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Kshsb
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前几天我说$SPY 非常接近新高,只差不到0.3%,今天这条线正式被踩过去了。标普500昨夜收盘7737点,涨了1.79%,这是两个月以来第一次刷新收盘纪录,正式超过6月初创下的前高。道指同步收在54085点,历史上第一次站上54000点整数关口,单日涨了907点。纳指涨2.59%收在26584点,不过距离自己6月的历史高点还差大概2%,三大指数里唯一还没补齐的。
这次突破的驱动力挺扎实,不是单纯的情绪宣泄。财报季这块,标普500里已经公布二季报的304家公司里85.2%超预期,远高于67.5%的历史平均水平,$PLTR 财报后暴涨29.5%创下2024年2月以来最大单日涨幅,直接带动科技板块以4.1%的涨幅成为11个板块里表现最好的一个。另一条线是地缘政治,市场在押注霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的谈判有进展,布伦特原油应声跌了5.7%以上,10年期美债收益率也回落了7.3个基点,通胀压力缓解的预期给了市场额外的加分项。
我自己会把这次突破看成基本面和情绪面难得的共振,财报数据是真实的,不是单纯靠估值堆出来的。但美银这边的季节性数据也得放在心里,8月到10月历史上是标普表现最弱的三个月窗口,新高刚创出来就一头扎进这个季节性偏弱的区间,这个组合值得接下来几周多留意。
#标普500首次站上7700点，创历史新高 #美伊谈判推进，油价跌破80美元 $SPY
Kshsb
What is noteworthy now is that this time the S&P approaching new highs is not solely driven by a few heavyweight tech stocks. In July, equal-weight indices like the S&P actually outperformed the Nasdaq 100, indicating that this recovery involves a broader participation than previous rounds and is not purely an AI giant solo performance.
Wall Street's earnings growth forecast for the S&P for the whole year has also been raised from less than 16% at the beginning of the year to 25%. If earnings can keep pace with the index recovery, this current approach to new highs is not simply an overextension of sentiment but is supported by fundamentals. This differs from previous rallies that were purely driven by valuation expansion.
#30年期美债，顶部还是新起点？ #美日确认联合购汇 $SPY
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