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44,000 Jobs vs 3.5% Inflation: The Fed Is Caught in a Bind, and We Suffer Along Last night, the US July ADP employment data was released—44,000. The market expected 75,000. The previous value was 95,000 (already revised down). This means the US private sector added the fewest jobs since January this July. All economists' forecasts missed the mark. The employment engine has stalled. But— June CPI year-over-year was 3.5%, core CPI 2.6%. The Fed's 2% target is still far off. Fed Governor Cook said last week: "Inflation risk is higher than employment risk." Dallas Fed President Logan was even more blunt: "Every month of inflation above target continuously increases the budget pressure on Americans' lives." On the other hand, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari said: "Better to take small steps now than to wait." Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said: If inflation doesn't cool quickly, "rate hikes should be considered." But New York Fed President Williams is dovish: "Current monetary policy stance is just right." One side is shouting "raise," the other "pause." The Fed itself is in turmoil; how can the market follow? CME data tells you— Probability of a 25 basis point hike in September: 54.4%. Probability of holding rates steady in September: 45.6%. 54.4 vs. 45.6. How is this different from flipping a coin? The market itself doesn't know which side to bet on. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $211.5 million on Tuesday. But what about Bitcoin's price? Still around $64,000, unmoved. Institutions are buying, pouring in real money. But retail investors dare not follow. A $211.5 million net inflow can't even push the $65,000 threshold. Why? Because no one knows what will happen next week. Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls—if the data continues to be poor, rate hike probability drops, bullish. Next Wednesday's CPI—if inflation remains sticky, rate hike probability rises, bearish. Bullish and bearish sentiments keep switching between these two reports. If you enter today, you might get buried tomorrow. What is the Fed's current predicament? Raise rates → suppress inflation → but may directly kill jobs. Don't raise rates → save jobs → but inflation solidifies, 3.5% never drops to 2%. No matter which side is chosen, someone gets hurt. Walsh says there is no "conflict" between the dual mandates. But the market only sees conflict. Employment data is shouting "pause," inflation data is shouting "raise." The Fed is caught in a bind, and we holders suffer along. The script for the next two weeks is already written: Friday Nonfarm Payrolls release → market reacts first. Next Wednesday CPI release → market reacts in the opposite direction. Between "weak employment → no rate hike" and "persistent inflation → continue raising," the market will jump back and forth. Prepare for a roller coaster. Don't chase highs. Don't go all in. Don't fight the data. $BTC $ETH #ADP就业降温，联储政策分歧加剧