。 但对一直关注X Layer和OKB的我来说,这无疑是一个积极信号。我不是在说服你买入。 而是对于我们关注OKB的人来说,既然方向和时间已经给出来了,那耐心等待,看看这些牌接下来会如何一张张落地。$OKB
阿K的加密笔记
阿K的加密笔记
《OKB质押收益只有2.6%,真不怕消耗支持者信心吗?》 1、ElizaOS创始人:ai16z代币已「彻底死亡」,相关基金会正逐步结束运营 我的理解:ai16z作为上一轮AI Agent中的明星项目,在这行业已经是属于生态龙头,结果到头来支持的项目还是走向归零,到最后受伤的只是我们小散户。 所以我经常讲的,以往的思维不适用现在。不管是特朗普媒体还是ai16z,不代表他们比我们高明多少,更不代表他们会为小散户兜底。我们应该对他们祛魅。 下一轮,我只想重点关注两类项目: 1、能够持续造血、产生稳定现金流的项目; 2、有ETF或明确机构资金承接的项目; 如果一个项目只有故事和机构背书,最多短期参与,绝不能再死拿。放慢脚步,少相信故事,更不要迷信机构。 2、OKX闪赚Lite上线RE「质押赚币」,质押OKB收益率只有2.6%,质押200枚收益0.85枚; 我的疑问:平台这是在干什么呢????这么低的收益率这不纯膈应人吗? 实际上,持有者完全可以接受某一期甚至连续多期活动没有OKB质押池。平台可以降低OKB参与质押的频率,把原本分散的奖励集中起来,间隔久一点,但每次出现时收益更高一点。收益低到这种程度,还不如不上。 但平台经常推出这种影响持有者预期和情绪的活动。一次低收益可能没什么,反复出现,消耗的就不只是一次收益,而是持有者对后续权益的期待。 OKB目前还没有形成足够强、能够被市场明显感知的价值捕获,很多价值仍然停留在未来预期中,尚未充分落地。我相信落地后会有不错的反应,但在没落地之前,他就是和平台挂钩的平台币,平台有利好,它就涨一点,平台让人失望,它的持有预期也会受到影响。也正因为真正的价值捕获还没有充分落地,平台不是更应该维护支持者的信心吗?说到底,2.6%的收益可能不多,但它传递出来的信号很差。真的很膈应人。 以上是吐槽,下面说建议。 建议:降低质押频率,打造专属OKB持有者的质押活动。1是不影响你们与项目方的曝光约定,2是强化OKB享有稀缺权益的感觉。 根据质押规定,质押的OKB越多,收益率越低。可以对OKB持有者做限定,根据持有时间分配质押额度,享受不同比例收益。 这样OKB的稀缺性、长期持仓的动力,持有者更强的宣传动力以及低收益的负面情绪。都会全面转好,同时平台也没多付出什么。 我理解OKX目前正在走合规路线,也理解闪赚活动需要兼顾项目曝光和用户参与。但合规、拉新与维护OKX支持者的信心并不冲突吧? $OKB ————————— 分享是为了进步,交流是为了修正认知。期待不同观点。
阿K的加密笔记
阿K的加密笔记
《特朗普传媒也做了一回大韭菜》 1、微策略再次出售1638枚BTC,出售后的费用用于支付利息和回购STRC。 我的理解:在微策略不缺少现金的情况下还出售BTC,我能想到的原因只有一个,他目前想保护他的融资渠道。这次出售只占她持仓的0.19%,用这0.19%去消灭当前约13.5%的当前年度现金成本。他在用极其低的成本去修复那台继续让他能够融资购买更多BTC的机器。并不是不看好BTC。里面涉及很多资本结构上的弯弯绕绕,就不一一细说。我们作为小散户只需要知道他不是不看好BTC就行。而他每月出售对BTC价格影响也非常有限。假设他大额出售造成巨大利空,对我们来说反而可能出现捡便宜筹码的机会。怎么看都是好事,所以不用过多担心。 2、特朗普传媒以均价118,522 美元买了 11,542 枚 BTC,共花费约13.7亿美元。 已经陆续开始转入合作平台Crypto,如果出售那平均卖价只有 74,855 美元。 刚又疑似卖出 2,628 枚,约 1.65 亿美元。 账面合计亏 5.55 亿美元。 我的理解:特朗普传媒把BTC转到Crypto。首先声明这是他们合作方,因此我们不知道他到底是不是出售。但不管他是不是出售,他们这次都是做了一回大韭菜。这些机构只是比我们更有钱,并不代表每一次操作都比我们高明,面对所谓的“机构买入”,还是要祛魅。 3、《CLARITY》法案若失败或引发加密市场新一轮下跌 我的理解:CLARITY法案今年本就通过概率很小,这个在之前的分享中有详细拆解过。而这次重提是时间节点比较近,只要在8.7之前没有推进,短期对BTC来说就属于利空了。而Polymarket年内签署概率已经进一步降到约27%。所以8.7没有推进,就需要等到9月14日复会后。 所以关键决策时间窗口如下:8月7日没有进展,就需要延期到9.14至10.2。如果10.2还没进展就需要延到12.18。在美国法律上绝对终点时间是12.18。 题外话:突然发现他们这时间与上一轮BTC筑底反弹时间有点重合。 2022年8月初,BTC还在2.2万至2.3万美元附近,随后回调至2万美元左右,并横盘了两个月。11月再次跌至1.6万美元附近,横盘到年底后,才在2023年1月开始上涨。 这个时间上的重合确实很有意思,但只能作为观察,不能拿来推导今年的BTC走势 ————————— 分享是为了进步,交流是为了修正认知。期待不同观点。