Your BTC candlestick chart is actually a shadow of oil prices and Federal Reserve speeches.
Woke up this morning and glanced at my account.
BTC is still hovering around $64,000. No rise, no fall, dead calm.
But have you ever thought—the real factor deciding your position direction isn’t those few lines on the candlestick chart.
It’s the Strait of Hormuz.
On August 5, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Karbasian said that the Iran-Oman agreement on navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is "close to finalization."
The market breathed a sigh of relief. Oil prices fell.
But three days have passed.
Insiders revealed: reaching an agreement doesn’t mean the strait will immediately reopen. Iran also said: as long as the U.S. continues hostile actions, the strait will remain closed.
Even harsher— the Iranian parliament is reviewing a bill banning U.S. and Israeli ships from entering the Strait of Hormuz, with fines up to one-fifth of the cargo value for violations.
What’s the point of signing an agreement if it can’t be enforced? It’s as if it wasn’t signed.
Now, let me draw you a transmission chain. This chain is deciding the life or death of your position.
👇
Strait of Hormuz navigation blocked → Oil prices surge → Inflation expectations rise → Federal Reserve rate hikes → Interest-free asset BTC under pressure → Your position shrinks
Let’s break it down one by one.
First link: How important is the Strait of Hormuz?
About one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this strait. On July 23, the navigation volume dropped to single digits.
Second link: Oil prices have gone crazy.
Today, WTI crude rose 4.06%, closing at $78.27/barrel. Brent crude rose 5.04%.
A 5% increase in one day. Geopolitical risk premium is being re-priced into oil prices.
Third link: Inflation is about to rise.
Energy prices are a core input variable for CPI. Every extra day the strait remains closed adds more upward pressure on oil prices. The market predicts August CPI will rise 0.3% month-over-month and 2.9% year-over-year, the highest since January.
Fourth link: The Federal Reserve can’t sit still.
Latest reports: Fed Chair Waller has opened the door to a rate hike in September. Insiders say if inflation data remains high in the coming weeks, Waller will prepare to raise rates at the September meeting.
U.S. Treasury yields have already moved first— the 10-year Treasury yield surged 6 basis points to 4.67%. The market is voting with its feet: "Waller, we don’t trust your tough talk, we trust the data."
Fifth link: BTC under pressure.
This is the most critical link.
Previously, geopolitical conflicts (like Russia-Ukraine) simultaneously pushed up oil prices and the safe-haven demand for gold/BTC.
But this time it’s different.
The weight of "rate hike suppression" outweighs "safe-haven demand."
That’s why gold actually fell when the war escalated.
BTC is the same. Fed rate hikes → interest-free assets sold off → liquidity tightens → your position shrinks.
Today BTC is consolidating above $64,000. But consolidation doesn’t mean safety.
Understand now?
Your BTC candlestick chart is actually a shadow of oil prices and Federal Reserve speeches.
If you don’t understand geopolitics, you won’t understand the direction of the candlesticks.
Finally, here are two indicators to watch:
👉 WTI crude price— if oil breaks $80, inflation expectations will be uncontrollable.
👉 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield— if yield breaks 4.7%, the probability of Fed rate hikes rises sharply.
These two indicators can predict BTC’s mid-term direction better than any candlestick.
Stop staring at the 15-minute candlestick.
Look at oil prices. Look at U.S. Treasury yields.
That’s the real "fundamental" of your position.
Every day the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, your BTC moves one step further from $65,000.
$BTC$BZ$CL#伊朗阿曼通航协议遇阻，油价风险再升温
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