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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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Fed内部目前除了敏感的人事任命以及政策预期之外,还多了一项博弈——未来会议议程安排 Fed官网公布了2027年议息会议的暂停安排,8次会议不变,但是10月议息会议不做利率调整决议,仅做货币政策讨论,并且将原本12月的议息会议提前到11月底 此前沃什多次表示议息会议政策改革与FOMC委员进行多次讨论,目前已经出现初步方案,但是该方案为“修订后得暂时方案”并非最终方案,意味着最终方案并非全面采纳 尤其是关于点阵图是否会被取消,以及2028年是否将会议缩减为6次依旧是未定事项 沃什在试图减少Fed官员与外界沟通以及对市场的影响力,这与近期美联储理事频繁发言也形成了鲜明对比 如果沃什改革政策落实,意味着未来单次利率会议的市场重要性可能上升,市场对每次利率决议的波动性也在增加 不过最终政策能否落地,实施,目前来看还是不能太乐观,民主党掌控国会之后很明显Fed内部的分化更加严重,后续可以关注11月份公布的10月议息会议记录,看美联储内部对此事如何讨论!#美联储鹰派信号密集释放,12月加息节奏分歧显现
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
From last week to this week, several Fde board members have sent hawkish policy signals, targeting rate hikes in December as well as possible hikes in January and March 2027. Why have multiple board members suddenly guided market expectations to counter Wash's policy?
From last week to this week, multiple Fed governors have sent hawkish policy signals, locking in a December rate hike and pushing the possibility of rate hikes in January and March 2027. Why have several governors suddenly guided market expectations to counter the Wash policy? From November 2nd to now, 10 Fed governors have evaluated the current inflation and the market's future policy expectation signals. Except for Bowman and Goolsbee, who are considered "conditional hawks," the others hold clearly hawkish views! More importantly, among these 10 governors, 6 have voting rights on the FOMC, which means that nominally at least 50% of the governors support a December rate hike or even more hawkish expectations! This has led the market to basically lock in the probability of a December rate hike and push the possibility of consecutive rate hikes in January and March 2027. It is still uncertain whether the market expects the rate hike cycle to return. This phenomenon of multiple governors continuously releasing policy expectations is rare today, especially since Wash took office advocating reducing forward guidance on policy and repeatedly promoting this policy. Subsequently, many governors began to reduce their external speaking frequency and discussions about interest rates, but these past two weeks have been very unusual. I believe this is clearly a sign of increasing internal division within the Federal Reserve. The core issue is not the policy itself but a key personnel appointment! In June 2027, an important regional bank president—John Williams—faces a career turning point: "retirement." Williams is 65, the retirement age, and this key regional president has served at the Fed even longer than Powell by over a year.

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