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Let's separately discuss this week's main macro themes. The three major themes this week are geopolitics, macro data, and US stock earnings reports. Geopolitics focuses on whether the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman can reach a new agreement to keep the strait practically open. Macro data will verify whether US economic data is strong or indicates a soft landing, along with related inflation and employment conditions. US stock earnings reports, from large corporations' capital expenditures to small and medium enterprises, will verify profitability and impact valuation adjustments across the entire AI industry chain. The best scenario for these three main themes is a mild economic slowdown, weakening employment, easing inflation reducing interest rate pressure, geopolitical easing lowering energy prices to ease inflation pressure, and stable US earnings reports providing more confidence to the AI industry chain, allowing valuations to stabilize and be digested. Tonight's US July ISM Manufacturing PMI data is the first verification data in the macro data set. Honestly, the result is not very optimistic. Tonight's data shows that US manufacturing did not cool down but rather heated up again, accelerating manufacturing. Demand, production, and employment sub-indices are all growing. Price pressure (inflation pressure) has decreased somewhat, which counts as data showing strong economic growth with marginal inflation improvement, supporting a soft landing expectation. However, a soft economic landing cannot change the current interest rate pressure. Although inflation has improved, the improvement is insufficient. The relatively strong economic growth offsets the easing of inflation pressure, and employment is also strong. Next, market expectations will have to be adjusted based on upcoming ISM Services PMI and the large and small nonfarm payroll reports. If after this Friday's major nonfarm payroll release, the macro data can be revised back to an environment of mild economic growth with declining inflation and employment, it will be most favorable for the current interest rate and risk markets. Looking at the current trends of the US dollar, gold, and 1-year short-term bonds, tonight's data deepened interest rate concerns, slightly raising rate hike expectations, strengthening 1-year yields and the US dollar, while gold was slightly pressured! For US stocks and #Bitcoin, short-term gains benefit from technical rebound repair + stable macroeconomic conditions + geopolitical factors such as the Iran-Oman agreement leading to lower crude oil prices. However, with subsequent macro data revisions, earnings reports, and developments in the US-Iran situation this week, whether optimism can be sustained still needs further confirmation! #财报观察员：本周四场开奖，Circle压轴 #美日确认联合购汇