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挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
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AI基建财报周开幕:Lumentum今晚打头阵,光模块三巨头集体交卷 今晚,美股盘后,有三份财报你要盯着。 Lumentum,8月11日盘后。 CoreWeave,同一天盘后。 Coherent,8月12日盘后。 再加上8月13日的应用材料和同一天的思科。 这一周,是整个AI基建产业链的“全链条期中考”。 光模块、算力云、网络设备、半导体设备——四个环节,五天之内全部交卷。 先说今晚第一个登场的——Lumentum。 这家公司什么来头?谷歌TPU AI算力链最核心的光学组件供应商,同时也是英伟达和AMD GPU算力链不可或缺的光模块玩家。 两边通吃。 市场预期它Q4营收9.88亿美元,同比暴增105%。每股收益从去年同期的88美分飙到接近3美元。 但问题来了——这支票年初至今涨了140%,过去一年涨了345%。现在市盈率165倍。 165倍的市盈率,容不得半点闪失。 期权市场已经定价:财报后股价波动±13%。 涨13%还是跌13%,全看今晚数字够不够硬。 同一天登场的CoreWeave,又是另一个故事。 AI算力租赁龙头,市场预期Q2营收25.5亿美元,同比暴增110%。 但另一边——净利润预期-7.86亿美元,同比恶化170%。 收入翻倍,亏损也在翻倍。 一季度末合同收入积压订单994亿美元,但调整后营业利润率从17%暴跌到1%。 这就是AI算力租赁的生意本质:订单堆成山,利润薄如纸。 再说Coherent。 周四盘后接棒,市场预期Q4每股收益1.62美元,同比增长62%;营收19.9亿美元,同比增长30%。 但有意思的是——就在今天盘中,Coherent跌了12%,Lumentum跌了7%。 财报还没出,股价先跌为敬。 为什么?太贵了。Coherent市盈率160倍,Lumentum146倍。资金在财报前主动降仓,锁定利润。 这就是高位票的宿命:财报好,叫符合预期。财报差,叫万劫不复。 周五,应用材料压轴。 市场预期Q3营收90亿美元,同比增长23%;每股收益3.36美元,同比增长35%。 但有个细节值得注意——上一季度,应用材料营业利润增长20%,自由现金流却从10.6亿美元骤降到2.1亿美元。 赚的钱去哪了?库存、资本开支、营运资本——全被AI基建的扩张吃掉了。 这个剧本,跟几周前的谷歌特斯拉一模一样。 最后说思科。 8月12日盘后,跟Coherent同一天。 市场预期Q4营收168.5亿美元,同比增长15%。 但真正让市场兴奋的是AI订单——思科把2026财年AI基础设施订单预期从50亿美元大幅上调到约90亿美元,几乎翻倍。 40年的老牌网络设备商,靠AI重新激活了增长。 所以这一周,你到底在看什么? 看一件事:AI基建的高投入,到底能不能兑现成实打实的收入和利润。 Lumentum的105%增长——是AI光模块真实需求,还是一次性备货? CoreWeave的994亿订单——是真实合同,还是包含取消条款的框架协议? Coherent的30%增长——利润率能不能守住? 应用材料的现金流——扩张的代价,还能扛多久? 市场已经过了“讲故事就能涨”的阶段。 现在要的是数字。 AI基建这个赛道,没人怀疑长期逻辑。 但短期,估值已经打满了。 Lumentum涨了140%才来发财报,CoreWeave烧了几百亿才换来994亿订单。 这个位置,财报超预期是应该的,不及预期是要命的。 这一周,别只看营收和利润。 看现金流,看订单质量,看资本开支指引。 这些才是决定股价能不能继续往上走的真正答案。 $LITE $CRWV $CSCO #财报观察员:AI基建财报接力登场
挖矿的小羊
挖矿的小羊
The world's largest Bitcoin corporate treasury has started selling at a loss—are you still mindlessly hoarding? If you were managing a company's treasury with 840,000 BTC on the books—accounting for 4% of the total supply—how would you operate? Hold tight and never sell, or adjust flexibly based on the situation? There was once someone who gave you a firm answer: never sell. Now that person has changed their mind. On August 10, Strategy filed with the SEC: last week they sold 1,690 BTC at an average price of $64,262, cashing out $108.6 million. All proceeds were used to repurchase STRC preferred shares. This transaction resulted in a loss of $18.8 million. What’s even more painful is—this isn’t the first time. Over the past six weeks, Strategy has sold a total of 6,916 BTC, cashing out $429 million. Six weeks ago, their holdings were 847,363 BTC. Now, 840,447 BTC. The world's largest Bitcoin corporate treasury is continuously reducing its position at a loss. Some might say: it’s just 1,690 BTC, less than 0.2% of total holdings, no big deal. But the issue isn’t here. The issue is—the phrase "never sell" has been removed from the company’s dictionary. In June this year, Strategy announced a financing model reform: the board authorized Bitcoin sales for USD reserves, preferred stock dividends, and share buybacks, with a cap of $1.25 billion. CEO Phong Le’s exact words: "We now position ourselves as the central bank of Bitcoin." In plain terms: I used to be a hardcore bull, now I’m a market maker. From "only buy, never sell" to "dynamic management"—this pivot is ten thousand times more important than Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. But interestingly—while Strategy is selling, others are buying. Strive increased holdings by 6,236 BTC in Q2, buying a total of 12,237 BTC in the first half of the year. Total holdings surpassed 20,000 BTC, ranking seventh among corporate Bitcoin holders. BitMine is pushing a $4 billion stock buyback plan while continuing to buy ETH. Last week, they bought another 7,430 ETH. In the same market, some are selling, some are buying. Corporate treasuries are shifting from "everyone hoards" to "each going their own way." So the question is—if you managed this treasury, what would you choose? Long-term holders would say: BTC is bullish long-term; short-term volatility doesn’t matter. Strategy’s current average cost is $75,385, with an unrealized loss of $8.6 billion. But if you believe BTC will hit $1 million in ten years, this unrealized loss is nothing. Flexible managers would say: a company isn’t a personal wallet; there are salaries to pay, debts to settle, shareholders to answer to. With over $40 billion unrealized loss and $4.65 billion cash reserves—what if another bear market hits? What will you use to withstand it? Both sides have valid points. But the real answer is much more complex. To be honest— The premise of long-term holding is: you can afford it. Strategy can continue operating despite an $8.6 billion unrealized loss because it has financing capabilities, brand premium, and market trust. An ordinary company would have gone bankrupt long ago with such losses. Long-term holding is not a strategy; it’s a privilege. Do you have that privilege? If not, don’t blindly imitate the whales holding tight. Their positions are 1,000 times yours, but their margin for error is 10,000 times yours. This round of corporate treasury divergence actually reveals a deeper truth— BTC as a "corporate reserve asset" is shifting from faith to mathematics. It used to be "just buy and that’s it." Now you have to calculate: opportunity cost, liquidity needs, balance sheet matching, shareholder return expectations. BTC is no longer Saylor’s personal religion; it has become a business. Business means accounting. Accounting means you might sell. Finally, here are three judgments for you— First: Strategy will not stop selling. Only a small portion of the $1.25 billion authorization has been used; more is coming. Second: But they won’t liquidate entirely. Holding 840,447 BTC, accounting for 4% of total supply, is itself a moat. Third: The era of "net buying" by corporate treasuries is over. The future will be a diversified pattern of accumulation, reduction, buybacks, and dividends. What does this mean for retail investors? It means you can no longer use "even Strategy is buying" as your reason for mindless hoarding. Because even Strategy itself no longer uses that reason. $BTC $ETH $SOL #Strategy再卖1690枚BTC,企业财库出现分化

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