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Cato_KT
Cato_KT
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美伊局势迎来转机,海峡真的可以开通吗? 就在北京时间今晚19点开始,沙特阿拉比亚电视台、卡塔尔外交部发言人、美国财长贝森特三方消息验证,霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的安排将会在未来几个小时到明天公布 虽然消息并非来自美伊、阿曼三方的官方报道,但是其中包含海湾国家与美国高层表态,交叉验证让消息准确定大大提高 接下来关注,美、伊朗、阿曼三方的官方报道是否进一步确定消息准确性,至于特朗普的言论暂时忽略 一旦确定新的海峡管理方案公布,重点观察方案中关于海峡收费问题,如果还是伊朗收费为主,协议很难得到美国认可,反之,如果是以服务费、共同收取为主,这可能是海峡共管的最佳收费方案,也是美国可以接受的 一旦海峡方案确定,意味着美伊可以重回谈判桌,接下里就要关注美伊官方何时确定谈判地点与时间,而这个趋势也意味着近一个月的美伊新冲突告一段落 而且我大胆的认为,这次的美伊和平窗口+海峡问题解决,可以换来最起码3个月地缘乐观缓冲窗口,起码在中期选举结果公布前,美伊之间会保持一定克制,重心会放到双边技术谈判上 当然,别指望美伊之间的最终谈判可以短期解决,这是一个世纪难题,估计我们看到的是就是双方谈判与撕逼拉扯的过程 至于原油,以美油为例,一旦新的海峡管理方案公布得到确认,先看70-75,一旦美伊确定谈判地点与时间,可以看65附近的情况了,局势正在一步一步乐观,恭喜各位终于摆脱了一个地缘压力点!#美伊重回谈判桌,油价回吐
Cato_KT
Cato_KT
Obviously, Trump's remarks in the early morning once again triggered a strong diplomatic rebuttal from Iran, and crude oil prices continued to rebound. However, according to the latest news, the progress of the agreement between Iran and Oman seems to be good, but the final result has not been announced. It seems the market believes that the statements from U.S. officials are more reliable than Trump's remarks at this time. But one thing to note is that I cross-verified multiple sources, and the progress of the Iran-Oman agreement is highly credible, but the so-called "50-50 split" service fee has not been confirmed and is less likely. This may be part of the reason why the short-term decline in crude oil prices is limited. Of course, the main reason is that no official statement from Oman or Iran has been seen yet, so further verification is needed. Overall, the current pace is optimistic! #美伊重回谈判桌,油价回吐

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