From last week to this week, several Fde board members have sent hawkish policy signals, targeting rate hikes in December as well as possible hikes in January and March 2027. Why have multiple board members suddenly guided market expectations to counter Wash's policy?
From last week to this week, multiple Fed governors have sent hawkish policy signals, locking in a December rate hike and pushing the possibility of rate hikes in January and March 2027. Why have several governors suddenly guided market expectations to counter the Wash policy? From November 2nd to now, 10 Fed governors have evaluated the current inflation and the market's future policy expectation signals. Except for Bowman and Goolsbee, who are considered "conditional hawks," the others hold clearly hawkish views! More importantly, among these 10 governors, 6 have voting rights on the FOMC, which means that nominally at least 50% of the governors support a December rate hike or even more hawkish expectations! This has led the market to basically lock in the probability of a December rate hike and push the possibility of consecutive rate hikes in January and March 2027. It is still uncertain whether the market expects the rate hike cycle to return. This phenomenon of multiple governors continuously releasing policy expectations is rare today, especially since Wash took office advocating reducing forward guidance on policy and repeatedly promoting this policy. Subsequently, many governors began to reduce their external speaking frequency and discussions about interest rates, but these past two weeks have been very unusual. I believe this is clearly a sign of increasing internal division within the Federal Reserve. The core issue is not the policy itself but a key personnel appointment! In June 2027, an important regional bank president—John Williams—faces a career turning point: "retirement." Williams is 65, the retirement age, and this key regional president has served at the Fed even longer than Powell by over a year.
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